Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[chris0805] 05/12/2021 19:19

So apologies not needed as good news on the PoO is on topic :-)

[dhb368] 05/12/2021 16:42

Apologies for the off topic, but so far evidence coming out of South Africa points to much better outcomes from Omicron than was initially feared, so hopefully positive for the POO this week, along with a well timed RNS... again hopefully.

Dr John Campbell: Latest data, looking good.
hxxps://youtu.be/1Paq17X6ucQ

[cezuan] 05/12/2021 12:28

@Boobie Yes, I know. I looked around and it doesn't seem typical to "immediately" approve after the comment-window ends. E.g. the "Jade" application closed on the 1st, too, and isn't approved yet either. So it looks natural to me.

RE dates: Personally I think the farmout notification and the approval date are not connected.

[responsible investor] 05/12/2021 12:22

Rabito and Scot126. Of course I understood the mathematics in arriving at $2.80 but the notion of the recoverable oil valuation is that is related to the value of the oil after it is produced i.e. market value of crude less cost of production (inc transport) and a reasonable profit margin. The Pikka valuation at $3.1 was understandable but the price of crude has nearly doubled since the date of that transaction whilst the extraction costs for PANR reserves may remain comparable to those at Pikka bearing in mind PANR's much more favourable location.

Pleased to see that Scot126 comment "..$8-10 per barrel in the ground is not unreasonable" although I was not suggesting that my figures were my forecast only a more reasonable figure to be used in any valuation of PANR's assets! Using these "not unreasonable" figures the valuation is 3-4 times that suggested by Rabito!

Whatever - Rabito's estimates whilst IMHO uncommonly conservative remain particularly attractive for current and potential investors.

[bobbiedazzler] 05/12/2021 11:58

I can't conceive how the price could be as low as Pikka given the rise in the oil price since then and the closeness to infrastructure in the Dalton Highway and Trans Alaska Pipeline System lowering project costs. On good tests, the share price is likely to reflect those advantages.

[bobbiedazzler] 05/12/2021 11:53

Thanks Cezuan. Note the start date is 15th December. Clock ticking. I expect RNS on farminee as soon as approval is given

[scot126] 05/12/2021 11:42

Hi responsible investor - Rabito79 explains this in the notes underneath the tables. Do you remember in the August webinar Jay said PANR would have, by the end of the anticipated programme of operations in 2022, collected sufficient data to equate to approx 90% of the level or standard of data which Armstrong had for Pikka when they concluded their Q3 '17 deal with Oil Search?

Thus, 90% of $3.10 is $2.80.

Rabito79 is being ultra-conservative and has elected to use an indisputable historical precedent which is mpossible to challenge for the purposes of his analysis.

In the real world, PANR's proximity to the Dalton Highway and TAPS makes it extremely likely PANR, on full sale, will achieve a multiple of $3.10 per contingent barrel. For starters, a proportion of PANR's portfolio will likely attain reserve status by the time of a full sale, ref. the 400mmbo immediately accessible by the roadside. The Pikka transaction was based only on contingent resources.

FWIW, I think your forecast of $8-10 per barrel in the ground is not unreasonable.

Caveat - this is all contingent on the management geological model being proven.

Think of the upside here folks, because the market has IMHO not taken the time to do so. I reckon the TRR will increase markedly over time when the OIP and RF figures increase as a result of a) further delineation of the resource after more drilling b) when secondary and tertiary recovery techniques are applied to PANR's enhanced understanding of the characteristics of the different horizons. On top of that, there is responsible investor's point about a higher NPV per barrel being justified due to better project economics linked chiefly to proximity to infrastructure. That's when the telephone numbers begin to emerge.

[rabito79] 05/12/2021 11:32

I can answer that one responsible investor. The $2.8 was taken from comments made by Jay in the October webinar where he commented we could achieve 90% of the Armstrong/Oil Search deal after this season. Hopefully these are conservative but given we will have completed less appraisal than Armstrong it may be fair.

[antique7879] 05/12/2021 10:20

Barlow - I believe the Theta W drill is the big prize on the table in the farmout negotiations. The farmee will, therefore, want to be absolutely certain that the necessary approvals from ADNR are in place for the Theta W drill this winter before concluding the farmout deal. It is not unreasonable to expect news of funding (farmout) the day after GBP receive approval for the Theta W drill. (Opinion)

Status of this approval can be tracked on this website

[banksy] 05/12/2021 10:12

Many thanks for clarification

[cezuan] 05/12/2021 10:02

@barlow I also found it odd to receive the Talitha approval and not the TW. BUT the TW application actually applies for TW only and says

"Under a >>separate<< Plan of Op[eration]s, approximately 8 miles of ice road will connect the Talitha A pad to the Dalton High"

which suggests that there are 2 applications (LONS 20 & 21) and why Talitha was approved 1st.
Also, comments potentially effecting changes to the TW application were formally receivable until Dec 1st. So the approval isn't late or anything.

Given TW and Talitha are both described in the Talitha approval as planned in the TW application, there are no grounds to doubt the intentions of drilling it.

Re: funding: that shouldn't be an issue anyway imo since these approvals are mostly "procedure".

[barlow990] 05/12/2021 09:26

Is the outstanding approval of Theta West the reason why we are waiting for funding news? Is this just a formality?

[inteligentia8] 05/12/2021 09:21

Banksy l believe there was an official State of Alaska dated 2Dec'21 document link somewhere ... application valid till 2024 is what l recall...just Google it

[ih_569066] 05/12/2021 08:59

Rabito many many thanks. We have some good people on this board and some intelligent ones I am much the wiser for your input.

[cezuan] 05/12/2021 08:05

@bansky It's not in the library any more, but the link still works: dog.dnr.alaska.gov/Document/535B423B152E4D5BA33B62AC6576266F/2021-11-02__Lease_Plan_of_Operations_Application?

[banksy] 05/12/2021 06:48

I may be being a bit thick here, but can anyone point me in the direction of where to find Pantheons application to drill Theta West this coming season or are we not privy to that information until it is granted on the ADNR website?

[brian boru] 05/12/2021 06:14

Agreed, it truly was an epic piece of work and well presented. All we need now is funding and then we’re off to the races in January to prove a valuation of at least 5 times current SP!

[antique7879] 04/12/2021 22:09

Rabito - Excellent work!!
Many thanks for sharing.

[ottoman1453] 04/12/2021 21:13

Rabito - many thanks for your considered and conservative analysis.