Optibiotix Health Share Discussion Threads

[rollthedice] 07/4/2017 08:46

Hopefully we're not slipping back into old trading channel of mid 60s-80p again... that got very tedious last time :( SBTX going well this morning (+20%) but not feeding through to OPTI share price

[loungeact] 07/4/2017 08:44

It's fallen 1p - Shocking stuff. Rage how long have you been invested here?

[pglancy] 07/4/2017 08:43

MM i guess i will have to put your timely unfilter of me at face value and be thankful you are forgiving of past transgressions even though at one point you accused me of being elrico along with everyone else posting here, that could be viewed as insane or paranoid. no matter i dont care how may usernames he may or may ot have as non of t makes sense to me.

if there is a lock in period where are all the sells trades coming from? the lock in cannot be a blanket lock in. the addmission document did not say opti 42% was subject to the lock in and once opti decide how to distribute the shares they could have lock in periods could they not.

elrico are you now saying sbtx shouldnt have any value adding consequence to opti sp?

[rage0270] 07/4/2017 08:33

Falling...again..

[judijudi] 07/4/2017 08:05

Early sells again

[michaelmouse] 07/4/2017 07:46

pglancy - You were on filter because you had previously resorted to attempted personal attacks rather than making considered responses. I looked at your most recent posts because I stated that in post 1134 that "Alternative opinions accepted." Clearly you took this on board. Other usernames remain on filter where they have set up threads devoted to me which just blatantly lie or created identities such as "michaelamouse". Either actions are hardly sane are they?

"You are confusing me with opti 42%. why would the company off load them? as far as i am aware the shares dont belong to opti, they belong to share holders because opti bought the science dep at man uni for 400,000. surely this has to go back to investors like me."

They belong to the company, and they can't redistribute them because of the "lock in" agreement and orderly market arrangements. I don't know what options are available following the "lock-in" period but redistributing the shares wouldn't fit with an "orderly" market I'd have thought?

If enough institutions were interested in Opti shares (let's say two or three) then YSF could offload there entire holding immediately by placing the shares. It would be an orderly market and may in fact boost the share price if the new investors were quality institutions. Best they have done recently was around 1-2% at around 65p from memory. As I said no-one is queueing up.

If you are genuinely new to investing then read about valuing companies based on p/e ratios, cashflow, net asset value etc. and basic fundamental value. Also read about the dotcom boom and bust.

In a nutshell Opti and SBTX are highly speculative investments because they cannot be valued on any of the above measures since they are pretty much non-revenue generating at the moment. At their current market caps you are paying an incredible premium based on what you "hope" may happen sometime in the future.

All that said, I'm not a share tipping service and if you're happy with your investments then that's fine with me.

[lukead] 07/4/2017 01:11

SrrererererererrrerererrrerererererrrerrererrrrrrerrrrereerTdtrr

[elrico] 06/4/2017 22:42

pglancy - You have made a couple of awkward observations in your 1139; it is no coincidence Michaelmouse took you off filter to peep at your post - you were never filtered, neither am I - We all know why. Your other observation; "You are confusing me with opti 42%. why would the company off load them? as far as i am aware the shares dont belong to opti, they belong to share holders because opti bought the science dep at man uni for 400,000. surely this has to go back to investors like me." Indeed you are learning, sorry if that sound patronising, it's no intentional. Michaelmouses answer is smoke and mirrors designed to fool you.


OPTI acquired 72% - 52% initially for a cost of £260k in *March 2016 (*I think) and a further 20% via a convertible £400k loan. OPTI didn't buy the science department, they bought the IP from the department. SkinBiotix was NEVER part of the business model. SOH has an eye for opportunities and ran with it. In reality, there really shouldn't be a material downside to OPTI if SBTX fails because in reality, OPTI's exposure is just £660k. It can only add value, this is the genius of SOH. Even so, that value is all but temporary because in reality, though it is effectively on the balance sheet, it actually belongs to OPTI investors. You would think as I do it would have a positive impact on OPTI SP, in an ideal world it would, but for the fact the end of and new tax year fell either side of SBTX IPO and some PI not wanting to take the chance of being out, have switched part or all of their OPTI for SBTX. All of these events have had a negative impact on OPTI share price That will change soon, that I am sure of. The news floodgate will be breached soon.

Ref YSF, you are correct. I have commented on this so many times. They are a seed fund, the clue is in the name. The fund is a government backed initiative aim at funding embryonic businesses and the strategy is to exit in an "orderly manner" over 3-6 years. I think they invested the maximum allowance of £750k at 8p - you may say they have done rather well. The key here is they will want to sell the remainder over time, and as OPTI demonstrate to the wider market their worth, Finncap will find it much easier to place YSF shares with friendly II. I believe this has already happening. Why has there been no II holding RNS? Because they MUST have been UNDER 3%.

As for 4D - Michaelmouse is only using this example to plant the seed of doubt in your head. 4D is min 3 years away from a commercial product. OPTI uses GRAS OTC supplements first as a means of early revenues, with the option for pharma routes across all divisions and more importantly, JV partners carry all the risks.

[pglancy] 06/4/2017 21:03

MM, i had not realised i was on filter, why was that and why would you suddenly have the urge to read why i post? i am seek information i know i have nothing of value to add.

You are confusing me with opti 42%. why would the company off load them? as far as i am aware the shares dont belong to opti, they belong to share holders because opti bought the science dep at man uni for 400,000. surely this has to go back to investors like me.

ysf did not sell at a substancial dscount. they way it was explained to is the 1.6 m shares were placed with another insti and a discount to the share price at the time, it was not significant. i will have a look later if i can remember the date of the sale. i know the share price had actually increased at the time. another point about ysf. they are known to have a strategy designed to sell over i think 6 years or so. if this is true they have at least another 3 years to sell whatever they hold. i think they have sold nearly 7 millions already in the past year or so. so it does not seem that difficult. i take your point of insti holders. i have not seen any notifications of any new buying. i know some on the other board keep saying they are accumlatiing but i dont see how they can know without news.

didnt dddd have bad news about a trial causing a selloff? they are a pharma based so it takes longer and costs much more and much more risky. see i am learning.

i dont know what you mean about the dot com boom. never heard of it. did a company blow up and lose investors all ther money?

[michaelmouse] 06/4/2017 20:39

To emphasise my point about the 42% holding that Opti have in SBTX, think about the tortured process YSF are having to go through to offload their Opti Holding.

I think even the 1-2% YSF offloaded recently was at a substantial discount to the prevailing share price at the time, but according to the main thread an investment in OPTI is supposedly a no-brainer. None of the institutions are queuing up though it would appear. Why is that?

[michaelmouse] 06/4/2017 20:28

pglancy - I took you off filter to see if you'd asked an Opti related question. You have, so here goes.

At the moment you are quite correct, the £660,000 investment that Opti have made in SBTX is now valued at around £7.2m on their balance sheet. If you say it out loud it sounds terrific. It could go higher or lower of course.

So why hasn't Opti's share price risen to reflect this?

It might do in time, but this very much depends on the ultimate fate of SBTX and Opti itself of course. At the moment, the assets (shares in SBTX) are not for sale, and hence the true value of the assets cannot reliably be stated. It will vary from day-to-day.

If SBTX is very successful then Opti have a very valuable asset in (say) two years time. However, if it's not then the asset may ultimately be worthless since no one will take 42% of the company off their hands. Even if SBTX are successful, and I mean a proven business model making cash and profits, offloading 42% of the company wouldn't be easy.

My argument is this. I don't believe that SBTX is worth much more than the £660,000 that Opti have invested. It is non-revenue generating, and at least two years from any maiden commercialisation. The current market cap. is already over £17m. Imo that's absolutely nuts!

Not forgetting that Opti have wiped off £660,000 from their own cash reserves for a currently non-tradable asset. If Opti need cash they can't simply sell a few SBTX shares.

In the dotcom boom valuations became totally detached from reality. I think that's what's happening here. Opti's market cap. has risen to multi-millions so why shouldn't SBTX's? Both are detached from their fundamental value imo.

As a more recent example look at DDDD's chart. You were all screaming at me telling me to look at DDDD's valuation at one point. I'm looking and it's not pretty at the moment. Arguably DDDD is cheaper than Opti with around $80m? cash on the balance sheet.

Just one final word. It's interesting that the only institution that took part in the IPO was Seneca (who have sold all their Opti shares). With Opti still holding 42% of SBTX and what I've said above, I can't really see what's been de-risked? Did Opti hope to find far more interest and sell a bigger chunk of their investment but couldn't?

[riskybusiness1] 06/4/2017 19:36

Elrico - optibiotic platform is a possibility but this has much further to go before potential listing. For that sort of valuation he must have meant the whole of opti.Btw sweetbiotix though an exceptional market and opportunity its the ability to modulate the microbiome through prebiotics which would be what soh is excited about. People have no idea how massive that and revolution this is. If you read through academic publishings on this you'll see how all of them cite how massive the ability to precision engineer the microbiome will be for healthcare in the future

[pglancy] 06/4/2017 18:49

How can 400k cost on the balance sheet hurt opti?

[pglancy] 06/4/2017 18:44

MM can i ask you why you think an investment of 660,000 and now worth 8millions is such a bad deal for share holders? If some of investors are right skinbio was not even in the original business plan so does it not make sense to sell it off for a humongous profit just 12 months later.

[michaelmouse] 06/4/2017 18:22

Ask yourselves these common sense questions.:-

If the skin division is a dead cert then why has it been hived off in an IPO? What have Opti shareholders gained? Certainly not a 1 for 1 share distribution as was widely anticipated. The answer is simple, it needed £4.1m.

The thing is this though. Since SBTX is so wonderful then why didn't they just keep it in the parent company and raise the cash within Opti? Again the answer is simple, they didn't want on obvious dilutive fund raise within the parent. However, it's a fund raise by any other name.

For a long time, shareholders have kept insisting that Opti doesn't need any cash raisings. Well it's just had one. £4.1m. Opti now owns 33% less SBTX than it did before.

By hiving off SBTX what SOH and others are hoping is that they can pull off the same trick that they did with OPTI. In other words, convince gullible PIs that a non-revenue generating story stock is somehow worth multi-millions.

It looks ok so far in the sense that it improves Opti's assets on the balance sheet whilst the share price is doing well. However those assets can't be sold for two years because of lock in agreements.

If the share price of SBTX turns against them and/or things don't go well then the trick they've tried to pull will all go sour.

You'll have to pray that the bull market stays largely in tact for another two years. SOH's idea of de-risking is ok if a bull market continues, but in a bear market non-revenue generating companies that are burning cash are always the worst hit. This would be a double whammy for Opti since not only does it take a nasty hit , but it's 42% holding in SBTX starts to seriously damage it's balance sheet as it's share price begins it's slide.

Aimho of course.

Alternative opinions accepted.

[elrico] 06/4/2017 17:36

An alternative viewpoint as long as its not by elrico. OK, so you're a paranoid communist!

[lodger] 06/4/2017 17:06

No worries Dogwalker

[michaelmouse] 06/4/2017 16:59

BTW it's not a thread devoted to running down a single company. It's a thread that allows an alternative viewpoint to the ramping multi-handled posters on the other thread.

It's called democracy and free speech. If you don't like it then don't read it. That's your prerogative.

[siennadelekat21] 06/4/2017 16:57

No... But you obviously do... or you wouldn't carry on with this farce Micky! : )

[dogwalker] 06/4/2017 16:47

lodger - my apologies to you then re 21932 !

[michaelmouse] 06/4/2017 16:40

ODR - Do you think I can influence the outcome of this company or it's share price?

[onedayrodders] 06/4/2017 16:38

sheeesshh .. is this really a thread devoted to running down a single company

dear oh dear

[michaelmouse] 06/4/2017 16:37

I don't know ODR, but one of his names is elrico and he follows me about like a smell in the pants. No idea what he writes anymore. He's on filter. Sometimes likes to call himself michaelamouse. Now that's sane isn't it?

[onedayrodders] 06/4/2017 16:30

who is this sad clown MM ?