Open Orphan Share Discussion Threads

[malcolmmm] 14/4/2021 23:07

Cathal isnt the biggest holder, see below

4.81%
HBOS Investment Fund Managers Limited 32,177,427 £14.3m 121.66% 0.15%
4.48%
Davy Asset Management Limited 29,968,677 £13.3m -0.78% 1.02%
3.99%
A J Bell Holdings Limited, Asset Management Arm 26,728,249 £11.9m 84.15% 0.17%
3.65%
Cathal Friel 24,428,887 £10.9m 0% no data
3.22%
Raglan Road Capital Limited, Asset Management Arm 21,536,124 £9.6m 0% 97.06%
2.89%
Invesco L -63.19% no data not yet updated
2.58%
Platform Capital Holdings Ltd., Asset Management Arm 17,273,797 £7.7m 263.64% 25.24%
2.5%
FEXCO, Asset Management Arm 16,765,358 £7.5m 33.65% 4.13%
2.49%
Barclays Bank PLC, Wealth and Investment Management Division 16,671,901 £7.4m 166.62% 0.09%
2.44%
Anthony Richardson 16,306,437 £7.3m 0% no data
2.44%
Investec Wealth & Investment Limited 16,301,422 £7.3m 31.41% 0.06%
2.22%
Pamela Iver 14,880,721 £6.6m 0% no data
2.03%
Acacia Research Corporation 13,618,608 £6.1m 0% 6.07%
1.95%
Gresham House Asset Management Limited 13,081,337 £5.8m 0% 0.7%
1.78%
IG Group Holdings Plc, Asset Management Arm 11,914,545 £5.3m 141.62% 0.56%
1.62%
Jarvis Securities plc, Asset Management Arm 10,874,151 £4.8m -35.85% 0.27%
1.54%
Hargreave Hale Limited, Asset Management Arm 10,327,273 £4.6m 0% 0.09%
1.52%
Premier Fund Managers Limited 10,147,955 £4.5m 493.65% 0.05%
1.36%
Legal & General Investment Management Limited 9,090,909 £4.0m 0% no data
1.34%
Schroder Investment Management Limited 8,964,578 £4.0m 0% no data
1.32%
Equiniti Group Limited, Asset Management Arm 8,869,039 £3.9m 81.95% 0.07%
1.25%
Alliance Trust Savings Ltd. 8,357,740 £3.7m 35.65% 0.7%
1.22%
UBS Asset Management 8,142,486 £3.6m 94.54% no data
1.17%
Brendan Buckley 7,845,860 £3.5m 0% n

[ironman22] 14/4/2021 22:51

Talk of £100m market capital moved on to $1bn. This then morphed for the "core" of the business, and that for "non core" you could add a similar amount.

It hasn't 'morphed' for the core of the business. CF stated in his last webinar that the $1bn valuation was for OO and all of the spin offs.

[pogue] 14/4/2021 21:52

Purchase perhaps, considering all the disposals he is trying to get done I cant see him having time to buy another company and what is ORPH missing that it needs? We can get clinics easy enough without buying a company plenty of hotels.
As to the raise the price as a defensive move against takeover who knows there as well. I am fishing for views here another piece of the puzzle was that a while back CF said in a presentation that SGS had no interest in CHIMS, found that in my notes today, but what were A&O sniffing around for and for whom?
Not a lot stacks up just now, the story is changing and the share price racing its worth trying to work out why.

[troutisout] 14/4/2021 20:25

Your second answer is my favourite.

[1gw] 14/4/2021 20:19

Or if it's using ORPH paper to acquire something (as he did hint in that longer interview that he would probably add something else after Venn and hVIVO), then a high shareprice would also help there.

[1gw] 14/4/2021 20:16

Well if he is trying to make ORPH more indigestible to hostile interest (if that's what you're hinting at), then being more transparent about revenue expectations might help achieve that.

ORPH is perhaps particularly vulnerable to hostile interest because of the lack of big institutional holders. When the biggest shareholder (CF) has only 6.7% of the company and no-one else has more than 3% then defending against a hostile bid which offers shareholders an immediate gain might be tricky.

A good start would be exposing the "hidden gems" (non-core assets) to get some value for them into the shareprice. The CEO saying he wants to buy more himself might also help, as might ambitious market cap targets. But also getting the house broker to produce a forecast which spanned the near-term growth years, identified likely and possible revenues in the near-term (1-2 years), and produced some willing-seller/willing-buyer valuations of non-core assets could do wonders for investor sentiment and market valuation.

I find it curious that finnCap didn't even mention ORPH in its Morning Note the day of the spinoff RNS (as far as I could see). Perhaps they are working on a much more comprehensive piece to come out alongside the results?

[troutisout] 14/4/2021 20:13

pogue,
What's the opposite to selling a Company?

[demong] 14/4/2021 20:07

He reiterated slow and steady growth numerous times in order to manage expectations. Since June last year he’s known about Placee’s flipping, Acacia selling and finally Invesco selling. So he new any growth would be stunted by II’s. Now, we are pretty much free as a bird and the news is stacked up ready to be released and he knows the impact it will have on the SP, he knows what he’s got and where we’re going and now is the time to talk it up.

[molatovkid] 14/4/2021 20:05

Does it matter about whether he mentions a slow & steady share price or not ?

[eeza] 14/4/2021 20:02

A larger cap is a lot more attractive to bring in larger Insti's also.
Lots of Insti's have (higher) minimum caps at which they are able to invest.

[pogue] 14/4/2021 20:00

I dont remember it, please advise I dont do guessing games.

[troutisout] 14/4/2021 19:26

Think hard about why you might want your stock price higher (even if you say you want to purchase more?). There is a clear reason and I am sure that it was mentioned by CF recently. It's not to sell the Company....

[lfdkmp] 14/4/2021 19:25

Well pogue - on that specific point, my conjecture is that a slow and steady rise offers little protection against a low ball opportunistic bid from a predator who similarly sees the world breaking potential.

Purely conjecture, of course.

(Apologies this briefly appeared under the long redundant handle above)

[pogue] 14/4/2021 19:02

All the above is obvious but still doesn't answer the question why he has stopped talking of a slow and steady rise in the share price. The last presentation was back to the more bullish days. No doubt we will find out in due course.

[lfdkmp] 14/4/2021 18:42

My conjecture is that CF has progressively re-evaluated what he's holding here in ORPH.

If my fallible memory is having a good day, I recall that his early intentions with ORPH were a quick clear-out, spruce up and sell on. - (bit like Homes under the Hammer...or whatever it's called :-)

However, with the rapid pandemicisation of the world, and ORPH's emerging relevance to this disturbing new world, Mr Friel quickly started to realise what a nascent transformational company he is holding.

Talk of £100m market capital moved on to $1bn. This then morphed for the "core" of the business, and that for "non core" you could add a similar amount.

Now we have ORPH Pharma, DIM and other potential spin offs (don't forget Imutex I remind myself).

My conjecture is that CF, the deal maker, now finds himself fortuitously (I'm sure he'd be the first to admit "fortuitously")in one of the sweetest COVID/post COVID spots you could imagine.

Instead of sorting out hVivo/ORPH for an early opportunistic sale, the challenge now is to manage this unique, emerging world leading organisation to its full potential.

My view so far is that he ain't doing too bad a job.

My conjecturing question is when will the talk be of $2bn market cap, not $1bn?. :-)

[inaminute] 14/4/2021 17:53

Pointless splitting hairs as no-one knows other than him. Everything else is pure conjecture.

[fft] 14/4/2021 17:19

To quote Shakespeare , "he doth present to much" ! It does seem, having a decent stake/options in ORPH , that he realises having a takeout at a higher price is better for him, so has used his position to push ORPH so the share price rises and any take out will be at a higher price.It is good for him and also good for us !

[donaferentes] 14/4/2021 17:06

Just received a Notice of Corporate Action from my broker. General meeting 29 April to approve reduction in capital and dividend in specie to spin out non-core Digital Assets into ORPH Pharma (Newco). Terms tbd. Moving along as planned

[pogue] 14/4/2021 16:51

Inaminute
What happened to the slow steady growth mantra he was pushing hard and telling everyone he did not want a price spike? Not seeing how splitting hairs about above or below a $1billion valuation is really an answer to that one. He has changed tone its clear he is definitely not trying to talk things down that's for sure.

[inaminute] 14/4/2021 16:42

He has stated his target is a $1bn company including spin-offs. Figures above it are speculation.

[m5] 14/4/2021 16:31

1gw14 Apr '21 - 15:46 - 14446 of 14449

If I remember CF was asked about FinnCap on one of the presentations and their BN value at the time. If I remember he said that maybe they were not up to speed as much as they should be, and he needs to get more involved in making sure they fully understood the business. Maybe CF is quite happy to keep the price in check, he has said so on various occasions, although of course we have seen a very decent jump in recent weeks. Maybe its all about flying under the radar and then of course making a bigger impact when the numbers are released. Don't know, pure speculation on my part.

[pogue] 14/4/2021 16:31

If he is trying to suppress the share price so he can buy in he is doing a very bad job of it! He keeps quoting we are a $1 billon company, gone is the slow steady growth mantra. Why has he changed tone recently?
I think guidance will be forthcoming with the results which are due and promised about now.

[inaminute] 14/4/2021 16:23

He has stated he wants to buy more shares. If he posted all the info the share would probably rise. So why would he at the moment? Particularly if there is not a potential buyer circulating. I am not personally interested in maximising the share price on a short term basis as I will not be selling, more interested in maximising the long game.

[1gw] 14/4/2021 16:21

To be fair, the business has been moving at breakneck speed, so he probably (with reason) hasn't judged it a priority to pay much attention to systems designed for transparency of financial information flow to the market.

But now that he's publicly targeting $bn-type market cap and actively looking for investors to take on spincos, it's perhaps time to up the game on financial transparency.