Panthera Resources Share Discussion Threads

[edhellas] 29/8/2023 20:00

Likely around $1b+ US, assuming we can base the claim on the 6.6moz.

[philly cheesesteak] 29/8/2023 15:21

Posted on LSE yesterday evening by ShearClass;

Ok, here goes my claim quantum effort - no investment advice / DYOR...

IMO there are three key factors that will be used to determine the market value of the investment at the time of the alleged expropriation in 2021; the in ground value of the gold, when the expropriation became public knowledge & the estimated size of the resource at that point in time.

I found this 2015 research report really useful to try and put some meat on the bones of some analysis;

hxxp://www.cipherresearch.com/reports/150601_The-Real-Value-of-Gold-in-the-Ground.pdf

It studied 253 transactions involving gold companies between 1990-2013 and determined that the average price paid per in ground oz was $63. The average price of gold over the 24 year study period was $605/oz. So the average transaction paid 10.4% of the 'in ground' value. That may be skewed by the fact that for 16 of those 24 years gold averaged ~$350, but to me that seems like a sensible figure to use and leaves some upside.

The 1999 BIT states; "The compensation referred to in paragraph 1 of this Article shall be computed on the basis of the market value of the investment immediately before the expropriation or impending expropriation became public knowledge"

Based on this link it looks like 15th March 2021 was when the bill was first introduced; hxxps://prsindia.org/billtrack/the-mines-and-minerals-development-and-regulation-amendment-bill-2021

'Immediately before this on the 14th March 2021 gold traded at $1720, so using the 10.4% figure above, that gives us an in ground market value of ~$178.88/oz

Then we just have to apply that to the resource size. IMO there is no chance PAT are just going to claim for the 2008 JORC of 1.74Moz given how much that figure would have risen in the 13 years between then and the official expropriation. However, even if the arbitration panel decided to use that figure it would still come to a claim size of $311m, or some 20x the current market cap. That's the ultimate downside here IMO.

However, it's far more likely that PAT will utilise the 2 resource studies from the GSI, the 6.7Moz from 2014 or the 7.9Moz from 2021 that I posted earlier on.

6.7Moz * $178.88 = ~$1.2b

7.9Moz * $178.88 = ~$1.4b

That's the size of the prize... and before anyone says they could claim for 10Moz+, they would need some reasonable basis to do so, that is what makes the GSI work potentially so valuable.

[someuwin] 29/8/2023 14:49

I don't know much about this company. But as a shareholder, I do know a lot about LCM (Litigation Capital Management). I know they have a very high success rate due to being very selective about which cases they decide to fund. So based on that alone I've bought a few of these. Is there any indication of the litigation payout value? What are peoples best guesses?

[qs99] 29/8/2023 10:14

Not sure people have cottoned on to how significant Faskens being appointed, with plenty of funds to fight the Indian case is....let's see DYOR and let's hope they get political pressure as well for India to abide by rule of law!!

[edhellas] 26/8/2023 11:48

Excellent news from the rns yesterday. Now we have a powerful negotiation tool. It's telling that LCM delayed the DD because they wanted to add a clause for an amicable deal. And they increased the funding amount by almost 30%.

Likely PAT conceded to include the clause only if the amount increased. There's a possibility that LCM believe the legal fees will be higher than originally anticipated, but the former is more likely in my opinion.

With over £1b of copper and over £10b of gold in Bhukia, a BIT claim would be huge. Likely £1-2billion even after our beneficiaries take their cut.

PAT is in its strongest position ever in this legal battle, deal or no, we'll get value out of Bhukia.

Cascades results are coming sometime soon too, which should tell us if the project is economically feasible. This next year should see us return to ATH, and then some.

[bikwik] 25/8/2023 15:34

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[bikwik] 25/8/2023 15:32

Finally, Panthera has escaped from the Bermuda Triangle.....see chart below. In effect this means that wave 5 started today, and with a bullish breakaway. Could an interpretation of the chart have predicted todays funding announcement? Nope. But as the trend had turned bullish some time back, then bearish news will tend to get brushed aside while bullish news will have a greater affect on the price.

See my chart and comments about a month ago. Also, i would like to point out that making time price targets is a lot harder than price only targets, as Zak Mir has found out. Though I suspect he realises that, or maybe he doesn't.

With the price currently testing the June high of 8.75p, it hasn't blown out resistance just yet, once through though my targets open up. I think Zak Mir just guesses his, well maybe that's a bit harsh. He doesn't explain what they are based on though does he.

[qs99] 25/8/2023 08:02

Game changer IMO

Settle out of court for a handsome sum asap

Why would Indian govt not want this headache off the books?

[edhellas] 02/8/2023 18:35

"Hopefully the funding DD isn't delayed any further, we need to get the funding confirmation notice to use it in court."

Delayed again. The LSE forum is full of posts about the next hearing date. It'll be delayed again in my opinion. Pat want to delay it until we get the funding secured. Then it can be leveraged in negotiations.

The fact that LCM want to add the clause after doing most of their DD, and didn't propose it initially, is a good sign in my opinion. They see the granting of the license as a real possibility after doing their DD and want to guarantee a piece of the pie regardless of the outcome.

Mark gets his 3 million share options if he can secure funding, at 10p per share. That means the board consider 10p to be less than market value in that situation. I'm averaging 10.4p so it's an encouraging sign.

If we can get the license by March 2024 (Mark's current deadline) that would be amazing, however I'm not confident in that given PATs history on missing deadlines.

[edhellas] 23/7/2023 12:58

I believe his was 12p for end of June, illustrates my point a little :D

It's a speculative stock, there are no fundamentals so charts are a bit pointless for it imo.

Should be an rns 31st July. Hopefully the funding DD isn't delayed any further, we need to get the funding confirmation notice to use it in court.

The previous court hearing was adjourned at the request of both parties, but this time it was only at the request of PAT.

"1.Learned senior counsel appearing for the petitioner seeksadjournment in order to complete his instructions.2.Learned AAG makes a serious objection to the adjournment.3.List the matter on 10.08.2023, as prayed.4.Interim order, if any, shall remain in currency till next date."

The objection is interesting, be good to see how this plays out over the next year

[bikwik] 21/7/2023 17:39

It appears my target of 12p is the same as Zak Mir, though I didn't know that when I posted mine. Just scrolled back through the posts and found one of yours....

I'm not one for charts and TA but Zak Mir mentioned a target of 12 by the end of the month which is interesting.

So I suppose you might find mine interesting as well. Of course I and Zak Mir could be wrong.

[bikwik] 21/7/2023 17:31

I don't think any chart could have predicted what you said...as a chart is a chart, it needs someone or something to interpret it.

[bikwik] 21/7/2023 17:29

Oh well, if that's what you think then fine.

[edhellas] 21/7/2023 17:25

I don't think forward looking charts are particularly useful for a company like PAT with no profit. The share price is based on RNSs and speculation. E.g. How many charts correctly predicted the rise to 33p and fall to 3.5p?

The board seem to think 20p+ is feasible in the next 8 months of LCM give us funding. If we get a license, it'll likely be higher.

[bikwik] 21/7/2023 17:16

It broke the two year downtrend several weeks back.

The 50 day and 200 day moving averages are rising after a bullish golden crossover recently.

Looks like a fourth wave triangle is now being resolved and wave 5(up)commenced from 6.25p.

Most of wave 4 action was contained what I call the Bermuda triangle (this is a BIKWIK term and is patented). Its when a stock price gets trapped between an expanding boundary of support and resistance. When it breaks out, it then starts to re-appear on the radar.

Also this triangle conforms to the rule of alternation in Elliott Wave. (If wave two is simple, wave 4 will be complex. Here it is.

Notice there is also a year long base pattern being completed...neckline is around 7.60p, the target being 15.6p. The target for the 5th wave now underway is either 10.3p or 12.8p, depending on whether one measures it from 6.25p or 7.60p.

The Fibonacci retracement of 38.2% sits at 11.79p, so maybe somewhere around 12p is fair all things considered.

Finally, the RSI and MACD are both bullish.

[bikwik] 21/7/2023 17:00

Was trying to buy £7000 worth of this one, but all I could get was £2500 right near the end of todays trading.

Chart looks good...here it is:


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[edhellas] 14/7/2023 15:44

Big news most likely the litigation funding, don't think a deal will come so quickly. The latest RNS inspires confidence though. The board are confident in getting a deal or funding in the next 8 months.

[sutherland1] 14/7/2023 15:33

Heard big news next week

[edhellas] 03/7/2023 18:40

The delay on the litigation funding is a little annoying after Mark explicitly said they did not expect further delays.

I've come to expect it from this industry by now though. The new deadline is one working day before the next court date which is interesting.

The folks on the LSE forum are ramping up, expecting a deal to be announced. Many of them said the same thing about the recent GM which I correctly stated would not include news of a deal. In my opinion, any deal will not be for a couple of months.

The hearing likely gets delayed again at the request of both parties. Hopefully we'll get another interview after the litigation DD is announced. I'm interested in everybody else's thoughts.

I was revisiting the research piece by Allenby, they mentioned that the recent 10000m drill program at Cascades/Labola should help the company decide if the project will be commercially viable. Their definition of that is whether the company believe the resource can be built to 2moz or higher in a reasonable amount of time. I hope that evaluation arrives sometime in the next 6-8 months.

[qs99] 30/6/2023 10:26

Off we go, 10p today anyone? DYOR

[qs99] 30/6/2023 09:56

Nearly buying at full offer, bid moved up, about to move IMO.DYOR

[qs99] 30/6/2023 09:18

fingers xd, nice rise again today

[edhellas] 25/6/2023 02:08

I'm not one for charts and TA but Zak Mir mentioned a target of 12 by the end of the month which is interesting.

For those who don't already, I'd suggest following Panthera Resources on Twitter and consider subscribing to Proactive Investors on YouTube.

Panthera retweeted this comment on Twitter (March) which is unusually bold for Mark:

"Now on the cusp of getting an award of a 7.5m oz Gold Project.

The GoR relies on 3 weak arguments that have been repeatedly raised & previously rebuffed by Multiple tribunals, committees & courts of India.

$10.5m now secured to settle resolution

ReRate Inbound"

The share price was 6.25p that Friday.

I was looking through my emails the other day and found this from Mark below. I'm trying to be realistic and stop myself from getting overhyped/ramped up. But this makes me think the "major update" is not a JV partner but progress on an amicable agreement. Surly if a new JV partner has "little relevance" it isn't the "major update"? It could be argued that the LCM funding is the update, but everybody knows about it already

"Thank you for your email.



As you may appreciate, a new partner has little relevance unless the grant of the Bhukia licence can be resolved. It is my opinion that the licence impasse can be resolved and accordingly it remains the focus for the Company. Until this is the case, it would be improper for me to speculate on the possible future actions, positive or otherwise, by the GoI.



Concurrent with these efforts Fasken has been working on our BIT claim should our efforts in India prove fruitless. The recent Cairn settlement bolsters our view that a BIT claim has material value for Panthera shareholders.



Kind regards

Mark Bolton

Managing Director

Panthera Resources Plc"