Ophir Energy Share Discussion Threads

[thedudie] 14/1/2019 07:22

Took DNO 2 weeks to go from possible cash offer to cash offer on Faroe.

[nigelpm] 14/1/2019 07:20

As expected dismissed out of hand before they've even bothered to make it a formal proposal. That's about a strong as a rejection gets without the me meaningless "significantly undervalues" line. Expected medco to walk allow the share price to fall and start building a stake. By not making a formal offer i think that's possible.

[thedudie] 14/1/2019 07:12

The Board has unanimously rejected the proposal as it undervalues Ophir.

Not a strong rejection though. They appear to have missed a word out …."significantly" undervalues or "substantially" undervalues would have done.
td

[ammu12] 14/1/2019 07:03

Offer rejected yeyyy

[wbodger] 13/1/2019 09:08

Ed, I accept with your more careful phrasing of the RNSs (Medco's and OPHR's). It looks hostile to me though.

60p would not be a knockout bid if the Tanz licence has value to Shell, who were sucked into an auction over Cove years ago and wisely backed out when the price ran away. They could get Ophir's 20% much more cheaply now. If they want the licence they could either come in as a white knight for OPHR, or offer to buy the Tanz assets alone, before control changes.

[jotoha2] 13/1/2019 08:59

Update next week will set the agenda , good figures and Medco will walk unless they agree above 68p , weak short term holders should be gone on monday , leaving spoils for the rest of us.

[ed 123] 12/1/2019 23:42

Nigelpm.

Shell have 1.5 billion boe in Blocks 1 and 4. Ophir have 0.5 billion boe. Shell could buy Ophir and get that extra 0.5 billion boe 2C cheaply (assuming
full market value for Ophir's SE Asia assets). Also, Shell would get a shot at something potentially big in Mexico.

You have your own view, but I remain of the opinion that Shell should not be ruled out as a potential suitor for Ophir.

[chestnuts] 12/1/2019 23:09

George
You are just rude and childish

[nigelpm] 12/1/2019 21:53

No way shell will come anywhere near this - far too small for them.

[ed 123] 12/1/2019 19:35

Wbodger.

Well, maybe not 48.5p. What we have atm is a statement from Medco concerning a possible offer at 48.5p. This is more or less going hostile. Ophir and Medco have been unable to agree a price which would be recommended by the Ophir board. Medco, with this statement, are appealing directly to the shareholders of Ophir. There will be conversations. If a sizeable holder should indicate that they would accept say 50p minimum, then Medco may choose to offer that (and not 48.5p), for the benefit of having at least one institution on board. Then it would be a case of seeing who else accepts at that level. Medco has until 28 January to set a level and make the offer, or else they must walk away for at least 6 months.

My reading, following the lastest manoeuvres, is that Medco might pay up to a final amount of say 54p. If they can get some institution on board at say 50p, then make that their initial offer, they would have room for a further rise of 8%, should they need it. That may be the way it goes - but that's just my reading of it.

The ideal scenario for those holders who do wish to sell remains for a bigger player (Shell?) to come along and offer say 60p knockout - their target being the Tanzanian gas.

It will be interesting to watch this unfold.

[wbodger] 12/1/2019 18:45

I'm not really objecting to shorting, naturally it provides an opportunity. I just think walking-down ahead of an intended bid should be in the T/O code just as other manipulative market activity is.

Meanwhile this is obviously now hostile, we'll see what the offer is. (Edit just remembered it's 48.5 ... doh!)

[yasx] 12/1/2019 16:29

I think the Board of Ophir ought to have announced back in October the initial propose doffer - that would have prevented Ophir sinking to the low 30's and thus avoided the attraction of a offer of 48.5p, which is a significant premium to the dec close price of 33p.

Subsequent events such as a retreat in the POO, retreat in the shareprice of Ophr as well as the failure to renew EG have all played into the hands of Medoc.

Ophir have not played this particularly well - for now.

I would cheerfully accept a bid at 50p, even 48.5p - but certainly 55p. I accept I am probably unduly dismissive of the longer term prospects of Ophir, but, I am in this for the shorter term (having to in around the low-mid 30's, so my view reflects that. But, if a bid were to fail, I would consoider buying more on any dip since this does appear undervalued (a base case has been set out by others so i need not labour that point) and there is always the prospect of a bid for another outfit.

[ohisay] 12/1/2019 16:23

i have a lot of sympathy for your view but plenty of folks including me were buying sub 35p.

[wbodger] 12/1/2019 16:11

Too much coincidence with the first approach from Medco and the price dropping from 43p to the lows of 33p

It should be illegal to short shares down before making a bid. The T/O code can cover it, after all it's just selling shares you don't have. Even as you walk it down you're planning to buy half the shares in issue at a price lower than you're selling some of them for ??? You'll have to buy more than 50% to cover your position and win the company !! Pure trading for price manipulation. What a scam.

Boards need to get wise and point this out. Tell Medco they are time-wasters. Pay a premium based on trading before they walked it down.

[arteespresso] 12/1/2019 14:20

Think we would be better off carrying on and rejecting an offer. Too much coincidence with the first approach from Medco and the price dropping from 43p to the lows of 33p.

[arteespresso] 12/1/2019 14:17

Lol, Ammu your source said a bid for 70p was coming? What happened, or are you one of these quick in/out people that like to ramp a share and then take the profits???

[chestnuts] 12/1/2019 14:08

Ammu

So what do you think will happen if May doesnt get the vote on Monday to the markets. will they go up.

[ammu12] 12/1/2019 13:32

Lol chestnut taking about parliament and then Flybe. 21 is probably his age with brain cells of a 12 year old

[prefab] 12/1/2019 13:04

That 1.6m UT @ 45p last night suggests someone thinks there's more to this. DNO/FPM comparisons are pretty pointless, FPM was a slow moving coup put in place over a year ago and DNO already held a little short of 30% of FPM before making their offer. Will be interesting to see how this plays out considering the BOD obviously thought very little of an offer @ 58.5p in October. Taking into account Medco hold nil OPHR stock I'm struggling to see how they can go hostile and expect to get OPHR @ 48.5p, they could of course just walk away but they seem to have spent considerable time and money doing their due diligence. Their mooted 'maybe' offer of 48.5p yesterday has the distinct whiff of opportunism and testing the water with IIs to see who bites. All IMHO dyor etc.

[chestnuts] 12/1/2019 11:46

Art

If some one comes in and offers 80p that would be brill, I will watch and wait for a another buyer .

Why do you think Medco can buy so cheap, could it be that money is leaving the oil sector because of western governments stance on ICE and there push on EV , I do.

[arteespresso] 12/1/2019 11:36

Oh, is that how it work? Thanks. Not getting upset, it's just laughable when people come on here coming up with completely baseless comments as to where the price will go, and then comparing this to the Flybe price/offer, who are in one of the most cut throat sectors and a complete basket case. My counter statement to your 21p is someone else will come in because of the production/cash flow/little debt and offer 80p - yes, completely random and plucked out of the air just like yours:-)

[chestnuts] 12/1/2019 11:13

Whats the point in getting upset about something you have no control of, now if the deal doesnt go through what do you think will happen to all the people who bought in just because of the offer, they will sell and the next wave down will start. And all the people who knew about the deal around the 33-35p who have bought for the deal they will sell and with the turbulance market which will happen because of Parliament this week it wont be good.