Oxford Biomedica Share Discussion Threads

[dominiccummings] 28/5/2024 15:49

Anytime soon....

[ygor705] 28/5/2024 15:13

Well it looks to me as if we've had our first uplift in the share price and a clear step is plainly visible on the chart. Absent a big general market movement, sustainability from here will probably be dependent on a favourable news flow. What do you think is in the cupboard Harry........and when is the cupboard door like to be opened?

[harry s truman] 28/5/2024 10:39

Nothing particularly new here in the story about the first approved R21 vaccines arriving in the field



but at the end "The Serum Institute of India, who will be manufacturing the new vaccine, says a hundred million doses will likely be available to countries by the middle of next year.".

That quote says to me that "likely" becomes "will" just as soon as Serum receive that order and sub some of it out. Remember the WHO paper about security of supply and not manufacturing it all in the same territory?

We know it's roughly $4 per shot, so Serum must be expecting an approximate $400m order any time.

Quite a lot of work (and time) to make 100m doses of anything (as we know from covid) and a lump of that order coming our way would certainly explain the sum of money in the purchasing director job spec.

[harry s truman] 27/5/2024 21:07

takeiteasy,

OXB doesn't have typical reporting, other than the results every 6 months. As I mentioned much earlier in the year, that little run we had with what amounted to a business update every month for 3 months was extremely unusual for OXB and brought hope that Frank was much more investor focussed than some CEOs.

They have promised this KPI table, mentioned last by Roch, without actually saying in what way and how often they intend to update us with that. If it's quarterly then the end of July I would imagine, but who knows.

As I mentioned the other day after posting a few things including that link for the purchasing director with the budget which seems to be for a much bigger company than OXB currently is, then all the clues are that OXB is on with something pretty big which they are also sure enough of happening for that circumstantial evidence to be public.

The trickier part is trying to guess what that might be (to stop the insider buying and such) without looking too daft with the benefit of hindsight when it actually drops.

I would expect that quite soon (relative term) and when that happens there will likely be an update of the KPIs and such attached.

[harry s truman] 27/5/2024 20:40

I don't think the world can afford another pandemic Dom. I suppose it's possible but surely they aren't going to repeat the same mistake twice and destroy economies on the back of some really dodgy models produced by serial doomsters, where the end game "victory" after spending world war sums of money we didn't have is a very shaky theory on how many lives it all saved?

I hope very much never to see anything like that again. It may have brought out the best in some people but it brought out the worst in an awful lot too.

[dominiccummings] 27/5/2024 18:58

The only comment I have is that H5N1 has been the 'candidate pandemic virus' for decades. Will it? Won't it? Who knows. Previously it was supposed to be spreading in the Far East, so unusual to find it in USA cattle, but it hasn't accellerated previously, so the odds are probably in our favour.

[takeiteasy] 27/5/2024 09:23

If we do not get a specific news release in the interim, when does OXB typically report progress throughout the year so say for the half year 2024 - is there some form of trading update in June/July to plan for?

[mirabeau] 26/5/2024 19:10

£100M spend...






Your responsibilities in this role would be:



Implement purchasing policies across all areas of the business.
Ownership of a direct and indirect spend circa £100 Million.
Develop and maintain stakeholder and key supplier relationships, both internally and externally, at all levels.
Delivering innovation in procurement, streamlining the strategies, and adding value on major projects
Managing long term pipelines for procurement, developing plans in line with the future goals of the organisation.
Work cross functionally across OXB to ensure that the procurement process is maximizing value to the organisation.
Work in collaboration with cross-functional stakeholder groups to develop & deliver sourcing best practices.
Deliver end to end sourcing strategies helping transition the procurement team from transactional to a more a strategic function focusing on category management & SRM development.
Build strong relationships across the business and with the supplier base, ensuring that business strategies are integrated into the procurement planning process

[dominiccummings] 25/5/2024 20:23

"the-intelligent-cloud-and-machine-learning"

- is simply an earlier description of the AI tools.
Nowadays "AI" has even more 'magic properties' as far as public is concerned than did 'Cloud' or 'machine learning'.

[harry s truman] 25/5/2024 15:55

I'm honestly of a mindset these days where I'll take good news from any route, but of course OXB have been playing at this for some time with Microsoft (see below) and others.



My point about comparing companies, as I've mentioned before is:-

Biotech (like OXB was) is drug development. Major worry in Biotech is will the drug work and can we sell it to a pharmaceutical company before we run out of money.

CDMO (like OXB is now) develop, manufacture and provide paid services for both Biotech and Pharmaceutical companies.

Pharmaceutical companies (household names like AZ and Moderna) are focused on how well their licenced drugs sell, when the patent life expires, and what replaces them, which brings you full circle to the Biotech companies again.

So it's all related but they are not really playing the same game.

[steeplejack] 25/5/2024 12:01

I know Harry is correctly very uneasy when i make analogies with that other ex Covid vaccine favourite Moderna but the stock continues to uncannily parallel OXBs share price moves.Moderna are up some two thirds this year,OXB around 50 per cent.The recent strong appreciation in the stock price is, in part at least,due to perceived advantages that Moderna might gain from investment in AI.Will AI deliver perceptible advantages for OXB?

[harry s truman] 25/5/2024 11:51

I think both can be true. I'm sure you are correct about part of the current situation, but we know from news stories that last year that there were record withdrawals from funds / unit trusts / whatever, and that the likes of Liontrust (big holder in OXB of course) were periodically selling a small percentage of every holding to cover those redemptions. Have those withdrawals stopped completely now or just slowed? Is it still happening but being absorbed much better by current renewed interest in OXB?

On a very small sample size I think your argument about short term profit taking is probably carried simply by some of the names frequently posting here (and then not posting here).

On the other hand, I've watched OXB for many years now and I'm pretty convinced that they have something significant and currently unknown to us on the go (unless malaria is a lucky guess).

There are too many little clues - no insiders buying after the results - no press stories from OXB to the papers following the results - the number of production staff we are recruiting - this director role with the spend which doesn't match our current business - and so on.

You could argue that it's simply organic and the proof of what Seb previously told us - i.e. 2 serious enquiries per week and a win rate which is getting us a lot of work. But after explaining that to us (and the market) more of the same wouldn't stop the insiders buying in that little open period which normally follows the half yearly financial statement.

Unfortunately these days (and this is not a complaint) the success of OXB (which I realise you would never guess by the share price) means it's increasingly difficult to keep track. I'm sure you know what I mean, but 6 customers at the end of 2017 vs 35 last month - when most of them are now confidential? It's a different kettle of fish.

There are a few things we know. We know the US government is about to sanction WuXi and we know that OXB has received enquiries from people looking for a contingency.

We know we have a deal with Serum to provide capacity to make a lot of something for a decade. We just don't know what it is. Malaria vaccine seems a good fit.

We know there is a commercial production deal for myeloma CAR-T in the works, because they told us recently - but the partner isn't obvious.

Would any of those double the spend of our purchasing team? Maybe not individually, but combined then very possibly.

Or it could be something completely different...

[takeiteasy] 25/5/2024 10:03

From what I read here, there is a sense of expectancy of new news to get the nexg leg up share price wise.

I am not sure this is needed, more that we need to work through the bits of profit taking from the recent large rise and consolidate for a little where we are...clearly a decent next trading update for H1 2024 will also help our cause..

nai etc

[harry s truman] 24/5/2024 21:42

I'd no idea the Isle of Wight was up for sale Dom.

In other news, and furthering my pet theory (with little actual evidence) that OXB have something big on the boil, I present exhibit number 34c...



We can take a reasonably educated guess that OXB's costs are about £134m per year.

Why? Because it's the upper end of Stuart's revenue guidance for a year he said would broadly breakeven.

We know the biggest fraction of that cost is people (£81m last year and will be more with France this year).

Knock £81m from £134 and something around £50m is everything else (currently).

Look at point 2 in that job ad today - "Ownership of a direct and indirect spend circa £100 Million.".

So what is that / where is it coming from / when will it arrive?

[dominiccummings] 24/5/2024 19:31

Aye and earlier today when the share price was showing as 3.30, it popped up and took my limit order at 3.35 out (small one, just to buy the lady wife something nice!).

[takeiteasy] 24/5/2024 17:38

Some clever manipulation to get the bid to end at 328.5 and protect the trend - never in doubt was it as they say :)

[dominiccummings] 24/5/2024 17:32

In the 'old days', folk didn't want to be 'out' over a weekend.....

[harry s truman] 24/5/2024 16:40

Bank holiday weekend Dom?

[dominiccummings] 24/5/2024 15:32

Very strange price action. Can't be a sell off, there is no news. The profit taking was last week. A lot of upside generally agreed.

[takeiteasy] 24/5/2024 06:34

Chart remains super interesting with
10 May low 315
17 May low 323.5
22 May low 328.5

So we have now put in 3 higher lows in a row....pressure building nicely on the upper end of resistance area, providing we maintain this pattern :)

dyor/nai etc

[harry s truman] 23/5/2024 15:27

Xoptimist,

You've obviously read the note, but they have an upside of all OXB's goals being achieved and a downside of it not happening. Their target is a little over 60% of their upside, which (given the past history of events like Homology abandoning their portfolio) seems sensible to me.

Why tie yourself to an upside scenario when a compromise is still more than double today's price and can be revised later in the year anyway?

To my mind OXB plainly have big news due. RBC as joint house broker likely know (or have worked that out) too. They likely don't know what it is, but when it arrives it will be an ideal opportunity to revise any forecasts.

Back in the FTSE250 this year and I will be more than satisfied.

[boadicea] 23/5/2024 15:12

It seems destined to break that barrier before long. In the mean time we can be grateful and buy the dips.