Panthera Resources Share Discussion Threads

[northstar88] 09/2/2024 12:57

Punting, 6 weeks is probably not long enough to respond to a huge claim like this. I suspect they will get the whole first quarter. I also don't think the claim amount will be lowered if they don't get anywhere with discussions, that is not in PAT's interest to do so. It is India that are on the rocks, so it is in their best interest to settle early for a guaranteed and quantifiable payout that will almost certainly be lower than the one requested to pay should they lose the court case. PAT will not go back of their own accord and lower the claim amount if they aren't getting anywhere as it just looks weak and they don't need to.

[punting] 06/2/2024 18:52

I reckon if the GOI don't respond ( but I hope they will) by the 6 weeks mark, the claim amount will drop.6 weeks is long enough to respond in some format to Pat/Faskens.

[punting] 06/2/2024 15:57

Or early settlement...its still possible.

[edhellas] 06/2/2024 14:01

Possibility of 500k - 3m Oz of low grade gold in Kalaka is great news. Mali has had it's fair share of geopolitical issues, and it's important to note that international mining companies tend to get approved and left alone, unlike India.

We will need to raise more cash to pay for the exploration or find another partner, both are fine with me.

Hopefully any further dilution comes after we find a new (higher) floor when the Bhukia claim amount is announced, which will be in the next couple of months.

[punting] 29/1/2024 19:53

Thanks Ed , that was a quick response from MB.I personally would be happy with an early settlement.

[edhellas] 29/1/2024 16:23

Email from Mark :

"There is no specific time period required for the NoA.

We do however wish that the matter will be resolved amicably which necessitates an appropriate period to allow the GoI to receive the NoD and then engage with Panthera. Subject to the term of any such engagement, we intend to lodge the NoA as soon as practicable."

[edhellas] 27/1/2024 20:36

If I were going off the RNS only, I'd expect the NoA by end of March.

But if I were going off the legislation, I'd have to assume it was 6 months after the. NoD:

"Article 13 Disputes between the Contracting Parties 1. Disputes between the Contracting Parties concerning the interpretation or application of this Agreement should, if possible, be settled through friendly consultations and negotiations. 2. If a dispute between the Contracting Parties cannot thus be settled within six months of one Contracting Party receiving a request in writing for such negotiations or consultations, it shall upon the request of either Contracting Party be submitted to an arbitral tribunal."

I don't see how we can issue the NoA by March if the agreement says they have 6 months

[someuwin] 27/1/2024 19:25

From the Allenby note 19th December...

Claim against the Republic of India
September announcement of pursuit of damages: Panthera announced on September 27, 2023, that it would be pursuing a claim for damages against the Republic of India relating to alleged breaches of the ABIT. The caveat is that there is no ‘meaningful correspondence’; in relation to the dispute or an amicable settlement. Near-term, there are three stages in initiating proceedings as follows:

– Delivery of a notice of dispute to the Government of India over the balance of Q4 2023.

– Delivery of a notice of arbitration to the Government of India in Q1 2024.

– Constitute an arbitration tribunal within two months of delivery of the notice of arbitration.

At this stage Panthera’s claim for damages has not been quantified. We would expect an announcement on this subject in early 2024 at the commencement of the arbitration process.

...

Share price catalysts

We see plenty of scope for influential news flow and share price catalysts in the months ahead as follows:

– Delivery of a notice of dispute concerning Bhukia to the Government of India over the balance of 2023.

– Delivery of a notice of arbitration to the Government of India in Q1 2024. Simultaneously there may be an announcement on the claim for damages visa-vis Bhukia. This is likely to be the most influential development for the share price in the coming months.

– An announcement concerning the completion of DFR’s 10,000m Cascades drilling programme possibly in Q1 2024.

– An upgrade of the Cascades resource base possibly during 2024 following the current drilling programme. This could potentially be a prelude to a PFS.

[edhellas] 27/1/2024 19:17

Normally calendar, but I am confused by the last one since the GoI should have 6 months from the NoD to the arbitration announcement. So I don't see how the arbitration can be in Q1 calendar. But Q1 financial seems to line up better. I'll ask the company

[punting] 27/1/2024 18:43

Does anyone actually know if pats rns info are calendar year or financial year?

[punting] 22/1/2024 22:12

I should have added, given we have circa 10 million quid no win no fee, my personal opinion is GoI will do a deal with PAT, before it gets as far as the international court.Next few weeks/months this time we will definitely find out, the waiting game will soon be over IMHO.

[punting] 22/1/2024 09:49

I think at least 2 yrs for judgement unfortunately. But I think the share price will go up a % of the claim..8 to 20% of the amount. But who knows!

[jettyboy] 22/1/2024 08:33

Once submitted, what's the likely timeline for the arbitration to take place and a judgment to be delivered?TIA

[edhellas] 20/1/2024 11:20

Taken from Article 13 (the BIT):

"1. Disputes between the Contracting Parties concerning the interpretation or application of this Agreement should, if possible, be settled through friendly consultations and negotiations.

2. If a dispute between the Contracting Parties cannot thus be settled within six months of one Contracting Party receiving a request in writing for such negotiations or consultations, it shall upon the request of either Contracting Party be submitted to an arbitral tribunal. Arbitration proceedings shall be instituted upon notice being given through the diplomatic channel by the Contracting Party instituting such proceedings to the other Contracting Party. "

Taken from PATs latest RNS:
"Following the delivery of the NoD and in the absence of any meaningful correspondence in relation to this matter from the Government of India or if no amicable settlement is reached, IGPL will subsequently deliver a notice of arbitration to the Government of India. Any such notice of arbitration is anticipated to be delivered to the Government of India in this first quarter of 2024"

This means that they have six months starting from January. PATs financial year starts in April, so Q1 for them means April-June, which lines up to the BIT. So we can expect PAT to have their arbitration prepared and submitted in July if things go well.

[jettyboy] 19/1/2024 16:44

A lovely way to end a Friday

[qs99] 19/1/2024 16:20

Maybe something is coming next week judging by today's rise? DYOR

[edhellas] 18/1/2024 19:31

They'll drag it out as much as possible. Fortunately, there are limits in the BIT.

[punting] 17/1/2024 22:15

This is like watching paint dry waiting for GoI response...

[edhellas] 02/1/2024 14:19

It'll be the market value of Bhukia, but they'll likely base is on the ~6moz gold (+copper) figures we had when the license was expropriated.

I'm hoping the auction takes place and sells for over $1b to give us justification, but Mark and Allenby seem to be trying to temper expectations to be $500m - $1b.

We'll have to cover the arbitrator fees etc. ourselves. Allenbys recent research note has some good estimations. How much we pay to LCM will depend on the how long this takes.

[edhellas] 02/1/2024 14:12

"The compensation referred to in paragraph 1 of this Article shall be computed on the basis of the market value of the investment immediately before the expropriation or impending expropriation became public knowledge. Where that value cannot be readily ascertained, the compensation shall be determined in accordance with generally recognised principles of valuation and equitable principles taking into account the capital invested, depreciation, capital already repatriated, replacement value, and other relevant factors."

"Each Contracting Party shall permit all funds of an investor of the other Contracting Party related to an investment in its territory to be freely transferred, without unreasonable delay and on a non-discriminatory basis. Such funds may include: (a) Capital and additional capital amounts used to maintain and increase investments; (b) Returns; (c) Repayments of any loan, including interest thereon, relating to the investment; (d) Payment of royalties and services fees relating to the investment; (e) Proceeds from sales of their shares; (f) Proceeds received by investors in case of sale or partial sale or liquidation; (g) The earnings of citizens/nationals of one Contracting Party who work in connection with investment in the territory of the other Contracting Party; (h) Compensation for loss payments made pursuant to Article 8."

"Each Party concerned shall bear the cost of its own arbitrator and its representation in the arbitral proceedings. The cost of the Chairperson in discharging his or her arbitral function and the remaining costs of the tribunal shall be borne equally by the Parties concerned. The tribunal may, however, in its decision direct that a higher proportion of costs shall be borne by one of the two Parties, and this award shall be binding on both Parties."

[punting] 02/1/2024 13:42

Yes Ed that $1 billion might be a bit low?..I don't know much about the rules in the bit..but can Pat claim for other costs, ie loss of revenue, legal costs ?

[edhellas] 02/1/2024 12:22

Good to see the ball is rolling.

"in the absence of any meaningful correspondence in relation to this matter from the Government of India or if no amicable settlement is reached, IGPL will subsequently deliver a notice of arbitration to the Government of India. Any such notice of arbitration is anticipated to be delivered to the Government of India in this first quarter of 2024"

They've mentioned the $1b Times of India figure a few times now, urging that it's unverified. Allenby have mentioned £500-1000m a couple of times too. Their most recent estimate was 38p I think.

[punting] 02/1/2024 10:06

I thought we might have seen some share action...maybe all traders are off with hangovers!

[qs99] 02/1/2024 07:55

Indeed, and the process begins. Can't see why they would put anything other than near a $billion in as a claim as PoG is so high now especially.

vs £8m market cap with top legal brand backing them.....

DYOR

[punting] 02/1/2024 07:30

Here we go...Nice RNS..