Oxus Gold Share Discussion Threads

[the stigologist] 07/10/2015 09:47

looks like today we are getting the long tail reversal hammer

if RAB overhang gone would not rule out blast above 4.6p for a massive bullish engulfing candle

[giant steps] 07/10/2015 09:46

Seems like there is a scramble for folk to re-enter

Volume on aim 2.69m, on isdx 0.55m, total c3.24m

[the stigologist] 07/10/2015 09:44

I agreed from the outset Darwin didn't make a jot of difference £100k in a £500m settlement is meaningless but obviously this stock is in play and there are highly significant short term trading positions so small changes in confidence level will have huge effects

This is ultimately an option with potential for near term payout so if anything one would expect even more volatility that is why anybody thinking a 12% intraday move is 'bizarre' is just plain wrong

The bizarre thing is that an option with 0-100p payout potential on 70:30 Chance of Success is valued at only 3-4p when it could/should be valued at 35-70p !

[giant steps] 07/10/2015 09:43

The very near future

... is 7 days in


Tick tock

[the stigologist] 07/10/2015 09:41

£100k shares is about 3.3m

Added to whatever RAB have left 6-8m ? so you are looking at about 10m shares which needed clearing

The pro traders would usually try to sell in line with market volume so as rule of thumb say 1/3rd so would have needed 30m volume to clear both RAB and Darwin

then add all the margin traders who probably got whipsawed yesterday

I think we are close to RAB and Darwin being out so we could see this marked up quite significantly that is why it is an interesting watch

[edgein] 07/10/2015 09:36

Stig,

Really so £100k of shares per month you see as an overhang (around 30m shares changed hands yesterday). Also there may be events that causes RS to cancel this such as a change in control of OXS for example. So yeah a 30% swing on the day was a really bizarre reaction to a £100k loan note, the rest will be issued if/when needed. Unless some of these short-termers can see what will unfold in the next 12 months. In that case its a whole £1.2m of loan notes and a paltry amount of warrants, events that may unfold in the very near term could make this an irrelevance to current OXS shareholders.

Regards,
Ed.

[marmar80] 07/10/2015 09:33

Darwin probably already sold, as they usually do that, so next one in 4 weeks as the earliest. Rab must be near 0. Looks like 4 weeks of healthy trading ahead of us.

[skez13] 07/10/2015 09:31

GS
it wasn't bizzare, it was the reaction of short term traders who saw Darwin in the RNS and went running for the exit - no doubt they will return.

notice the lack of new names posting today?:)

[the stigologist] 07/10/2015 09:28

There was no 'bizarre' action yesterday. We went from expecting the RAB overhang to end to having an additional Darwin tap added. It was perfectly rational for the MM's to slash the price. Question is when will RAB and Darwin overhang clear and fundamentals rather than technicals reassert themselves (absent Award RNS)

[brewsters_millions] 07/10/2015 09:28

Nice one Edgein

[marmar80] 07/10/2015 09:26

Thanks Ed.

[tburns] 07/10/2015 09:25

Had to stop somewhere in the sentence Stig, happy with the 17th Oct as D-day!

[giant steps] 07/10/2015 09:25

Yes edgein, indeed a bizarre share price reaction yesterday.


Verdict expected "in the very near future"

[edgein] 07/10/2015 09:21

Marmar,

"In addition, the Loan Notes are redeemable in the event of a change of control of Oxus Gold."

Someone posted back from the AGM that there was talking of RS possibly selling any potential award on for someone else to pursue. Imo if we see an award in the very near term the CLN's will be the last thing on anyone's mind, especially if it is fair compensation for these two world class assets. RAB may be delighted to convert at 12p or possibly negotiate with a new owner. RS could have kept this point above confidential between himself and Darwin, he chose to share this comment with us. Folks should read all the recent comments from RS very carefully as he's telling us quite a bit about how he sees the current situation and what he sees as happening very near term.

As for the recent loan notes they're hardly even dilution as any outstanding can be re-bought by OXS at a very small premium. This largely neutral or even slightly positive development shouldn't have had the bizarre share price reaction that it did. I guess too many conspiracy theorists and short-termers on aim at present.

Regards,
Ed.

[the stigologist] 07/10/2015 09:11

wow that's creative but shouldn't you include 'in' as well so that adds 2 days ?

[tburns] 07/10/2015 09:09

The clue was in the numbers of letters in 'the very near future' so 17 days which means just 10 days to go GS

[giant steps] 07/10/2015 09:07

The very near future
... is 7 days in


On this basis news beckons

[nick2412] 07/10/2015 09:06

GS, I think marmar80 is correct aside from one scenario - scenario 2)

1) The decision comes in the 'very near future' (let's say within the next month to six weeks) and the decision is favourable. The stock trades at over 12p. RAB convert and receive over 4m from the share sales or dividend.

2) The decision comes as above and is favourable but the stock doesn't trade over 12p and RAB take cash or shares (negotiated) equivalent to £4m

3) The decision comes and OXS lose. No cash for RAB.

4) The decision is delayed and we reach December without a decision. CLN's are re-negotiated.

[tburns] 07/10/2015 09:06

Anything stopping the Uzbeks 'incentivising' RAB to demand their money back even if the case verdict has not been handed down in time resulting in OXUS no longer being able to meet their liabilities. Machiavellian times and my brain is working overtime obviously.

[the stigologist] 07/10/2015 09:05

Short term RSI and MACD looking oversold

[blueblood] 07/10/2015 09:00

The result should be out this month as per very near future imho. Certainly before CLN conversion date or RS will look like a fool again after his before end of 2014 fiasco.

[marmar80] 07/10/2015 08:53

That's my opinion GS.

[giant steps] 07/10/2015 08:50

mm80, "They won't get 4m from oxs" - i guess you're having a laugh - LOL !

[marmar80] 07/10/2015 08:47

They wouldn't be selling if their cash position was ok imo. They won't get 4m from oxs so better for them to convert them at full price and get the money from shareholders.

[giant steps] 07/10/2015 08:42

mm80, RAB specials do NOT need cash. They have no L/T debts, cash on balance
sheet £0.9m ending June 2015, provision for windup £0.54m, and liabilities
of £33K making it near debt free. Fund is valued at £5m, and they will put to
shareholders in Dec 2015 to windup, which may take years to realise.

They may be asking Oxus for $6M (£4m) convertible loan to be repaid in Dec 2015.

Does that make it clear ?