Open Orphan Share Discussion Threads

[1gw] 14/4/2021 09:33

Ped - the question there would be where are they getting the "E" bit of the P/E from for 2021? Back-calculating from their 32 number and mcap of £297.3m gives E of £9.3m. finnCap has an (adjusted) P/E of 31.3 for 2021, so slightly lower than your link, but only has £45m of revenue.

The problem is that the finnCap revenue number looks wrong to me (very low) if hVIVO have filled QM and are likely to have a slug of government revenue from the RF and some additional revenue from the third facility. And then there's the VENN revenue as well.

So we're really waiting for some 2021 guidance from ORPH/finnCap which is consistent with CF's statements on utilisation of the clinics - to better inform analysts earnings and prospective P/E estimates.

[wreckage] 14/4/2021 09:32

Non core assets are not worth anything to the company that owns them; their contribution to the companies profitability will be negligible. However to another company they are worth what they are prepared to pay. This could be minimal or if a bidding war ensues it could be a fortune

[fft] 14/4/2021 09:26

Question. How do you value the non core assets ? What valuation criteria should be used ? I have seen lots of numbers printed/quoted but how are those numbers being generated? Not P/E. Is it PSR (price to sales ratio). And what competitors or companies in the same space are being used for comparison ?

[ped2323] 14/4/2021 09:13

Published today and has a neat summary of 4 non core assets.

Also shows ORPH’s current Price Earnings ratio is 32, falling to 20 in 2022. (Obviously excludes all non core assets).

Stockopedia puts ORPH in the ‘Bio & Medical research’ sector which has an P/E ratio of 31.9


Hence it demonstrates that ORPH’s core business is currently correctly valued, but also undervalued on a foreword looking basis.

But it is significantly undervalued when you add the potential value of 4. non core assets.



Safest investment on AIM. IMO.

GLA

GLA

[glasswala] 14/4/2021 09:02

Mix and match vaccines being suggested.Should they not be doing a CHIMs on them to make sure they are safe

[pierre oreilly] 14/4/2021 08:55

Hi klos, your question deserves a considered reply, so mind if I answer later when the market's close. Thx

[scottishfield] 14/4/2021 08:51

Yes, v well Lauders. Enjoying things. The v best to you. Great to see you on board.

[lauders] 14/4/2021 08:46

Good to see you here scottishfield! I bought in at 47p the other day but am not too concerned to be honest. Could have timed it better! Hope you are doing well?

[scottishfield] 14/4/2021 08:45

Yes terrific turnaround yesterday.

[garth] 14/4/2021 08:44

m5,

don't look now, but we are on the move again. I think yesterday's reversal says it all re direction of travel.

G.

[m5] 14/4/2021 08:34

Morning all. I would be quite happy to see a few days of share price consolidation now after the excitement yesterday. Solid start, no dramas. Lets build another base from this higher level.

[malcolmmm] 14/4/2021 00:02

Last time I added was when the share price dropped from 32p to 22p 30% .Longer term investors should be used to the volitivity , that's if you ever can. I would have thought that news of the spin-offs would bring in more buyers and was surprised at the sell off as Cathal is trying to benefit investors.

[klosters65] 13/4/2021 23:14

Pierre you write thoughtful /knowledgable posts, great fully received by me and others, I am sure. Then you let yourself down by getting involved in a slanging childish fight with scotty. Who cares who is right or wrong.

[inaminute] 13/4/2021 22:13

And me. Happy to leave it to the main guy who seems a very astute businessman with interests aligned well with shareholders. Interested to see how the rest of the week plays out.

[molatovkid] 13/4/2021 22:00

Same here mike....seems the best way to play this to me !

[swallowsflysouth] 13/4/2021 21:57

I have taken the opportunity to top up, didn't time it particularly well, but never the less was not expecting quite so much of a fall in share price The future bodes well. I guess it highlights the types of investors around nowadays that so many felt it necessary to exit.
Years ago when i first started investing after interest rates where falling drastically i found an oil company that was been taken over at £20 a share and the shares were sitting there at around £17/£18 and would be sitting there for a couple more weeks. I couldn't believe it, a easy 10/15% for a couple of weeks investment. That was pretty much the start of an education in how short sighted many investors are.

[mikeh30] 13/4/2021 21:01

Not selling any here. I await the spin offs. Check out DXRX too for medical data play

[thomas11] 13/4/2021 20:59

The next Apple event is 20th April -what a day to announce a contract with DIM, I can dreamGLA

[pierre oreilly] 13/4/2021 20:18

I thnk after the blip today, it'll be normal service resumed tomorrow, with 80 or 90 people happily gone from orph with eighty quid in their pocket looking for the next opportunity, and plenty more happy that the shares are now in more permanent hands. Today's rns added quite a bit to the value of orph, even though there was nothing definitive in it, So the value took a step up, and the price a small step down at the end. So better value tomorrow. The business value is appreciating quicker than the price imv.

Orph initially had money thrown at it by ip group (ipo) (as well as woodford/invesco!) where i had invested, and where i first heard of orph. There's no doubt whatsoever in my mind that in a fundraising of anything spun out of orph, ipo will stump up lots of investment cash - they are full of the stuff (and about to get another £350m cash on the nano float) and need more first stage tech pharma opportunities. IPO's backing lowers the risk of any company where it owns a stake (because it can always pump in more cash if necessary). Therefore, whatever is spun out of orph is very likely be a great long term hold, whether forced or not.

[jeanesy] 13/4/2021 19:40

Wish i hadnt been at work. would have bought a few more at 40p . well done those that did !

[lako42] 13/4/2021 17:00

An excellent day all round. A transfer of shares from inpatient fools to hopefully patient and savvy investors who understand the fundamentals at play here.

[bearnecessities] 13/4/2021 16:59

Well that was quite a day and a swing. Circa 15% I think.Huge demand for shares, and that bounce was epic. We'll have rinsed a few traders out today, and some will no doubt be back in for the next leg up.Great volume today too. Just keeps going from strength to strength.

[podgyted] 13/4/2021 16:54

Many millions of shares in firmer hands.

[1gw] 13/4/2021 16:46

Yes, down 0.5p on the day doesn't quite tell the story, does it?