Oxus Gold Share Discussion Threads

[99jeremiah] 16/12/2015 13:07

Yeah we've had more pennants than a jousting tournament. I like some of his other observations though...

[welshwiz] 16/12/2015 13:03

Funniest comment of the year "stig has been more right than wrong" .... priceless

[hairballradical] 16/12/2015 12:51

Fest,

ridiculous you say but I say Tem is hilarious!

[luckyman3] 16/12/2015 12:45

RNS soon to say Conversion of CLNs and Issue of Equity to darwin

[festario] 16/12/2015 12:43

HBR don't be ridiculous.

[dave444] 16/12/2015 12:39

Good post STIG - just put in perspective what is the potential!

[hairballradical] 16/12/2015 12:31

Are Festario and Stig one and the same? Thats at least the second time that Fest has specifically mentioned that he supports Stig. Stig and Bad Robot are the only posters I have on filter because they are both attention seekers. Tem isn't filters because he's so hilarious!

[apfindley] 16/12/2015 12:11

Gobble gobbleHungry hippo time

[festario] 16/12/2015 12:09

Then we can all stop mincing about on here! I find that Stig has been more right than wrong though.

[papillon] 16/12/2015 12:02

"I have what I "wish" for and what I think hand on heart is realistic which is $250 - $400 mn range."

I can't disagree with that, wulber. It sums up my opinion.

Hopefully we will get the verdict soon. The sooner the better!

[kcowe] 16/12/2015 12:01

looks like we have buyers support in the 3p area for darwin to sell into.market still does not believe in an imminent outcome ... volume is absent.

[maytrees] 16/12/2015 11:56

I agree with the point made in yr last para wulber.

[wulber] 16/12/2015 11:36

No worries Pap.

I'm not over-exuberant on any potential award as some might think.

I have what I "wish" for and what I think hand on heart is realistic which is $250 - $400 mn range.

GLA

[orgasmicbeef] 16/12/2015 11:26

Discount rate has an accepted calculation using the Risk Free Rate, Beta, Country Risk and ERP [Equity Risk Premium] so can be estimated at the time with the year data.

[papillon] 16/12/2015 11:19

Since I got it wrong on the PE's of POG & CEY (and also CEY's absence of debt) I've removed my filter on wulber's posts. I apologise for filtering him.

[papillon] 16/12/2015 11:14

Wulber,

Have you had time to read the Uzbek case? No because you nor no-one else has seen it.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Very true! We have only seen one side of the argument, the OXS side. While it must appear a good argument and claim to us since we hold OXS shares in our ignorance of the Uzbek side of the argument we must not be over confident.

My target award is still US$300m (based on the Chinese offer & coincidently circa one fourth of E&Y's DCF valuation). Of course I might be over confident. Only time will tell. I've had a gamble on OXS shares and with any gamble there are risks attached.

PS. It would be very nice if my US$300m target was on the pessimistic side!! Fingers crossed!

[pug151] 16/12/2015 11:09

I did the same some time ago.

[papillon] 16/12/2015 11:00

By the way, The Stig's OXS charts are a complete waste of his time posting them. Look back at what he was forecasting a month ago, or two months ago, based on his charts to realise they are useless when it comes to predicting the OXS share price movements. The OXS share price only spikes up on news. Charts only record current investor sentiment towards OXS; they cannot forecast the arbitration verdict.

Since I think Stig's charts are a waste of space and he adds nothing else to the debate I've decided to filter him.

[hairballradical] 16/12/2015 10:59

Wulber,

Have you had time to read the Uzbek case? No because you nor no-one else has seen it. Don't you think that half of the complications have come from the presentation from the other side drawing attention to OXS funding capability, OXS failing to meet output targets in Phase 1, OXS complex ownership structure with crossover dealings into subcontractors .......

It sounds like you're the hare before the race against the tortoise.

PF, KCowe, JAF and others have got a decent handle on all of the facts and an award, if at all, will be so much closer to $125m than $1250m.

[papillon] 16/12/2015 10:49

Well I learnt something yesterday on this thread. That relatively large gold producers, such as CEY and POG, trade on PE's of 10 and above. I was IGNORANT of that fact since I don't follow them. You're never too old to learn!

[papillon] 16/12/2015 10:41

"it's the arbitration panel which will make the judgement and the best expert guide on valuation has come from E&Y who are professionals who are trained in research, analysis, evaluation etc"

The first part is true, The Stig. The only opinion that counts is that of the arbitration panel. However the E&Y valuation is only E&Y's opinion!! Just because they are so called experts that doesn't make their valuation correct in the eyes of the arbitration panel. The E&Y valuation is just one side of the argument (OXS's). The arbitration panel will also hear the other side of the argument (Uzbeks side).

All DCF valuations have a flaw; the valuation will ultimately depend on what discount rate is used. For example a discount rate of 10% will give a vastly different valuation figure to a discount rate of 15%. Many experts think a 10% discount rate (commonly used) gives far too high a valuation and a 15% discount rate gives a more realistic figure. A discount rate of 8% will give a much higher valuation figure.

Don't forget RUR. They to had an EXPERT valuation that was the basis for their circa US$140m claim. However the arbitration panel halved and halved that again and RUR were awarded circa US$35m

[wulber] 16/12/2015 09:48

Just read the 24 pages again and my word, Oxus do have a 'very' compelling case!

I would be flabbergasted if they don't win fair compensation.

[apfindley] 16/12/2015 09:31

Yes wulber, the whole document makes great reading.

Whether people invested or not, it is well worth sitting down and reading this detailed claim document.




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