Oxford Biomedica Share Discussion Threads

[harry s truman] 20/5/2024 10:01

Mentioned many times here in the past Dom, but whilst I'm not going to put up the buntings for getting back into the £3 range when a smaller, lossmaking company was in the £5 range last year, it's still up 30%+ in a relatively short time and holding that level.

Things are not helped at present by OXB seemingly stymied by something which they can't talk about and which prevents / prevented the senior staff from buying.

We know there is this second commercial contract, which may or may not be with one of our vectors - and that's great news - but it's very unlikely to be the big secret.

We're only months away from IM giving OXB another 20m Euros for new shares. We've seen stories that Novo are looking specifically for bio services companies to place their weight loss profits into. We've talked about malaria for years now (since the Serum boss first mentioned it). Our huge pipeline (well, the fraction which isn't secret) moves ever forward each day.

I would expect something significant from OXB (on top of the good news story we know about). The timescale is the real unknown and that is likely out of their hands. Might be tomorrow / might be H2.

[dominiccummings] 20/5/2024 09:43

The message doesn't seem to be getting through... to analysts (in particular), and investors.

[harry s truman] 17/5/2024 23:46

or



More process improvement.

[dominiccummings] 17/5/2024 16:39

In the 'good old days' Friday was always an 'up' day.

[annes goal] 17/5/2024 08:27

not sure about a Loch Ness Monster pattern, but it could very well be a Cup & Handle 🥳

[harry s truman] 16/5/2024 21:06

I agree with all of that, but the other possibility of course is that they are simply going to manufacture someone else's vector to help with demand - so not our vector / tech improvements and therefore a straight manufacturing CMO deal rather than CDMO.

Usually the vector process is tied to the drug approval, so the vector would need to be made exactly the same way as by whoever supplied it for the trials, but that's a possibility too.

Just straight CMO style manufacturing would be less lucrative than making our own vector, but still good money for a long time.

[xoptimist] 16/5/2024 20:56

Thanks and as you say it doesn’t really matter who it is if one can overcome one’s impatient curiosity. The deal is done and it will be revenue accretive and it they have judged it passes the materiality threshold of being price sensitive and hence needing an RNS then whenever it comes it will be very pleasant

[harry s truman] 16/5/2024 20:15

Xoptimist,

It has never been clearly stated and I don't know this for certain, but my understanding is something like this:-

Juno developed the drug and target. Celgene bought Juno. BMS bought Celgene.

I'm sure you know this part but a vector is needed to turn the T-Cells into CAR-T cells with that target and Bluebird (at that time) both developed their own drugs and provided vectors for others. 270 was spun out of Bluebird.

We had a deal with Juno for some of their CAR-T and TCR-T targets but OXB have never told us which ones.

We know BMS have had supply issues (via press reports) and that they were trying all routes to get around that. We don't know what their solution was.

I think we were probably correct with discounting BMS as not a new company to us. We have existing deals with both Juno and BMS, so there's no way to spin that as new.

Similarly our deal with Arcellx (in a pivotal trial for the same disease) wouldn't make them new either.

It only really leaves J&J and as you say, to us they are a large pharmaceutical company, but, the line between a pharmaceutical company and a biotechnology company is pretty blurry and / or if OXB have done the deal with the biotechnology division of Johnson & Johnson (which actually says Jansen as the company on the approval)?

Plutonian when the RNS came out thought the best fit was Carvykti (J&J) and I can't come up with anything better.

They say the manufacturing is going to be OxBox and we know (press reports again) that the EMA has looked favourably upon Carvykti, so if you wanted my guess for tonight then I would say that a possibility here is J&J using a local Lentivector for the EMA market (i.e. OXB).

But it doesn't really matter who it is. The important thing is that the deal is already done and that we will soon have a second long term commercial supply line. The detail when it comes (hopefully soon) should clear it all up.

[xoptimist] 16/5/2024 19:05

I thought the discussion you guys have had about who this could be has been very smart and it’s most likely BMS or JNJ both of whom
Had FDA approvals for expanded use of their multiple myeloma therapies just 14 days after the March 20th RNS. What threw me was the wording “US biotechnology company” as neither BMS nor JNJ fit. So a question could the deal with with the junior biotech company which in the case of BMS is 2seventy bio. Is there any precedent where oxb signs a deal with the smaller biotech partner? In their recent results presentation 2seventybio also says that part of the FDA approval was for use of suspension lentiviral vector in the manufacturing of abecma. Surely this is the second commercial deal in the oxb slides which they took great pains on three occasions to say was excluded from the 104m backlog?

[harry s truman] 16/5/2024 18:07

I think we all know what this is likely about today.

Frank talking about finances in his piece at the results said:-

"I would like to note that this figure excludes a new order with a US client preparing for commercial launch, which we announced in March recently.".

That RNS was this one which said:-

"Recently, the Company signed a contract with a new undisclosed US-based biotechnology company for the manufacture of lentiviral vectors as the client prepares for the commercial launch of its CAR-T programme targeting multiple myeloma. Manufacturing will take place in Oxbox, the Company's Oxford-based manufacturing facility.".

So that's a signed deal where many of us have tried to guess the likely partner, but whoever it is doesn't really matter that much. What does matter is when OXB tells us the detail - and - how much it is worth to the company for how long.

For anyone looking for a very short term punt, then it seems pretty risk free doesn't it? (The deal being signed).

[dr darkstar] 16/5/2024 17:34

Loch Ness Monster? No. Pennant. Likely

[takeiteasy] 16/5/2024 17:25

Tomorrow may be interesting to watch if we get back above 3.40 and the momentum chaps decide to rejoin the fray on a new breakout :)

dyor/nai etc

[cousinit] 16/5/2024 16:27

Hopefully Nessie is wearing a large dunce's cap...

[harry s truman] 16/5/2024 16:16

I need Brucie for this one really, but if you look at the 6 month chart in the thread header, isn't that the Loch Ness monster pattern forming?

[harry s truman] 16/5/2024 15:28

A little bit more on the Cabaletta trials reporting early data soon - it will be the 14th of June.

Quote from their boss here “With no CRS or ICANS of any grade observed in either of the first patients from the RESET-Myositis and RESET-SLE trials, we look forward to presenting initial translational and clinical data from both patients during a satellite symposium at the EULAR 2024 Congress on June 14th"

Top 2 trials on this list

Relevant OXB link for us

"Oxford Biomedica initially licensed its LentiVector® platform to Cabaletta Bio for their lead product candidate, DSG3-CAART. The agreement has now been extended to grant a non-exclusive license to Cabaletta under Oxford Biomedica’s LentiVector® platform IP for their CAR-T programme, CABA-201, a 4-1BB-containing fully human CD19-CAR T cell investigational therapy. Cabaletta Bio has received two IND clearances to date for CABA-201 and plans to initiate a Phase 1/2 clinical trial for patients with systemic lupus erythematosus and lupus nephritis and a separate Phase 1/2 clinical trial for patients with myositis.".

I'm not a doctor / scientist, but no unwanted / unintended effects in the first patients sounds a big deal to me - assuming that the actual disease response is good (and why would they try to showcase it at big conference if it wasn't?).

[harry s truman] 16/5/2024 09:34

So, back to a real meeting at the company offices then.

If you wish to attend the meeting in person, please register your intention to do so as soon as practicable by email to [e-mail], but in any event no later than 3 p.m. BST on 20 June 2024.

The Company understands that the AGM also serves as a forum to engage with shareholders and shareholders’ views are always very important to us. Therefore, to support engagement, following the conclusion of the 2024 AGM, Dr. Frank Mathias, Chief Executive Officer and Stuart Paynter, Chief Financial Officer will present on the Company’s progress in 2023.Afterthe presentation, Dr. Mathias, Mr. Paynter, the other Directors and I will answer questions from shareholders. After responding to the pre-submitted questions, shareholders will be able to ask further questions in person. Shareholders are encouraged to submit questions in advance by emailing [e-mail] before 2.30 p.m. BST on 24 June 2024. We may choose to summarise and bundle questions thematically.

From

[harry s truman] 15/5/2024 16:11

Plain language PDF of the J&J Study

[marwalker] 15/5/2024 10:25

In a nutshell Tafty GeoVax has a current capitalisation of approval 3 million dollars so unlikely to be putting a great deal of money our wayStill from acorns great Oakes grow etc

[taffy24] 15/5/2024 10:21

Thanks Harry

[harry s truman] 15/5/2024 10:14

taffy,

I'd be cautious about hoping for too much there (certainly at this stage anyway) with the GeoVax deal. I like it and it's very positive, I'd just be wary that it might not be worth as much to us as we have come to expect with OXB deals.

Remember the ABL deal in a nutshell came around because ABL couldn't make traction and get access to the lucrative markets which OXB could, whilst OXB was fast running out of space / capacity for process development work - which ABL had lots of.

We had a connection to them via Seb as an advisor to IM and a dream deal was done.

However, I think it's important to remember that if anything they had was particularly valuable, then their turnover for everything last year would likely have been more than Euro 15m.

At this point I'll contradict myself (normal, as you know) and say that as the GeoVax deal was basically this time last year and this type of work almost always seems to be invoice upon completion (not stage payments), then maybe it is worth a lot more and it just didn't get invoiced before their year end.

So this is one of those situations where I'd really like to be wrong, it's just that by looking at that £13m end of year figure and noting two locations / multiple existing contracts, it does suggest that none of the existing / legacy ABL contracts are very big.

In fact (and I'm unleashing my brush of sweeping statements here) I think that because the GeoVax link is in the public domain, and had it been significant on the OXB scale, then it would have likely appeared in our presentation (on the logo page) as a win and obvious plus of the ABL deal.

I'm not trying to be negative and I will point out the obvious that money is still money and it's always nice to have, but logic does suggest the very likely possibility here that OXB has already placed more early stage work (in value) in France than they had there in total before. Maybe not, but OXB don't do anything which will be cheaper than single digit millions, so just 3 or 4 early stage process development contracts transferred to France? Remember they also started doing that in Boston late last year too, literally because Oxford is at capacity for upstream process development work.

This is a good news story and I'm not trying to pee on it, it's just a perspective thing.

The OXB watcher in me tells me that this commercial production deal which is about to drop (see recent RNS) is likely to be worth many times as much (even if the quantities aren't huge) not least because being commercial supply rather than trial support means the duration of the contract is likely to be very much longer.

If you want one of our earlier stage contracts to focus on (out of the few where we actually know a name) then I would be looking at Cabaletta.

Cabaletta may be our biggest contract (by number of programmes) because the first deal with them is for CAART and then they like that so much that they come back to us and do a deal for CABA-201.

If you look at their pipeline that's 11 programmes, but of more interest is that "initial clinical data from each of the first patients in the RESET-Myositis™ and RESET-SLE™ trials anticipated in 1H24".

(That quote is from them). So 6 weeks left in H1 and they are due early data. Because of the way these kind of treatments work, then it will be either quite obvious that it works - and a great sign for the rest with the same platform - or it won't. That one could be very positive for us.

The secret commercial deal is still likely the biggest significant near term gamechanger of the things we know about - even though we don't know the detail (if that makes sense).

[takeiteasy] 15/5/2024 07:30

Some chunky sells being absorbed quite well - long may it last ...thanks again Harry for the ongoing lucid insights opening up a world that was hidden from me before :)

[taffy24] 15/5/2024 07:18

GeoVax Reports First Quarter 2024 Financial Results and Provides Business Update



Achieved a significant milestone in manufacturing process development for Phase 3 and Commercial Production. This is an important step toward implementation of a validated chicken embryonic fibroblast (CEF) based production system for the company’s MVA-based vaccines, with the release of the first lot of GEO-CM04S1 (next-generation COVID-19 vaccine) produced with a commercial manufacturing platform. This milestone marks the successful completion of the transfer and scale-up of manufacturing from the research-focused Center for Biomedicine & Genetics at City of Hope to Oxford Biomedica, the Company’s cGMP (current Good Manufacturing Procedures) manufacturing partner.