Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[johnswan193] 30/11/2021 17:06

Chris & POS - of course general market sentiment was the biggest factor today. But Panr was a relative underperformer. If the rebalancing was going to have an immediately positive and material contributing effect it should have turned Panr into a relative outperformer.

I have not read anything about effect of index inclusion on price for small cap indices but I know there have been many studies on it in major indices. Any positive effect is typically short lived. What happens is that there is an increase in passive investment relative to discretionary and where any price spike occurs it is usually brief and the price reverts back to fundamentals.

What is surely positive is that inclusion in an index may bring it more attention and could potentially lead to new discretionary investment, but difficult to quantify what impact that could have.

Another potential benefit for Panr could be if the increased volume results in Farallon transferring stock (rather than any other party acquiring with intention of offloading for this purpose) that would otherwise have been released into the market over a longer time.

Whether Scot's logic has been invalidated or not, I have my view and I'll leave it up to others to decide theirs.

[probabilityofsuccess] 30/11/2021 17:02

Johnswan - Interesting logic - have you considered that the price may have gone down 10-15% today if the rebalancing didn’t happen? Possibility, isn’t it, all else being equal? Therefore Scot’s logic is not invalidated.

Once again you are confusing yourself (and trying to confuse others) by wanting to prove Scot wrong instead of thinking logically.

[chris0805] 30/11/2021 16:58

Perhaps the general market sentiment today with Omicron news affecting all world indices is the reason for todays swing johnswan193?? Any views on that?Sometimes you speak very good sense on this BB, a great pity it's not more often as most of the time you talk utter tripe...

[chris0805] 30/11/2021 16:55

Wish it would put some on my head!

[johnswan193] 30/11/2021 16:50

Hi Scot, does this put an end to the theory you put forward that the volume associated with such rebalances should result in an increase in SP?

-8.5% today.

Remember I tried to help you (and stop you misleading others) by pointing out any effect would already have been priced in.

But yet again you tried to ridicule my view, and yet again you were proved wrong.

[con90210] 30/11/2021 16:47

Expecting a bounce tomorrow.

[scot126] 30/11/2021 16:46

Dear All - this volume is, IMO, associated with (i) the promotion of PANR from the MSCI Global Micro Cap Index to the MSCI Global Small Cap Index and (ii) the inclusion of PANR in the FTSE Russell AIM 100 Index. Of the two, I suspect the MSCI promotion will have had a more pronounced effect on the required re-weighting by the relevant tracker funds.

Please recall I informed the thread some funds start their re-weighting process as soon as the index owners advise of the impending revisions, some leave it until the last day before the changes take effect. These funds are *entirely agnostic* about absolute performance. The quant whiz kids who manage them (more accurately, who write the code and algos which sit in their black boxes) are judged on the fund's ability to mirror as accurately as possible the underlying index. There is zero incentive to "beat" their index. There is also a decent chance some of the larger trades marked today will be as a result of transactions where Global Micro Cap funds deliver their PANR holding to their Global Small Cap big brother index fund within the same firm, eg. Blackrock, AXA, Vanguard.

PS Social media types may wish to inform our OTC cousins this late volume is almost certainly associated with PANR's promotion/inclusion in at least two indices. This is almost certainly "technical" trading and not fundamental in nature.

[forwood] 30/11/2021 16:43

Yoghurt - snap!

[yoghurt73] 30/11/2021 16:39

Puts hairs on your chest does this share.

Grey ones.

[sirmark] 30/11/2021 16:37

I thing its just that Forwood. was watching them load on at the close ... a few 4.1mln s trades and 600k so just a realignment imo

[forwood] 30/11/2021 16:35

wow - auction has uncrossing volume of c 16m - Is this the vaunted realignment of the indices or something else? Extraordinary volume whatever.

[sirmark] 30/11/2021 16:33

Large auction action
16:31 16,700 MO
16:31 1,392,524 MO
16:31 21,380 MO