Open Orphan Share Discussion Threads

[extrader] 14/4/2021 16:12

I don't see why CF couldn't post a quarterly 'bundle' of contracts (to preserve confidentiality), just giving total value of contracts awarded and a weighted average duration.

With Venn reportedly winning contracts virtually on a weekly basis ('not worth RNS'ing') that alone would muddy the waters nicely, whilst still providing evidence of 'flow'.

[1gw] 14/4/2021 15:46

But that also indicates a bit of an issue with how ORPH communicates with the market. CF drops lots of hints in terms of how far ahead and how fully the clinics are booked, but there is a gap between that and what the analysts (including finnCap) pick up.

I would hope that he will attempt to address that when he issues 2020 results and gives some commentary on "current trading".

This "nudge and wink" method he has of communicating with (mainly retail) investors through the many presentations he does probably puts off some institutional investors, who are used to more traditional (and formal) dissemination of forecasts through house brokers or directly from the company.

[m5] 14/4/2021 14:59

Most of them are just fit for wiping your backside on I am afraid.

[pogue] 14/4/2021 14:52

That is the problem I have never read a report that any reporter/analyst/idiot with a keyboard has managed to come close to reality for our earnings in 2021. By my calcs Venn will get about that amount alone.

[brianp14] 14/4/2021 14:48

29m revenue forecasts? Lol

[eeza] 14/4/2021 14:07

Game on, again.

[pierre oreilly] 14/4/2021 10:37

With soon most people having been vaccinated, the general requirement of drugs testing will shift from the effect of the drug on unvaccinated people to the effects of the drug on vaccinated people. I.e. I. A year's time say, the requirement to be accepted for a ch study will be you will have had to have had the covid jabs.

[pogue] 14/4/2021 10:34

The vaccination program is accelerating not decelerating.

[troutisout] 14/4/2021 10:34

What when the target is still to vaccinate all adults by the end of July?

[lazarus2010] 14/4/2021 10:31

.."The problem pretty soon in UK will be lack of unvaccinated volunteers. Overseas expansion is coming..."

I wouldn't say this problem will be pretty soon as they are now only just inviting the over 45s which is effectively 45-49 age group. Could be 6 months before they get the 20-25 year olds.

[eeza] 14/4/2021 10:26

And CF has the Gov's ear.

[pogue] 14/4/2021 10:25

Extrader
saved me typing there. The bit to add on is SGS have a clinic in Belgium.... handy for French based volunteers.
We may rent it, or who knows....

[extrader] 14/4/2021 10:20

.."The problem pretty soon in UK will be lack of unvaccinated volunteers. Overseas expansion is coming..."

A nice problem to have ;->!

CF is already 'on the case' - he's targeting Ireland and France (hence, maybe , St Pancras). They both have larger 'naive' populations.

In this context, CF has mischievously suggested that the Irish - screwed by Brussels over vaccine availability - may welcome a supportive gesture from the UK.

Which would be in our interest (a) for goodwill over the NI border situation and (b) because Ireland's part of the Common Travel Area ie within our safe corridor.

IMO

[extrader] 14/4/2021 10:12

They ARE doing trials :

.."A mix and match Covid vaccine trial is being expanded as we await the results of the first stage of the study. The UK trial is looking at whether two-jab vaccines can be mixed with different types.
More than 800 people have so far taken part in the Com-Cov study, with the results expected next month. Experts are trying to find out whether combining vaccines might give broader, longer-lasting immunity against the virus and new variants of it, and also offer more flexibility for vaccine rollout.
Health experts generally agree that mixing and matching vaccines such as Pfizer and AstraZeneca jabs should be safe and the trial will check for any side-effects or unwanted reactions.
If you're an adult over 50 who has had a first dose of Pfizer or AstraZeneca you can apply to take part...."

[pogue] 14/4/2021 10:04

The problem pretty soon in UK will be lack of unvaccinated volunteers. Overseas expansion is coming.

[ped2323] 14/4/2021 10:00

1gw - I agree that earnings figures are low but these are taken from ORPH’s brokers. I’ve posted in the past that I think CF is happy with the broker reports as they keep a check on the share price whilst he simultaneously talks up the stocks potential. The result is a nicely rising share price with no big swings. CF has said in the past that II’s “don’t like large swings”. (NB I don’t either!)

When ORPH updates the market on 2020 trading in a month or so, I also expect the sales and profit “guidance̶1; figures will be fully out in the open for 2021 (as part of forward guidance) and these figures to be better than the broker “forecastsR21; GLA

[troutisout] 14/4/2021 09:56

They don't need to do CHIMs on them to see if they are safe.
Now if they wanted `to see if they worked against the virus they could instigate a CHIM trial where volunteers would be infected. But remember there are capacity constraints on how many Covid CHIMs can take place, I am sure there is a long queue.

[extrader] 14/4/2021 09:56

Define 'worth while'. If it makes for a cleaner structure, it potentially adds value on a 'sum of the parts' basis : think of CF as a 'benign asset-stripper'...

;->

[malcolmmm] 14/4/2021 09:53

He woulnt spin them off if it wasn't worth while.

[1gw] 14/4/2021 09:50

As I heard it he also said in that longer interview that he thought he could "easily" get $300m-400m by dual listing one of the non-core assets - presumably he was thinking of the immune modulator.

There may be some salesmanship in that quote, and "full" value may not be reflected in the market cap of the newco until around the time of the Nasdaq listing but it gives you an idea of what might be possible.

[pierre oreilly] 14/4/2021 09:49

Non core, not bonfire!

[pierre oreilly] 14/4/2021 09:48

Wreck, agree, within orph with nothing being spent on them, the bonfire assets are valued at nothing.If say dim floats, I think it could be initially floated at a billion, quite easily raising 900m cash, imply an inherent ex cash value of 100m. The value come from the asset itself plus the cash to develop it iyswim. (Effectively, we'd get shares in the floated company worth 100m divided by us all.) (Not a prediction btw, just an illustration of why it's worth nothing with no cash inside orph, but worth something with cash outside orph).

[ped2323] 14/4/2021 09:40

Regarding the non core assets, CF has said in the past that the DIM data might be worth more than ORPH’s market cap (he said this when ORPH had a market cap of circa £150 m) However since then he’s said again more recently that DIM may be worth more than ORPH’s core business (which has obviously increased in value since he first said it)

Regarding FLU-v, CF has guided us in the past that another company sold its similar asset for circa £300m, and ORPH’s 49% share in this asset would therefore be worth about £150m.

GLA

[pierre oreilly] 14/4/2021 09:35

C has told us the answer in one of his old interviews. When he was advising on floating companies, when some director asked him how much his company will be worth at the float, he used to say 'what do you want it to be worth?' or similar. I.e. as much as the lacking fundamentals, there's hype and hard work by brokers involved which greatly affects the float value. After the float, the market decides ( totally irrationally usually).