Panthera Resources Share Discussion Threads

[edhellas] 04/9/2023 19:17

To be honest I was hoping we'd have a higher share price off the LCM news, bit disapointed in just 9.15p. IMO we're in a much stronger position than December 2020 when the share price peaked around 33p. As Mark said, we're currently trading at a signficant discount.

Hopefully we'll get some whiff of a deal or BIT engagement in the court case next week. I suspect if we go the BIT route, an announcement of the compensation claim will weigh heavily on the share price

My only concern with the BIT is whether we can claim for the 6.7moz that the govt. claimed the land has, or if we must claim the 1.74moz that PAT uncovered

[74tom] 04/9/2023 09:12

Yeah it's very much under the radar, even a modest amount of PI buying amounting to a few £m would likely re-rate the shares by a large absolute value.

A £13m market cap with a very real claim on a 7Moz gold resource in a decent jurisdiction subject is unheard of in my experience. It's not like they are dealing with the DRC here...

[punting] 03/9/2023 07:39

So that's about 7 m/oz, not to be sniffed at!From memory Greatland have recently updated to 5.5moz with a 30% ownership only.Given that PAT will (if they don't go to arbitration) will JV 60/40 maybe?I was wondering if the GoR/I 'forced' PAT to officially announce the LCM money, even though they intended to do a deal with PAT.The Gov would well be aware that it would cost PAT a load more money, a good kick in the shin so to speak.Back to GGP, they have about 30plus x more shares than PAT too....big rise ahead for us.

[edhellas] 02/9/2023 14:06

"So I don't expect any of their secondary assets to progress much beyond their current state until India is concluded."


Agreed, we've got some updates pending but they're all from relatively cheap work. We'll probably keep them ticking over quietly, but the main prizes are Bhukia and Cascades, both of which now have a decent amount of funding.

PAT are still seeking an amicable deal on Bhukia too. If we get it, we'll need lots of cash to turn it into a mine (which will take a few years). Mark is securing a jv partner to help with this, but the company still needs to trim costs where possible.

[74tom] 02/9/2023 12:18

The CEO stated on the proactive that he's very conscious of minimising dilution - there is another podcast from 2021 when he says the same thing, "dilution is the biggest cost to a small cap explorer". So I don't expect any of their secondary assets to progress much beyond their current state until India is concluded.

Bhukia is where all of the excitement lies, 114mt @1.95g\t is spectacular, it's also open pit so would be far lower CAPEX than something like GGP. The IRR would be through the roof. Has to be attractive to someone like Barrick Gold.

[punting] 02/9/2023 08:15

Visit PATS website and click on Bhukia project , map of location. Cross reference on Google earth Bhukia is just south of Jagphura. Interesting that it's not in a remote area at all.Some info on in ground resources/ expected resources on the website.I wasn't too sure how to interpret these figures.

[punting] 01/9/2023 21:11

And 20% of the asset is pin money really

[punting] 01/9/2023 21:09

Yes 7 million v market cap of about 12 million doesn't really add up .

[edhellas] 01/9/2023 20:49

We do, but $7m is a lot given our current market cap. We'll need a deal in India in order to get that kind of money.

[sutherland1] 01/9/2023 20:25

If I remember correctly we have an option to go up to 30% on cascades for around 7m$ .

[edhellas] 01/9/2023 19:37

Not really. There is a commonly referred "gold in ground" value assigned to a company, but it's not really possible to extract that into a share price. If you look at the old report from Cipher, the average gold in ground value was $63oz, median $39oz. Their data was based on various companies from 1990-2013.

The size of the resource did not correlate to the size of the gold deposit.
There was almost no geographical variation.
Apart from a small number of projects, there was no correlation to the current price of gold.

Obviously a lot has changed since 2013, but I wouldn't place much importance on the size of the deposit at this stage. Also PAT only owns 20% of Cascades currently, so we won't see a huge increase in share price

[punting] 01/9/2023 18:32

Reading up on Cascades , and it appears low grade but low mining costs.I think PAT are looking for 2moz's, is there a ball part figure per million oz that collates to the sp?

[punting] 01/9/2023 13:14

Thanks Ed , fair point. It also looks like updates are due soon on a couple of other mines. I would like to think regular drops of good news would lead the share price towards the 60p plus mark. Looking at the previous high I don't think 60p is a too outrageous target for November time.

[edhellas] 01/9/2023 12:04

Allenby put a value of around 30p last year but they're a paid service so their opinion isn't worth much.

I think when we know more about the arbitration we'll get more interest. I.e are we definitely invoking the BIT, or will we get a deal in the next 3 months? If we invoke the BIT, the share price will adjust once we know how much the compensation claim is for.

[punting] 01/9/2023 08:31

New here so hello to all!I have bought in to PAT and followed for a while.Given everything going on in India and with the other mines, overall it seems very undervalued at 12 to 13 million?When do you thing a broker will stick there neck out and put a value on it?

[dumbo4] 31/8/2023 18:34

Thanks again tom. That's really helpful. Yes, agree with the last para.

[74tom] 31/8/2023 17:14

Ok, have been through both of LIT's other listed investments in this space to confirm the broad timeline.

GRX (£133m cap, from £20m at funding confirmation)

1. June 2020 - A$18m funding announced from LCM to Prairie Mining
2. September 2020 - Damages claim against Poland commences
3. June 2021 - £806m statement of claim filed
4. July 2022 - Statement of reply filed amending claim to £737m
5. November 2022 - Arbitration hearing claim completed

The last news was as follows;

"Following completion of the hearing, the Arbitral Tribunal will render an Award (i.e., the legal term used for a decision by the tribunal) in due course. There is no specified date for an Award to be rendered."

So they went from funding to trial completion in under 2.5 years.

IDA own 62.5% of the $109m award and owe $17m to LCM, so will have a net receivable of ~$51m if it's confirmed. So they are trading at ~40% of that amount.

1. August 2020 - $4.65m funding announced from LCM
2. September 2020 - $95m claim lodged with ISCID
3. April 2021 - first procedural hearing
4. July 2021 - Full claim submitted to ISCID (same as step 3 for GRX)
5. January 2022 - confirmed arbitration timetable finalised & conclusion set for mid 2023 (which was hit)
6. February 2023 - completion of evidentiary hearing
7. July 2023 - $109m award made against Tanzania

So IDA went end to end in just under 3 years

Based on the above, I believe PAT should have a 3 year timeline, the enforcement of any award is obviously a different issue, that bridge should be crossed post arbitration.

Given the Bhukia license has been 'stayed' by the Rajasthan court since late 2019 there is also a genuine prospect of it being granted to avoid all the above drama & defendant legal fees. In that case you'd have a £14m market cap with a 7Moz, tier 1 gold resource, which would be far more exciting than any arbitration outcome.

[dumbo4] 31/8/2023 15:09

Thanks tom, that's useful as I'm new to this case. Dipped my toe in the water yesterday. LCM are also supporting GreenX Metals (GRX) in their claim against the Polish gov. Mcap now £109m with a claim of £737m but it has other assets. I bought some at <14p (mcap £30m)in Sep'22. The claim is 25 times that mcap. The case is now 4 years on, but as you say every one is different.
I do hold IDA but getting money out of Tanz can be tricky. At 6c(Oz) it's mcap is US$21m. Award is $109m but Tanz will appeal. IDA have other assets too.

[74tom] 31/8/2023 14:14

On the other hand, another ISCID arbitration case funded by LCM was won by Indiana Resources a few weeks ago, to the tune of $109m



Every case is different and extremely complex. After a year of due diligence I find it hard to believe LCM would provide $13.6m funding unless the case had strong merit.

FWIW the below points from an RNS on 12/11/19 seem to sum up the local government dispute;

"The GoR has filed its long overdue reply to the Writ Petition filed with the Court by our JV partner, MMI. It is a disturbing fact that the reply took over a year from the filing of the writ petition and almost six months after the Court ordered the response to be submitted within four weeks.

Not surprisingly, after 11 years of ongoing delays, no fresh arguments have been introduced by the GoR in its reply. It simply reiterates the same three points made many times previously. These are:

1. Metal Mining India Pvt Ltd (MMI) did not qualify under Section 10A(2)(b) of the Mining Act amended in January 2015.

Panthera Comment: Section 10A(2)(b) provided an exception to the rule requiring all resources to be granted via an auction process and protected the rights of those who had carried out reconnaissance work prior to the 2015 amendment. This argument by the GoR has absolutely no basis, as the Directorate of Mines and Geology, Rajasthan, (DMG); Mines Department, Government of India; and the Joint Committee comprising of the DMG, Indian Bureau of Mines (IBM) and the GSI have all found that our PL application satisfied all conditions necessary to be saved under Section 10A(2)(b).

2. The PL area was not free at the time of the grant of the initial Reconnaissance Permit (RP) in 2004, thus MMI doesn't have preferential rights for the grant of the PL.

Panthera Comment: This argument is again baseless as the area in question was declared free by the GoR's own notifications prior to the execution of the RP in favour of MMI.

3. The RP was granted in favour of Metal Mining India Limited and the PL was applied for in the name of Metal Mining India Private Limited Limited and the change of name represents a change of entity and hence an illegal transfer of ownership occurred.

Panthera Comment: This argument is again baseless, as is laid out with absolute clarity in the Indian Companies Act of 2013, by simply changing the name of a company or the structure of a company, the identity of a company does not change. The GoR was informed of the change in the name of MMI and there is long history of communication from the GoR acknowledging this change. Thus, this argument too lacks substance"

[dumbo4] 31/8/2023 12:10

Thanks tom for that. Your 3 years might be a bit optimistic. Oxus ran for 8 years and Churchill Mining for 6 before final judgements. Both failed. Rusoro (TSXV:RML) has been running now for 12 years but is hopefully very near a final payout of the award authorised by the US court.
Agree that knowing the level of the claim will be critical in figuring the odds. As a rule of thumb you might reckon that the final payout or compromise settlement will be one third of the claim so the claim needs to be 20-30 times the current mcap. ie £260-£390m. I suspect it will be all of that.
Additionally, all the above co's have provided numerous news driven trading opportunities over the years and at such times the volatility can be quite high.
Having LCM at the helm is a big positive. GLA

[74tom] 30/8/2023 21:42

Video this morning is well worth a watch



It may take 3 years to reach a verdict but it won't take that long to know how much the claim is for or to formalise a JV deal with a gold major to develop the resource pending any tribunal decision. There is also the very real chance of a compromise being reached along the way which sees the license granted + compensation.

Bottom line, this company has a market cap of £13m and has what appears to be a very credible claim to 95% ownership of a 6.7Moz+ gold discovery. Could get very interesting indeed.

[edhellas] 30/8/2023 20:25

Likely 3 years, if not longer.

[dekle] 30/8/2023 17:28

How long would we need to wait for judgement? Getting cash out of India isn’t easy

[someuwin] 30/8/2023 11:34

Good new Panthera Resources interview - highly positive for LIT too.

[someuwin] 30/8/2023 10:14

Bought a few more today. Think we could see the share price appreciating strongly from here.