Oxus Gold Share Discussion Threads

[nick2412] 07/10/2015 12:57

I'm certainly no lawyer 99J and would welcome someone with a legal background giving a summary of the points. From very much a layman's perspective I think her key points are :-

Firstly, when there is clear evidence that an asset has been taken by 'legal expropriation' then only "appropriate compensation" is due. She gives a definition of legal expropriation and it relates to things like state security etc. Other arbitrators used (in the context of legal expropriation and giving only 'fair' compensation awards) the word 'probably', she didn't like the word "probably".

She doesn't seem to be dissenting from awarding amounts above 'fair compensation' when expropriation is deemed 'illegal'.

Secondly, she doesn't like the fact that claimants can choose either the date of expropriation or the date of an award as the key timing for deciding compensation. She thinks only the date of expropriation should determine the level of an award.

If anyone can summarise any other key points she has made I'd be interested. It's a long document.

These two points, on the face of it, don't look like factors she could justifiably dissent on with regard to OXS. That said, we don't know the Uzbek side so if (unlikely I know) they were able to say they expropriated legally and get the arbitrators agreement then at least OXS would still entitled to at least 'fair compensation.'

The second point doesn't look relevant to OXS either because almost certainly OXS would opt, from a valuation perspective, for the historic date when the arbitrators determine expropriation took place rather than the date of award ... in the very near future ...

[loverat] 07/10/2015 12:56

Noirua

I am not sure it would be a disorderly market. It would be just like the other stocks which have had ongoing arbitration or litigation surely. There might be a big gap between the market cap now and the potential award but I don't think this would apply as a suspension reason.

One stock I remember a while back was AVS. It was one Simon Cawkwell held and if I remember the company won a substantial award in the US courts from Disney??. I wonder if that situation has been compared with this in the context of your point. No suspension as far as I remember although I seem to recall some of the potential award was priced in before.

[jrjr99] 07/10/2015 12:55

if it goes against us, presumably there would be an appeal? i.e it would not be bust straight away

[marmar80] 07/10/2015 12:50

Re: above chart. If Oxus was a normal aim company then I would expect the share price to stay at this level or go down. But Oxus has some deadline, an event changing everything. Oxus is very near that event so the share price simply doesn't have enough time to go much lower before the big day. Hold or buy in my view. Dyor as usual.

[noirua] 07/10/2015 12:46

Suspension of shares is usual on AIM if a disorderly market may result or on a reverse takeover situation. How disorderly could OXS become if a result of the Arbitration was known to be due in a week or two.?

[loverat] 07/10/2015 12:38

99Jeremiah

Agree - research, discussion and debate should be encouraged even if it has been discussed before.

There are a few good posters on here. But it is clear that Stig is not one of them. His charts are useless. He pretends to be an arbitration expert and wannabe lawyer etc. He just takes a few pointers and dresses it up as research or expert opinion. He makes no effort. The only reason some people approve of him is because he tells them what they want to hear.

This is about the grand sum of his knowledge, understanding and effort.

[99jeremiah] 07/10/2015 12:30

PaulE3 - and for that matter, how many times has Stig banged on about the totally irrelevant and uninteresting point about Noirua and his/her SGZ trades?

I personally hoped someone with a better grasp of the legal aspects might have done a precis of Ms. Stern's 7th Sept pdf for us plebs:

hxxp://www.italaw.com/sites/default/files/case-documents/italaw4388.pdf

[the stigologist] 07/10/2015 12:21

This is looking like a great intraday technical set up now

[nick2412] 07/10/2015 12:02

PaulE, don't be put off by any other poster dismissing your comment about Brigitte Stern's dissenting view on how damages valuation is derived. Just because it's been mentioned before it doesn't mean it's excluded from discussion now. It might be a quiet bulletin board if that principle were applied ! It's a significant point and well worth mentioning again. It may well explain the delay in the context of OXS thinking end of 2014 would bring a decision. Possibly, or even probably, Ms Sterne has dissented on the level of award and all of the panel would have to take on board some of the legal precedents from the Yukos case.

Also of interest are the Yukos issues on how valuation is derived and especially ; date of expropriation (relevant gold price) and whether DCF, comparative company valuation, lost profits or a compromise between various methods is used.

The arbitrators didn't like to use DCF with the Yukos case but of course that may not apply to OXS as OXS is obviously in a different sector and was at a different stage of growth.

[the stigologist] 07/10/2015 11:59

This is my beating Noirua back into his box special...

oh great we have the SGZ trading specialist back giving us his expert advice, good heavens, some people seem to be too stupid to realise they are a laughing stock



Sold OXS at 2p and bought SGZ at 1p+
A week later OXS at 3p and SGZ halved.

Oxus 2015, awaiting merits and quantum - OXS

Noirua - 26 Jan 2015 - 10:55:53 - 12697 of 13309

GS, the share price of OXS is well down from the recent peak and the market looks uncertain


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com



free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[the stigologist] 07/10/2015 11:57

Noirua is a fool whose credibility on here has been zero since he advised a trading switch from OXS to SGZ, within one week SGZ had halved and OXS was up 50% or so.

[paule3] 07/10/2015 11:56

"suspect though she would only bother with the dissenting opinion if she felt the Quantum was 'outlandish' which is the positive I draw from that snippet."

me too!

And I feel that is the reason for the delay here; the award, appropriately awarded IS outlandish............

Hence Briggite writing about how unfair it is.

As I say my glass is half full but that was my immediate thought when I saw it.

[psyclops1] 07/10/2015 11:53

Noirua - there is no reason the shares will be suspended prior to announcement unless there is a leak and the share price is flying (either way).

There is simply no precedent to shut up shop on announcement of a material decision except as above.

[edgein] 07/10/2015 11:45

GS,

I assume you were also thinking about folks being locked out too if someone were looking for volume at a single digit price. For investors volume not traders volume.

Regards,
Ed.

[the stigologist] 07/10/2015 11:44

I don't think anybody would be in this if they didn't think we would win on Merits. The point has always been Quantum so the fact there is a dissenting opinion in and of itself is neither here nor there. I suspect though she would only bother with the dissenting opinion if she felt the Quantum was 'outlandish' which is the positive I draw from that snippet.

[noirua] 07/10/2015 11:42

GS, maybe I'm still a nervous investor in Oxus and need to book profits, now over £21k, just in case something goes amiss, or more likely an Arbitrator becomes very ill or passes away. In the UVEL/LSH subsidiary indirect Arbitration the lawyer for one side dropped dead and it had to be put back 6 weeks and the Arbitration virtually started again. News expected by March 2014 and still waiting.
I still expect a sudden suspension of OXS on AIM as news becomes certain. This might last longer than expected and put some close to a nervous breakdown.

[the stigologist] 07/10/2015 11:39

One other canard worth addressing is this issue of Suspension. The fact RS has instituted a market based / liquidity dependent funding mechanism pretty much gives the lie to the idea that there will be any suspension for any length of time as it would impact the funding mechanism with Darwin. So I think that can be put to bed once and for all.

[the stigologist] 07/10/2015 11:37

Well we just have to accept that some people are more risk averse and would prefer to pay 30p for a 'definite' 60p than 3p for a 'possible' 60p for example

[giant steps] 07/10/2015 11:35

The Stig, i was thinking 'locked out' in the sense of buying OXS as
a single digit share price ( no advice intended )

[paule3] 07/10/2015 11:33

OK my bad when was it first published?

[the stigologist] 07/10/2015 11:32

The Brigitte Stern stuff has been posted about before. Just do a search using the search facility.

[the stigologist] 07/10/2015 11:31

GS, this stuff about 'being locked out' is again arrant nonsense

Nobody is 'locked out', you just pay the market price and you are in !

[paule3] 07/10/2015 11:29

I am sure it is worthless but I am going to post it here anyway.

Recently Brigeitte Stern threw her toys out of the pram regarding how the quantum can be calculated. Immediately I thought wow we have won and the delay is because she is so angry we have legitimately claimed/expect and have been awarded a rather large sum of money!

Yes my glass is half full!

But wasn't it odd timing for her to publish her missive about calculating quantums?!