Plutonian , I'm pretty confident ALL of the major shareholders are looking for way in excess of £10 per share - and probably much higher .
This is almost certainly why private equity has never made a serious bid for the company . They know they would be wasting their time .
However, in the meantime ,it is absolutely infuriating that the malfunctioning UK stock market values this company at such a derisory level .
Tuco. |
We have always been very generous when paying money away Mr. President Sir, I wouldn't count on 'Not much'. |
There's more than one spiritual successor to Victor Kiam here?
4 weeks on Wednesday to the results. Likely to be nothing else before then unless Lucy is allowed to do some thunder stealing in her Florida presentation tomorrow?
(Presumably the OXB corporate Tiger Moth is somewhere mid Atlantic right now).
I think the results in April are probably the big reveal for the rrMM CAR-T deal and what it is worth, then the first guidance for FY2025.
If it's what we hope then back in the FTSE250 at the June review should be very doable and from then on it's all up.
Will be interesting to see what the last fraction of OXB Solutions costs us this month - I suspect not very much. |
Tuco, I thought you would want a lot more than double the current share price. I do.
...or are you hoping to buy the company at that price ;) |
 I only mention all this again because it's international bagpipe day and when we were having the minute's silence earlier, it gave me time to reflect on many things, not least the assumption that OXB is only ever for sale if the major shareholders are sellers.
Presumably that is why there was never a PE bid when OXB had a cash mountain and owned the buildings it now leases? Someone must have looked.
OXB have a very prestigious commercial partner in Novartis who has probably done more than most to keep OXB going with a regular £15m+ each year in return for a bucket of vector for Kymriah.
We sort of know we have BMS now too as the second commercial partner and we can assume it will be a similar amount.
3rd commercial partner could be Serum if they ever get off the pot, but it could also be Gilead. I think the old hands here all know the story well, but when the CAR-T land grab was on, Novartis signed up Penn State, BMS bought Celgene and Juno, whilst Gilead bought Kite. Kite are in with Arcellx on their pivotal trial for which we supply the vector.
If that works out then OXB will be commercial vector suppliers / manufacturers for Novartis, BMS and Gilead - which on its own would be impressive and a resounding testament to OXB, but remember this is only based on what can be found using Google searches to try to guess what is behind OXB's cloaking device - there could be much more which we have no idea of.
Back to the happy thought though, as the massed pipe bands knock out "always look on the bright side of life" - and we do know that our major shareholder recently bought a very large CDMO and has the stated aim to double it in size within 5 years.
They already own an eighth of a CDMO in Oxford, France and the US which is already contracted long term to 2 mega-pharma. Surely at 4 (or something) bolting on OXB becomes a bit of a no-brainer?
Meanwhile, March news should be us paying the put option off on Boston and making that plant fully owned. |
Dom I do sympathise .This share's current " price " bears little relation to the real " value " - which is clearly more than £5 .Sadly the UK market is in such a state that we have little choice but to grin and bear it until either -1. The govt finally makes it economically attractive for UK pension funds to invest in British equities , or 2. OXB gets swallowed by private equity at double the current share price .Tuco |
Once I am (eventually) out of OXB, I'll never buy a share again. The only thing that small PI's can expect in current investing is that the big guys will crush you one way or another, at a time of their choosing. |
c40k shares traded in the first hour tells me that international bagpipe day today and the broker note last week haven't deterred our large seller. |
#10060 and this has to do with OXB, how? |
"I remember reading during the election that one of Trump's 23 felonies was that he borrowed $17m short term against Mar-a-Lago without getting it officially valued first. The lender made no complaint, said they were happy and would be pleased to do it again should he have a similar short term need, but the investigating NY DA who was searching for past crimes prosecuted him for felony (was it wire fraud?) long after the loan had been repaid."
Well, I suppose that could be construed as the first step in a money-laundering operation, depending on the lender, and worthy of further investigation? Or, try yourself to get a mortgage in the UK, first promising that you have GBP 1 million as security and then offering only GBP 1000 as security, and report here the different reactions of your bank? Then you might see the fraudulent aspects, in spite of any post-hoc denials of the lender ie who wants to stay out of trouble themselves??? |
Harry - if that's the case, and RFK isn't an anti-vaxer, why doesn't he sue ap for this (an example - there are many such):
hxxps://apnews.com/article/robert-f-kennedy-vaccines-trump-rfkjr-7f8dcb25de76a5a70710d22bbc63f6fa |
Greetings all,
In what has been a rather unpleasant share price meltdown these past few weeks in which I have been a solid holder (congratulations for those who could see this coming and sold out in the high 300s) - I have a little bit of news which, although good, I doubt will make much of an impact except to our own confidence.
One of OXB's analysts Panmure Liberum upgraded their price target today to 560p and reiterated their BUY recommendation. Analyst Julie Simmonds is forecasting GBP162m of revenue this year (which many of us think is cautious/conservative but which would nevertheless be a 27% increase on the estimated GBP128m last year) and positive EBITDA of GBP3.2m - a lower figure than previously forecasted after factoring in an additional GBP4m on the cost base as a result of OXB's increased investment ahead of rising customer demand. Shares look good value today amidst strong revenue growth ahead; a strong customer base and more late stage client partners and growth in the broader CDMO market.
Lets hope the end of this melt down is close
x |
apple,
I'm of a similar view but I've seen so many of these things now that I won't say I'm indifferent - I just accept it as what it is.
As it's an interest of yours I'm sure you will have heard of Dr Bob Malone, one of the signatures on the original patents for certain applications of messenger RNA. During covid Bob stuck his head above the parapet and said words to the effect that there were some known issues with mRNA and if it's a calculated risk to try to help some sick individual who is already in a bad way then fair enough, but that you shouldn't be giving it to 100's of millions of healthy people as a prophylactic as you would be asking for trouble. They tried to destroy him too and then just ridiculed him. |
Super,
I think the first amendment allows citizens to have a very negative personal opinion of someone or something, but I'm pretty sure stating claimed facts is not an opinion / not covered. I'll add here that I'm not a lawyer, so take this with the usual pinch of salt, but I think that's basically it in a nutshell - i.e. everyone is allowed their own opinion, but once you go further and say that you are stating facts then you are on your own.
Libel does happen there. Henry Ford famously sued a journalist who in print labelled him an uneducated ignoramus. Henry (obviously a very wealthy man - as well as actually being an uneducated ignoramus) hired the best lawyers money could buy and won, but annoyed the trial judge so much in the process that he awarded him $1 in damages after the verdict.
It is a strange country though. I remember reading during the election that one of Trump's 23 felonies was that he borrowed $17m short term against Mar-a-Lago without getting it officially valued first. The lender made no complaint, said they were happy and would be pleased to do it again should he have a similar short term need, but the investigating NY DA who was searching for past crimes prosecuted him for felony (was it wire fraud?) long after the loan had been repaid. |
Apologies Harry - I didn't mean to mislead re. Kennedy and anti-vax.
A few points:
I am really referring to perception rather than fact or likely action, as that is what the market is trading on at the moment in regards to most Trump changes. And we agree on that point.
'Anti-vax' is obviously a catch-all and includes a wide range of people. For example I believe we need to do more research on combined vaccinations (each has been well-researched for child safety, but the combinations not so much). ie I am 'vax-cautious'.
He has been on the record re. vax linked to autism and some Covid remarks. He may have partially back-pedalled on these.
I am massively with him on improving food quality, and consumer protections. The large US healthy-food deserts need addressing, so maybe he can persuade Trump to focus on such things! |
Harry - but nor has he sued anyone for what's been said about him. More a function of the first amendment than anything to do with the facts. |
I don't wish to put a downer on the all singing all dancing, up and coming yearly's . I have been here 14 years and every year it is always muted that OXB are saving the big announcement for the financial report. It has usually disappointed spectacularly with a negative reaction to the share price Don't get me wrong, i hope this year will be different and will be delighted if it is. I have done well out of OXB and i am hoping for a quick return from my latest investment. This is a just don't build your hopes up to high post!!!! |
Just to throw one in here from my pre-results on/off hiatus...
Kennedy isn't in any way, shape or form anti-vax, but that is the mud which has stuck to him and mostly from "news" outlets which we now know took money from all kinds of dark sources in exchange for a narrative.
I've read his book and what he is (consistently) is very pro-child safety. He doesn't like the revolving door deal between the FDA and the US drug companies where they get to make fortunes from some drugs approved by the FDA which are poorly tested / have dubious efficacy at the same time as being given indemnities against any harm by the FDA/other US reguators. He's also extremely critical of certain trials (one in particular) where 3rd world kids were used as little better than lab experiments.
Kennedy is a lawyer who makes clear and direct accusation after accusation at Fauci in print about everything from AIDS drug trials to childhood vaccines. Fauci threatened to sue. Kennedy said "please do and let's hear it all in court". Fauci's lawyers dropped the suits and then the outgoing Biden (who likely didn't know what he was signing) pardoned Fauci for anything he may have done during his career, known or unknown, in the service of his country. A very comprehensive pardon? To a public servant there for US citizen safety?
Biden never mentioned Fauci's service including funding labs in China, the Ukraine and other places doing experiments which would have been illegal in the USA.
But nobody cares about any of that and Kennedy is just anti-vax. I'd recommend reading the book - and remembering that those accusations against people and drug companies have been in print for a very long time in the most litigious country in the world and nothing has happened to him except news readers labelling him anti-vax. |
marcus thanks for noting biontech article. As BioNTech had paused already I guess/hope this has nothing to do with Kennedy. I am exposed to mRNA through MRNA, and Trump is a mixed bag - on the one hand Kennedy anti-vax, but on the other Trump wants to link his administration to a big cancer development, and FDA surprised most people by not yet approving MRNA's Merck partnership treatment and requiring phase 3.
Yes Brucie's point on the ONT read across is interesting - and indeed takeiteasy's question also. I don't know enough about OXB to understand NIH risk, for example.
Finally, I note that Ameriprise also appeared to sell STB aggressively approximately at the bottom. In both cases I wonder what proportion of the portfolio, ie how big the relevant fund(s) are. ie if part of a strategic repositioning their losses may only cost a few bps but save a chunk of fund manager and analyst time (for people on a million plus a year I guess). |
Key Differences:
• Spire relies on UK-based healthcare demand → OXB is more globally exposed (CDMO clients in multiple regions).
• Spire faces NHS funding constraints & wage inflation → OXB’s cost structure is different (biotech CDMO margins).
• Spire is already profitable, but OXB is still in the growth phase → Investors may view them differently. |
BioNTech's RNA malaria vaccine trial hit by FDA hold |
Sometimes these smaller and midcap stocks hit what can best be described as an air pocket.I admit i sold 70 per cent of my holding recently(shame ! shame !)at around 375 not because i had lost faith in the company but because i was nervous of the market.My first repurchase at 330p at the end of last week was premature.What is noticeable when selling (albeit volume has picked up of late)was that even a manageable sale order of 5000 shares at a time was showing up as the largest morning trade up to 11 o clockish.Even for a private punter,OXB is a conspicuously thin market and thus very vulnerable to a change of sentiment. |
Maybe the large buys are shorts closing |
Harry S Truman5 Mar '25 - 09:56 - 10042 of 10043
-----------------------------------------------
Thanks Harry. I haven't held these for a while but do drop by from time to time to read your excellent continued coverage. I did well from the £2 level last year but lost thereafter lost conviction to hold despite changing my mind a few times. Same with ONT, which I think is now a complete and utter bargain. Lack of dividends at both, however, makes me less patient when the share price goes adrift; so I tend to restrict myself to very clear chart situations which can either materialise or not, but either way one has a steer as to what you're there for. If this returns to £2, I would almost certainly buy. For those like yourself who know the story through and through, these gyrations are just noise and you deserve to do well from your tenacious approach as well as your habitual courtesy, for which, thanks. |
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