In house broker comment? |
In a report released today, James Orsborne from Stifel Nicolaus maintained a Buy rating on Oxford BioMedica (OXBDF – Research Report), with a price target of p500.00.
Oxford BioMedica: Poised for Growth with Strong Financial Trajectory and Attractive Valuation
Tipranks just now...happy for others to confirm if this is correct...marked as "reiterate" status |
I'm not sure what's going on.
A similar US company today would have made it clear that they were now in their record revenue year. It may have even been the headline. Remember OXB's best ever revenue year was 2021 with £142.8m reported. Frank has told us today that 2025 will smash that but it's written in a way where you have to work it out for yourself.
I realise he used to run a private company where this wouldn't matter, but he's surrounded by people who are used to the stock market, so I can't believe that our issue is as simple as that.
There is some other reason here where / why Frank doesn't want to ring the bell just yet. I don't know what it is.
Meanwhile, on an extremely good news RNS announcement heavily disguised as a results notification, we have 232k shares traded at 3pm - and as SJ says, this is a public holiday for the US markets.
Something odd going on - probably as simple as a big trade seller, but I don't know. |
Agreed Harry. Would all I think 4 quid has been a pretty strong support for a while, it would be nice to at least stabilise things there for now. Might bring some relief and confidence back to a degree. |
Re 9886 - if (I stress if) we do get a very unexpected bounce back up (however unlikely this may seem right now) for us LTBHs may well assume you may be right Harry...first step to find some support levels.. |
A note from new joint broker Jefferies would be nice - especially as we seem to be a little bit under siege at the moment. |
This was last year's and I had expected similar with today's.
They plainly don't want to want to and are doing nothing wrong, but it is a little frustrating from our position of ignorance.
My guess would still be that something big (related to the long period of no insider buys) is about to drop and as it will change things significantly Frank has made the decision on what / what not to say at this point.
For this hypothetical scenario I don't think Novo are involved - I think it will be some large increase in business (maybe even a joint venture) which changes things significantly.
I still think that long term Novo are the only buyer for OXB in a bid scenario (they have the cash, already own 12% and want to build a very big CDMO) but being the only likely buyer would also give them the leeway to do it in their own time. |
what has been the historical pattern timing wise with giving out the first new annual guidance update Harry.. |
 Opening auction trade this morning was 371p followed quickly by an off book trade of the same price and £6k value. Then the SINT trades charged in and the first one of those was a single share at 368.5p which is a scenario which I had sort of expected after the arrival of the spivs on our thread lately, but I didn't expect it following the RNS.
Nice to see the RNS and that the results will be early this year. I'd half expected no specifics, so no surprise there, though there was the hint that the commercial support deal we first heard about roughly 12 months ago has now reserved space in OxBox (I'm assuming the two are the same thing simply because we heard nothing following the mid paragraph in this and that timeline would be about right, so I'm guessing it's for the same thing).
In less words we are still no wiser why OXB insiders haven't bought for so long.
My only other expectation was that the 2024 sales would be top end of guidance (we always knew that they were going to be within guidance) but all our contracts are end invoiced after supply of a validated / to spec product and that shortfall (of top guidance) literally could be as simple as big invoice they expected in December getting paid in January.
Pleased to see the orders going forwards, but other than that we could have guessed the rest - e.g. they were always going to have spent a lot on recruiting staff last year (we all saw the ads).
I expect nothing more from OXB now before the results, except perhaps related to the put option (for the last 10% of the homology deal) which was valued at £2.8m in the interim results. That would obviously take our cash a little lower in the return to profit year (this year) but presumably they will have included that in their projection.
Loan repayment isn't until Oct 2026 by which time OXB have previously indicated net earnings to the rough value of the loan, so at the moment no worries there. Whether they would actually pay it off in full or refinance again, who knows - but nice to know that they forecast the ability to do it.
France was always going to make a loss last year as IM gave us 10m towards that as part of the ABL deal. I had hoped that Boston might claw its way to breakeven in 2024 with all the new AAV (non-Homology) work and with it becoming a Lentivector hub, but that would always be a tough ask - especially as we know that OXB swapped half of what they would owe Q32 (Homology) in the final 20% put option for some of the legacy Homology obligations (I think basically the lease on the Homology part of the shared building which for obvious reasons Homology are no longer using but OXB now can). That's a huge space to expand into eventually - but obviously at a cost which has delayed breakeven for Boston.
I'm pleased with the update, but my gripes would be:-
Yet again they haven't "regularly updated the industry standard KPI table".
Yes, 2024 was within guidance (but there would have been a warning before if it wasn't so no surprise) and the one everybody is interested in now (2025 of course) is still profitable but no guidance.
We still have no clue as to why no insiders haven't bought for well over a year now - as it's very unlikely to be because of that mentioned CAR-T commercial manufacture and supply contract.
So absolutely nothing bad, with lots of hints of good to come - but very thin on specifics.
I'll be filling another ISA on the 7th, but as mentioned I'm not expecting anything else now from OXB before the 9th and I have a feeling that they wouldn't have given us this today if they didn't feel obliged to because of a previous commitment to tag it onto the results notification. Why? I'm not sure. |
Seems that the market was hoping for some metrics to be ahead of guidance, whereas everything stated as within/in line.
The order value signed in 2024, being up by 30%, is in line with the 3 year target.
Is there some fretting over cash and the progress required to reach positive EBITDA in 2025 compared to the out turn for 2024?
Clearly the late stage and commercial work reservation are positives.
The commentary from Frank is usually quite perfunctory, but I did note the bit around obtaining a greater share of a growing market. |
The lack of volume means the stock is liable to 'drift' and in a thin market the consequences can be magnified.Marketmakers don't give a stuff on the day if a stock goes up or down,their job is to stimulate volume,they're like fly fisherman trying to get their quarry to leap.Very little is going to happen today,Wall Street is closed.Take the day off! |
Profitability in last 6 months of 2024 is great news. Momentum and profit from 1st Jan this year…
Close to £200m revenue for 2025 looks achievable.
Run the metrics over those numbers to show how illogical the market is.
Looking good |
This is a muted response by the market today but its not surprising given that OXB has reaffirmed a revenue outturn for 2024 within previous guidance.Again there is a reaffirmation of EBITDA profitability being achieved for 2025,so nothing new there.Nothing unexpected then but in due course we might get more detail in respect of what appears to be an accelerating order book in the final quarter of calendar 2024.What we need is fresh buyers.It was encouraging to see the mugging trolls out last week,normally suggests that things are progressing nicely.Incidentally,Wall St closed for Presidents Day. |
Apologies everyone. I was writing my post before checking the oxb site. Good news despite early market reaction |
Well done Oxb and congratulations to all here for staying calm 😁 |
Was there any sense 2025 guidance was going to be provided with this update |
This was announced about a fortnight ago.All grist to the mill.Nominated in 'breakthrough of the Year'.All helps.https://www.plc-awards.co.uk/nominations-overview/ |
The Company expects an operating EBITDA profit in the second half of 2024.
UK site becoming profitable at the operating EBITDA level in the second half of 2024
France and US sites expected to have narrowing losses
That starts to make the overall global picture clearer then for H2 2024.... |
A great update indeed, but as they are waiting to give 2025 guidance then it is likely not the news that potentially prevented insiders from buying. |
Xoptimist I think you didn't see the 7 am RNS old boy !
Now we can all relax .
Tuco. |
Excellent. In a word…. “delivering221;.
Wouldn’t be surprised if they are trading above £5 in next couple of months. |
No it wasn't obviously. Will we see any director buys in the coming days? We will see. |
GJ, was this the "new news" that prevented everyone from buying due to possible impact on business? |
Greetings everyone after some time and I hope you are all well.
Its been a miserable and tortuous time for some of us OXB groupies watching the share price gradually erode from the 2024 high it reached on October 25th at 445p - which raised expectations amongst some of us that the assault on 500p had commenced.
Instead we have seen the price grind down lower almost 12.5% to 390p today and I share many other's views expressed here that this is solely due to a lack of any news shared from the company. We investors are a nervous bunch who sometimes find it difficult to keep our convictions and the Radio silence from OXB since we last heard anything 147 days ago on September 23rd 2024 - and the constant inevitable sleuthing and guessing game of what is happening in the absence of any transparency - ultimately erodes confidence. And also brings out the naysayers; the trouble makers and the short selling manipulators who think they can instill an dprey on fear and anxiety.
I believe the darkest hour is before dawn and almost certainly this week (quite possibly this morning) and certainly no later than early next week (so a maximum of 6 trading sessions) we are going to get a great update from the company with strong 2024 results and robust guidance on 2025 and a return to profitability.
I really want to be a beleiver n Harry's Novo theory. Sadly I am not - however compelling the case he has made. Although sometime in the next 12 months a bidder will most likely emerge and that could be Novo.
In the meantime my take away is that we are going to have to be very patient and disciplined. There are going to be long periods between trading updates when we are going to have radio silence from OXB - this is now the clear pattern of their modu operandi - we are going to have to hold our nerve and keep the courage of our convictions in the dark periods - and know that OXB remains on a very strong growth path which will see steady out performance on share price against the market.
I remain convinced we will see 600p plus during the course of this year - upside of 50% - and with the FTSE250 readmission in the summer and any other bidding interest we will go much higher.
I think this is just a matter of patience and keeping the faith. |
Register to chat with like-minded investors on our interactive forums.
Hot Features
Premium
