Ophir Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ashkv] 11/1/2019 17:42

Morgan Stanley has a price of 80p, RBC had a price of 90p on Ophir, Stifel 66p - per RNS's almost 80% is with institutions.

Ophir are going to update on 15th Jan the coming Tuesday as to cash position, production and such.

Production should be north of 27k bpd - if not higher. Going by 7th December Ophir RNS - where Ophir disclosed Bualang production post workovers has increased by approx 1700 bpd.

Also there should be a reserve upgrade based on recent drills.

I really really don't see institutions selling for less than 70-80p.

Morgan Stanley is a serious investment bank - and it would look very poor on their part to see a client taken on the cheap Diminish their brand / standing.

They will have some tricks up their sleeve.....

[wbodger] 11/1/2019 16:59

It won't happen but there's a lot to be said for the way DNO took over Faroe which seems to be normal in Norway: make a tender offer at, say 53p, and take out weak holders up to 30% of the total shares in issue. That's your blocking stake, so it's virtually impossible for someone else to get 50 of the 70% you don't hold, and even if someone does come in with a home-run bid it will be at a much higher price, so you make a profit. Then later you make your serious bid, when you only need 20 of the remaining 70%.

If Medco come in with 48p it would make sense for a white knight to do that.

[general george] 11/1/2019 16:43

Said the first contact was October. Lets see what happens next.

I still think 53.8p may be tabled later and accepted.

[steve73] 11/1/2019 16:39

Not clear if Medco have bought any shares prior to this announcement of their offer.
If so they would have to offer the highest price paid in the previous 12 months..
And they couldn't have bought any before around the end of July last as the price was well over the 48.5p offer.

[enewman36] 11/1/2019 16:22

yep, its going mental for sure - up 1% ffs, if that is mental you are in the wrong game!

[general george] 11/1/2019 16:15

There has been a hell of alot of buying today. This could be going hostile.....

[ammu12] 11/1/2019 16:13

Going mental

[wbecki] 11/1/2019 16:05

Best management in the business up for hire in 3 months it seems.

"Graham Stewart (Chief Executive), Jonathan Cooper (Chief Financial Officer) and Helge Hammer (Chief Operating Officer) together the 'Executive Directors' have, pursuant to the change of control provisions in each of their contracts of employment, given three months' notice of termination of  their employment with the Company. "

[general george] 11/1/2019 15:43

Nigelpm,

I was going to say they have played it cute.

Holders primed to take 53.8p.

I think a great price for them.
And SH wont grumble too much.

Right place, right them for Medco.

[valuehunter1] 11/1/2019 15:37

Im thinking the same, 53.8 could well be the end result. I would be happy with that and I'm sure a few funds like FIL will take that too. Loaded up with some more just now, gonna be a great month.

[nigelpm] 11/1/2019 15:31

Pretty fair comment GG all considered. Perhaps Medco are masterminds.

[general george] 11/1/2019 15:22

Well what a mess. 53.8p probably gets it.

[chestnuts] 11/1/2019 14:38

Trouble is oil companies are not worth as much as they use to be all the big boys are all selling the assetts they dont want, the market is flooded look at FPM taken out for 160p

[ammu12] 11/1/2019 14:30

This is gonna blow !!

[nigelpm] 11/1/2019 14:18

Might have started - 13.5m traded today - huge volume.

[ed 123] 11/1/2019 14:15

Well, if there is anyone else out there interested in buying Ophir, now is the time.

Medco go hostile? It could happen. DNO succeeded (albeit they started with a good platform), so maybe Medco will feel emboldened? There's not much to lose by giving it a try and going hostile? Medco must have spent a reasonable sum already, having advisers and gone over the assets for a few months.

Fwiw, I think a formal offer will come, and my guess is 48.5p.

[nigelpm] 11/1/2019 14:14

That misses the in play point and that they have offered 58p.

22nd Oct - Brent - $76
20 Dec - Brent - $54
Brent now $61

So ignoring Fortuna an offer of 55p would make sense.

[romeike] 11/1/2019 14:11

Presumably because they deemed the offer derisory, which it is.

[nigelpm] 11/1/2019 14:00

market disagrees - down we go

[nigelpm] 11/1/2019 13:56

If they'd come in at 58p they'd probably have succeeded.

[ashkv] 11/1/2019 13:55

Well Ophir released improved figures of 1600bpd on Bualand per 7 Dec Drilling RNS - if anything Medco should be willing to pay in the 70p range as a result....

[ohisay] 11/1/2019 13:55

Ed wants an easy life so cant see that.might be interested in picking up the remainder of the Vn asset though.So might Pmo .In fact asset stripping Ophir migjt be the optimal way to get value.

[valuehunter1] 11/1/2019 13:53

Nigelpm - Ditto, piled in with some more here, this deal is going hostile.

[adg] 11/1/2019 13:51

58p is the line in the sand as I see it