On The Beach Share Discussion Threads

[suffolkjim] 13/10/2023 13:34

AdamB
Interest rates will still be relatively high as people's mortgage rates expire, so cost of living crisis will not be over.
I wonder if this is a reaction to what's happening in the middle east and it's likely outcome?

[adamb1978] 13/10/2023 12:47

Cost of living crisis is in the past. Inflation will be 4%-4.5% by year end and 3% by easter, and wage growth is now up with inflation.

I think you just have to stick to fundamentals - good balance sheet, inexpensive multiple, cash generation etc. OTB ticks all those boxes

[cyberbub] 13/10/2023 12:45

Disappointing still falling here, given the very low p/e and (seemingly) strong travel market. A head and shoulders pattern being confirmed. Question is whether to sell out or buy more?Are investors perhaps looking 'forwards' 12 months and thinking that the travel market might be weaker next year as the cost of living crisis continues to bite?

[aishah] 12/10/2023 08:59

SCSW is an excellent resource to kick off further research. Just don't follow them blindly imo.

[adamb1978] 12/10/2023 08:52

SCSW is good for a starting point of research. Nothing more, nothing less, but it does a reasonable job IMO. If you were to buy 1 of their companies, what % would you need to make to cover the fee? Pretty low...

Back on OTB, can someone remind me what market expecations were at the time of their recent TU? i.e. please could someone put numbers to

"Group EBITDA in line with market expectations and Group adjusted PBT at the top end of the range of market expectations, benefitting from higher than anticipated interest income"

Thanks

[trader465] 12/10/2023 08:44

SCSW are just journalists, they don’t make money from trading, or being right or wrong, they make money from people paying £180 subscriptions. If they were that good they wouldn’t need to tout expensive subscription services.

[aishah] 12/10/2023 08:38

Latest issue of SCSW (scsw.co.uk) repeats its view that a predator will pop up here soon.

[paleje] 12/10/2023 07:51

Yes kibes excellent update, divi restored, more aircraft ordered and forward bookings at record levels, despite current market despondency they are buoyant and we share the same market sector.

[kibes] 12/10/2023 07:37

Record results from Easyjet today, profits of £650 million in just Q4!

[darrin1471] 06/10/2023 09:04

No disclosed shorts above 0.5%

[cyberbub] 06/10/2023 08:49

Has anyone got the short interest figures?

[adamb1978] 06/10/2023 08:40

He has something of a following so that probably explains the pull back recently. we know that current trading, or bookings for 2024, is decent though so I'm not so concerned

[trader465] 06/10/2023 08:35

Robbie burns is short here…

“Another short that interested those at the retreat was On The Beach which spiked up on results while we were there.

None of us thought it really merited the spike up so it was deemed a short and I went short on it.”

[cyberbub] 06/10/2023 08:31

As pointed out by one of the tipsheets, if the share price remains depressed down here it's likely that a bigger fish will spy a tasty meal. Minimum 150p if they made a bid today I reckon, but closer to 170-180p to be sure. Just my thoughts.

[aishah] 04/10/2023 08:16

City AM

Ryanair and Wizz Air numbers rubbish fears of travel slowdown

Ryanair and Wizz Air reported strong passenger growth over September, despite fears in the industry of a slowdown in demand following this years’ summer bonanza.

Ryanair saw passenger numbers rise 9 per cent year-on-year to 17.4m, representing a slight dip on Augusts’ record 18.4m.

Wizz Air meanwhile pipped its rival with a 21 per cent year-on-year jump to just under 5.5m passengers, falling from just over 6m in August – typically the busiest month of the year.

Both low-cost carriers maintained strong load factor – the proportion of available seats filled by passengers – at 94 and 92 per cent respectively.

[adamb1978] 04/10/2023 08:15

Hopefully it bounces over the next few days. Would then appear to be an upwards slopping support line joining the early August low, early Sept dip and then current

[cyberbub] 03/10/2023 16:57

Hmm there goes that theory :-(

[reidy66] 01/10/2023 14:51

Was around 102p

[cyberbub] 01/10/2023 13:49

What do your charts say is/was the gap price?

[reidy66] 30/9/2023 13:38

As I explained on 14th Sept this may return downwards to fill the gap which it has done .Hopefully now it can continue its upward journey .Pj

[adamb1978] 26/9/2023 15:54

Yes, but a c.20% rise in a month or two will cause some to sell. The multiple here looks very low and we know that current trading is decent, so just need some patience I feel

[cyberbub] 26/9/2023 15:23

Really annoying here, I'm still holding.

[aishah] 21/9/2023 14:51

SSPG going great - from Langton Capital:

SSP GROUP – FULL YEAR UPDATE:
Trading:
The company reports that ‘strong underlying trading momentum is expected to continue through to the end of the financial year.’ It says this leaves ‘SSP well-positioned to deliver results at the upper end of the ranges previously indicated for both revenue and EBITDA (underlying pre-IFRS 16).’

SSP says ‘revenue for the last 16 weeks of the year (from 12 June to 30 September) is expected to be at c.116% of 2019 levels, on a constant currency basis.’ It says ‘this represents an underlying improvement in trading since our statement on 21 June (covering the 10-week period from 1 April to 11 June), where trading was at 112% of 2019 levels on a constant currency basis.’

SSP says ‘our revenue performance is being driven by the continued recovery in passenger numbers, particularly in the air sector, as well as our stronger customer offer and digital proposition. In addition, revenues have benefitted from price increases and further net contract gains.’

Regional performance:
The company says North America is at 127% of 2019 and says ‘in Continental Europe, revenues are expected to be at c.115% of 2019 levels.’ The Rest of the World is at 132%. And ‘in the UK and Ireland, sales are expected to strengthen to c.100%, reflecting both the improving performance and the higher mix of the air channel, despite the rail sector continuing to be impacted by ongoing industrial action….’;

OTB trades at a very attractive valuation imo. 12m rolling fcst - p/e 8.1; peg 0.3; eps growth 30%. Holidays aren't being compromised at all. Winter and next Summer bookings are strong - also see Easyjet and JET2 updates

[undervaluedassets] 21/9/2023 08:54

I concur with Edmund Jackson, but I hold all 3 so I would concur, wouldn't I? I bought them for the reasons that he outlines.

All 3 have performed pretty indifferently as shares lately but very well as businesses.

Mr market is for the moment not interested.

But when Mr. Market is not interested that is the time to buy of course.