Panthera Resources Share Discussion Threads

[qs99] 20/5/2025 11:52:16

Just looked on website, 3 years typically unless agreement reached before hand.

Is that 3 years from yesterday's RNS or from previous initiation of process?

what we don't have any sight of is whether Indian govt feel any pressure at all to play ball and negotiate.

DYOR

[qs99] 20/5/2025 11:49:38

interesting posts, what is the timeframe here though?

[catsick] 20/5/2025 11:41:47

I think enough selling the news is done now, buying some here ...

[someuwin] 20/5/2025 11:09:48

VSA Capital. Summary of longer note out today...

Panthera Resources PLC#

BBG Ticker: PAT LN Price: 16p/sh. Mkt Cap: £38.6m BUY

Statement of Claim

Panthera Resources (PAT LN) has now published its claim having calculated damages due for the Bhukia project of US$1.58bn. This forms part of the Memorial which has now been filed by PAT setting out their case as Claimant. The recent strong performance of the share price, up 121% since our initiation, highlights that the stock is now truly trading in relation to the potential value of the arbitration claim and now with a quantitative figure available, this shows that the market cap represents only 4% of the net claim value (adjusting for fees). Our analysis of the peer group shows that as cases are derisked, this discount narrows and following this significant milestone our updated target risked to 0.3x indicates further upside potential. Our prior EV/oz analysis indicated a valuation range with US$447m as the mid-point and US$1,045m at the top end of the range. In calculating its claim, PAT has the benefit of the full dataset and was likely able to value the project on an NPV basis to provide an absolute rather than relative valuation, with this approach exceeding our initial expectations. Typically awards range from 20-80% of the claim amount, the low end of which broadly aligns with our conservative mid point estimate.

Arbitration Summary

To recap; PAT’s case relies on a claim that India breached its own laws and is enforcing its rights under the India-Australia Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT). After changes to the mining laws and an application for a licence covering the multi-million ounce Bhukia gold deposit in Rajasthan, India was rejected, the company has maintained that the value lost was substantial and crucially the legal merits of the case have been verified by the process of securing litigation finance in the form of a US$13.6m from Litigation Capital Management (LIT LN) with fees payable only in the event of a successful claim. LIT has an exceptional track record and the economic merits are also a key part of PAT’s investment case. The combination should provide investors with confidence in both the legal case and the potential for material award.

Recommendation & Target Price

We have upgraded our target valuation for PAT, updating our valuation approach to incorporate the value of the Statement of Claim. Our previous approach focused on EV/oz comparative analysis which is one of a number of approaches that could be used by the Court to award damages. The SoC demonstrates the outcome of a different approach which is equally valid and likely more accurately reflects the valuation implied by the subsequent auction of the property. Our new target price is based on a blended approach and continues to heavily discount the potential claims using a risk factor of 0.3x. We reiterate our Buy recommendation and upgrade our Target Price to 80p/sh.

[crazycoops] 19/5/2025 10:29:00

The CEO adding some colour to today's announcement via VSA Capital hTTps://youtu.be/eURpfj5xBS0

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 19/5/2025 09:29:39

A bit of sell on news was as inevitable as the coming Twitter ramp, I guess.

No one should treat early settlement as more than a slim possibility though. I thought Edhellas absolutely nailed that issue in his recent post.

[qs99] 19/5/2025 08:40:54

Not sure what those selling today were hoping for?

Size of the prize is now defined, all to play for.

Will PAT get government level lobbying involved to help push along a settlement?

DYOR

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 19/5/2025 08:11:41

The inevitable Twitter ramp will help.

[qs99] 19/5/2025 08:08:17

Lovely job.

So a valuation at say a 10% likelihood $150m so c.2 bags from here? DYOR

Hard to really assess the likelihood of winning isn't it? But 10% seems a good starter for ten....DYOR

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 19/5/2025 08:03:07

Very nice.

[catsick] 19/5/2025 07:06:08

1.58bn usd claim niiiice !!!!!!!!!!

[punting] 17/5/2025 10:38:03

Looking like Monday..no idea if we will find the figure, or just and rns to say SoC filed.

[edhellas] 16/5/2025 12:48:56

If there was a delay to SoC we would have an RNS once they knew of the delay.

In terms of early settlement, unlikely from India. They've had many opportunities to settle, including after we received LCM funding.

Not a good look for a government to just cave into demands before trying to win the case. Look at Cairn, 6b sought, 1.2b awarded but only around 1bn actually received in the end.

It's cheaper for them to lose, delay payment, then renegotiate. Or at the very least see how the proceedings go and then make a cheap settlement offer shortly before decision.

Nobody wants to be the minister who caved in and cost the country hundreds of millions/billions, they would rather Milk their position as long as possible first.

[crazycoops] 16/5/2025 12:32:21

Maybe after hours today, maybe Monday morning but it shouldn't be any later than that.

[qs99] 16/5/2025 11:44:31

Unless of course there are negotiations going on in the background and court has extended that deadline, but would have thought that would need an RNS no?

So yes, unsure.

DYOR

[crazycoops] 16/5/2025 09:08:05

"Following the initial tribunal hearing held on 16 December 2024, the Company announces that the tribunal has issued further orders covering the next phase of the proceedings extending through 2025, including an order that IGPL shall issue its Memorial, including the Statement of Claim, on or before 16 May 2025."


I thought there would have been an announcement about this by now?

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 09/5/2025 10:45:34

I think the question is how likely it is to be settled by negotiation - not very, I would suggest.

[punting] 02/5/2025 17:11:30

I think 18 to 19p is the new 7 p low

[qs99] 02/5/2025 13:38:25

19p on the offer, happy days, loads more to come IMO/DYOR

[loglorry1] 02/5/2025 12:57:36

hxxps://www.undervalued-shares.com/weekly-dispatches/10-litigation-finance-cases-from-around-the-world/?utm_source=Weekly+Dispatches&utm_campaign=a515abf6c7-US_WD_2025_05_02&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6e748b56d1-a515abf6c7-170750257

see number 10

[qs99] 28/4/2025 11:02:50

Good metric
Claim surely has to be way higher IMO given PoG? DYOR etc
And where does a claim like this get negotiated to normally? 30-50%? No idea, anyone with research or a view? DYOR

[catsick] 28/4/2025 10:10:57

Relentless buying, we have reached the 5% of 1bn usd payout level, let's hope the claim comes in higher than 1bn ...

[qs99] 28/4/2025 08:17:23

18p on the offer, nearly a triple bagger on my lower purchases, IMO this smells that something is brewing in the background, maybe a negotiated settlement, let's hope so, DYOR....or just the size of the claim & reiteration around the strength of the validity of the claim may dwarf the market cap...DYOR

[qs99] 28/4/2025 08:10:33

will we see North of 20p this week? Continued buying this am, bodes well GLA...DYOR