On The Beach Share Discussion Threads

[disc0dave46] 09/12/2023 10:19

Sorry but in Paul's defence he is definitely not a tipster, he never ever suggests that people should buy or sell shares. He analyses fundamentals and publishes his opinion but without any recommendations other than to DYOR.

[blueball] 09/12/2023 09:16

Stay long.

[seroserio] 08/12/2023 15:07

Just a gambler. Lost all his money twice. Forensic analysis but can't see the wood for the trees. Like all tipsters, to be noticed only in so far as they influence the shoals.

[roghart1] 08/12/2023 11:44

For me, Paul Scott is a must read every morning on Stockopedia.

[blueball] 07/12/2023 14:54

Next stop 180p ..golden cross approaching.

[adamb1978] 07/12/2023 08:15

I don't follow him Extrader so haven't seen his comments, whether bullish or bearish.

Some of his comments on various companies get re-posted on various advfn boards so I see some of them via that, and a lot of his comments seem to be him shooting from the hip without any thought behind the views e.g. I've seen comments from him criticising tech companies for not having balance sheets with high levels of tangible assets.

I'm not sure why I would ignore any long-term +ve stance which he has on OTB as you suggest(?)

[extrader] 06/12/2023 22:02

You're obviously unaware of - or choose to ignore, for reasons we can all speculate about - Paul Scott's (long term) positive stance on OTB, exemplified only yesterday where his exec summary observation (knocked out by 0858) was

On Beach group (LON:OTB) - up 15% to 135p (at 08:58) £225m - Preliminary Results - Paul - GREEN

Sparkling results for FY 9/2023, driven by continuing strong demand for holidays, and bumper finance income from the big cash pile. Outlook sounds really good too. Cash conversion not quite so good, due to heavy capitalised development spend, but is still enough to reintroduce divis shortly. I remain at GREEN, it's trading well, and looks reasonably priced still.

followed shortly after by 3 sides of A4 equivalent detailed writeup.

That's MY keyboard warrior analysis, anyway.

ATB

[adamb1978] 06/12/2023 20:31

Hi ddubzy

Yes, I'm sure he would have done. Just like Paul Scott - one of the worst keyboard warrior analysts who generally spouts rubbish.

I'm happy when analysts like Scott/Navedtrader etc post their bear-ish views if they're based on fact, but they often their posts have minimal/no rationale and comments like 'worth a look at x y and z'...with those factors just being things that they've been too lazy to look at themselves.

I find it amazing that these idiots have any following!

Adak

[aishah] 06/12/2023 15:40

12mth rolling fcst:
p/e 9.6, peg 0.3, eps growth 58%
Mkt cap last close £230m vs. EV of £157m! £4.1m interest received on cash balance.
Will be looking to add on pull backs.

[milliecusto] 06/12/2023 14:24

Rsi at 85, needs to cool for next leg up

[ddubzy] 06/12/2023 14:24

Wasn't NakedTrader shorting this recently. But of course I would assume he would of sold for a nice profit prior to this lovely rebound.

[aishah] 06/12/2023 13:53

Shares in On The Beach (OTB) were up over 14% to 133p in morning trading as the online package holidays in the sun seller said group adjusted pre-tax profits were up 66% to £23.6 million for the year ending 30 September 2023.

On The Beach said it had 'the best summer ever' and delivered 'record total transaction value (TTV) of £1.1 billion in full year 2023, up 26% year-on-year.’

It was good news for shareholders as the company reinstated its dividend from full year 2024 ‘reflecting the group’s continuing cash generative position and in line with its capital allocation framework.’

Shaun Morton CEO of On The Beach told Shares: 'These set of results show that people are still prioritising holidays despite the current market conditions [ongoing cost-of-living crisis], spending £600 to £650 per person on an average family holiday.'

Morton said long-haul destinations like the Maldives and short-haul destinations like Spain continue to be popular with customers along with 'new destination' Turkey.

‘Turkey has become increasingly popular as well for customers wanting the security of a five-star all-inclusive break,' said Morton.

The company said forward bookings remained strong with ‘sustained significant demand for short and long lead time bookings.’

Shares in On The Beach rise 14% lifted by strong forward bookings

Russ Mould investment director at AJ Bell said: ‘Holiday seller On The Beach is making a comeback after a difficult few years. A strategic push to become bigger in the premium and long-haul beach holiday markets initially spooked investors who feared it would have to stomach considerable marketing costs to get its brand front of mind for travellers. However, the move now appears to be paying off.

'Up until six months ago, chasing the premium end of the market seemed like a no-brainer on the assumption that wealthy people wouldn’t change their spending habits despite higher inflation.

'But in recent months we’ve seen cracks in the luxury goods market which suggest wealthier clientele aren’t completely immune to cost-of-living pressures. Will this trickle down to the premium holiday segment? Judging by On The Beach’s outlook statement, it hasn’t happened.'

sharesmagazine

[blueball] 06/12/2023 13:38

150p next stop.

[kemche] 05/12/2023 11:19

Well that's all rather impressive.

[dr biotech] 05/12/2023 09:37

Only a moderate position for me but has done well. Can't see any problems with the results - will be a medium term hold for me.

As they say holidays are now becoming an essential - or at least seen to be one.

I'm not sure the Saga debacle will make a lot of difference. I know they aim to place themselves as the premier supplier to 50+ demographic but its probably closer to 70+. I certainly wouldn't use them.

[elsa7878] 05/12/2023 09:35

Didn’t like the bit about LCA’s obstructing sales to OTA’s. Very anti-competitive. Then says growth from Long haul, I guess as Short haul is so competitive.

[blueball] 05/12/2023 09:32

kumo bull break-out last month @110p.

[adamb1978] 05/12/2023 08:58

Cash is a little bit misleading given teh seasonality, but even at the mid-year cash low point they should now still be >0, hence being able to pay a reasonable divi. 2% yield would only cost them £4m, which they could easily afford. I'm not an income investor, but that divi would allow certain funds to invest where by the nature of their mandate, their investee companies has to pay a dividend

Comfortable potential to multi-bag in my view

[undervaluedassets] 05/12/2023 08:54

"research shows that summer family beach holidays are increasingly viewed as sacrosanct. Our YOY volume data for Summer 23, Winter 23/24 and early stage data for Summer 24 indicates a positive trajectory, with 3* volumes for S24 ahead of Summer 23. We expect volumes in the 3* value market to exceed pre-pandemic levels in FY24."

the above extract perhaps the most pertinent passage

[undervaluedassets] 05/12/2023 08:48

Rather pleasing

They could well multi-bag.

Look at the cash.

[babbler] 05/12/2023 08:47

10am presentation should help.

[adamb1978] 05/12/2023 08:40

Yes, getting through that 120p level is handy. Hopefully we can stay there til the close

[mrnumpty] 05/12/2023 08:34

Also , the future of Saga , a competitor in the premium market , is now very shaky . There was a large article in the Daily Telegraph of 30/11/2023 titled ‘ The scramble to save Saga from being pulled under by a weight of debt ‘ , which stated that , with a market cap of a little over £ 160 million , Saga has debts of £ 657 million . The Telegraph article claimed ‘ Soaring interest rates have left [ Saga ] scrambling to reduce that borrowing pile rather than refinance it at much higher rates ‘ . Also , rising interest rates have increased the payouts from Saga’s insurance arm . The Telegraph believes that the ‘ sky high debts make [ a possible takeover of Saga ] unlikely …’ There is no natural trade buyer for [ Saga ] says an analyist ‘ ‘ . Also , Eusn Sutherland , CEO of Saga , is leaving . The holidays offered by OTB and Saga are not quite the same , but Saga’s market of the wealthier over-50’s would be attracted to OTB’s premium offering .

[saadia110] 05/12/2023 08:25

Broken the 120p long standing resistance. Clear skies ahead towards 200p+. Previous double bottom confirmed.

[adamb1978] 05/12/2023 08:18

Well done. I'd meant to add a handful more in the last few days. Only a few though as I was close to my position limit. Will have to wait to see whether it slips back now!