Northern Foods Share Discussion Threads

[wllmherk] 16/5/2017 16:54

He won't MrP, of that I'm sure :)

wllm

[mrphil] 16/5/2017 16:53

I'm guessing they would have to pay a fair price or there would be total uproar. Best to just make sure the clown doesn't get anywhere near Westminster!

EDIT: I hold NG., SSE & UU. and they are among my best performers and highest value!

[wllmherk] 16/5/2017 16:49

Can I ask gents, what happens if one of our stocks gets nationalised, I hold both SSE and CNA and comrade Corbyn targets both in their manifesto, could the Gov legally just wipe out investors or would they need to pay shareholders top dollar for their shares ?
Apologies if a daft question but I haven't held shares in a company that was nationalised,

wllm

[skinny] 16/5/2017 16:45

Thanks Aleman.

"Jeremy Corbyn is taking the Labour Party in this election to a very different place - away from the recent consensus that the UK should be moving to lower borrowing, and lower taxation.

The manifesto spells out a vision, for good or for ill, of more spending, more tax, and more borrowing.

And in a big way."

No change there then.

[mrphil] 16/5/2017 16:33

I take it that's why UU. has been dropping this week?

[aleman] 16/5/2017 15:56

Skinny - the £250bn for nationalisations is separate from the £48bn tax and spend pledge. I think the presumption is that the debt interest cost will be less than the profit they make - but how long will they make a profit in government ownership with capped bills!?

[mrphil] 16/5/2017 14:20

Nice little LLOY divi arrived in my HL account today, that should help the week's figures a bit!

[mrphil] 16/5/2017 14:18

Skinny, I think Corbyn is trying to get a part in George Orwell's classic novel!

[mrphil] 16/5/2017 14:14

I'm guessing the only risk is the court sanctioned scheme of arrangement next week?

[mrphil] 16/5/2017 14:08

Thanks che7win, just did a test trade on SEPU and could get them at 18.84p so is there a catch somewhere?

[aleman] 16/5/2017 13:10

If the news is right, Corbyn just blew away
any hopes of election by promising to borrow as much as it takes to renationalise everything, reportedly at a cost of about £250bn.

[aleman] 16/5/2017 12:59

The markey is crazy at times. THey don't happen often but there are nailed-on money makers at times if you keep your eyes peeled for technical situations. (Actually I think it was Sanderson Group (stage lighting/cameras) rather than Sanderson Electronics. Anyway, I don;t think I ever shelled out money. It was bought and sold within the old two week trading accounts.)

[che7win] 16/5/2017 12:14

Aleman,
the market is bizarre at times. When OSB had an accelerated bookbuild, the stock dropped 30p the next day as the deal concluded at a discount to the price.

I bought loads because ALD had a similar situation in the same sector and didn't drop from the bookbuild price.

The market ignored that OSB was going exdividend that week, I calculated it wouldn't fall below the book build price and it didn't - so the dividend minimized any risk.

With SEPU, its possible now to buy on T20 and get the proceeds before it become due - I find that amazing.

[aleman] 16/5/2017 11:45

I can beat that. I made about 10%+ on Sanderson Electronics in a week. What's special about that? It went something like this: buy 130p, bid at 180p two days later, shares up to 175p, Black Monday, shares drop to 150p, panic, sell. If I remember rightly, the takeover went through at 180p. The joys of investing - sometimes even profits hurt!

Just had £750 worth of Wembley tickets drop through the letter box. Didn't even have to sign. I'm glad they've come!

[che7win] 16/5/2017 11:31

MRPHIL,
how about near 5% return for hopefully holding a stock 3 weeks?

SEPU latest timetable released, 20p takeover, can buy under 19p right now. Do your own research, I don't see much risk after recent news.

[mrphil] 16/5/2017 11:28

Shadowside, I remember RGD well and could do with a few more of them. I nearly bet the house on them but still bought a fair few at 2.2p outside of the SIPP as that was long before I set that up. I did still get a few in the SIPP later and doubled my money on those.

One of my other little gems has been AMS originally bought at 10.8p back in 2006 although I only still hold about 10% of my original holding but they are currently worth three times more than I originally paid for the lot!

Aleman, can't you just sit closer?! ;-)

[aleman] 16/5/2017 10:56

Hyden - I did the CRT waddle to the tip about 18 months ago. As a football fan, big flat screens have become a necessity. Play is mostly covered in panoramic view these days. They look like ants on older, smaller tellies and you can hadly see where the ball is!

[shadowside] 16/5/2017 10:49

A bit of history. Cut and pasted from Nov 2008!

Shadowside, would appreciate your take on RGD once you have had a good look at them, but on the face of it the price seems really crazy. This bit was my main concern from the recent statement:-

"Sales of the group continue to be skewed towards the last quarter and the critical Christmas trading period. It is still too early to anticipate the outcome of trading in this period. However, given the circumstances and trading conditions outlined above and in the absence of any significant improvement in market conditions, the Board anticipates that the results for the year ended 31 December 2008 are likely to be circa £1m lower than current market expectations."

Having said that, it still doesn't sound like the end of the world (or in this case, RGD)! MrP

[aleman] 16/5/2017 10:47

CPI 2.7%. RPI 3.5%.





CPI rose from 100.2 in April 2016 to 100.6 in July. The fall in the £ is still working its way through prices this year so the current 102.9 could be at 103.5-104.5 in 3 months. That would see CPI rise to 2.9% - 3.9%. RPI could similarly get to 3.5% - 4.5% or more so my warnings from last summer about could turn out to quite close, although a few months out on timing. My worries at the time, were about a blowout in bond yields from very low levels causing market dusruption. So far, however, bonds are taking it quite well - partly becasue they as they blew out a bit on Trumps election in an atmosphere of optimism. What about workers wages keeping up? Will we see industrial action rise? I get the feeling markets don't seem overly bothered so far but it should be having effects in fund flows for things like pensions. What will the longer consequences be?

The funny thing now is that credit growth is easing and the £ is drifting up slowly. I could see inflation falling below target again next spring and summer if that carries on. A slowdown or recession, driven by slower credit and a stronger £, could ggravate that and push CPI towards zero. Better rated bonds/gilts might be the place to be, even if their yields don't look uch to shout about now. This is only early speculation on my part.

[shadowside] 16/5/2017 10:35

Hyden,

Doubling your SIPP since 2012 sounds pretty good and must be well ahead of FTSE taking into account dividend reinvestment. I took over my wife's SIPP about the same time and that is only up about 80%........although she seems reasonably content with that. Pot which started in 2008 looks much better and is up over 300% and annnual increase of 16%/yr but much of the percentage success came in the early years when undervalued shares were much easier to come by. Best of all was probably RGD courtesy of the guys on here.

[deanforester] 16/5/2017 10:35

Yes, Hyden. I try not to trade without good cause, limited mostly to trimming back shares which go overweight (1.5 times the median holding value) and reinvesting accumulated dividends and cash into underweight shares with the highest yield. Every now and then a share disappears due to take over, or worse, and has to be replaced. New shares are always added at about median holding value. Some also appear, like INDV and S32, spun out of RB. and BLT respectively. Those were both very low value holdings and I have added to them to make them about half median value, to be more saleable if I wish to get out. INDV stopped paying dividends but has grown well. S32 had a shaky start but has started paying dividends and has also grown well. Depending on progress I may dump INDV and add to S32.

DF

[mrphil] 16/5/2017 10:31

Hyden, I remember when we changed from our old wide screen it would have almost been easier to fit wheels to it and drive it to the tip! Realised the other day that our "new" flat screen is now 10 years old and I'm tempted to upgrade mainly for the convenience with catch up and all that stuff. It's hassle having to plug the laptop into the tv to be able to see anything on iPlayer!

On returns, just checked overall gains/losses each year for the SIPP which I started in mid 2010

2010 +2.72% (6 months)
2011 -15.58%
2012 +14.98%
2013 +20.57%
2014 +4.94%
2015 +3.19%
2016 +15.97%

I'm still contributing monthly all the time I carry on working, so the overall value is increasing more than these percentages. If I can average +5% over the next few years plus contributions, I'll be happy.

[hyden] 16/5/2017 10:16

That sounds very impressive DeanForester, alas I have not been investing as long as you - my ISA since 2008 (ish) and my SIPP since April 2012. I have more than doubled the value of the SIPP over the past 5 years (investment return, excluding contributions) which I am very pleased with but I think I would be over the moon with a long term compound average as high as yours. :-) It just shows the power of long term investing and it is a great lesson for all young people setting out. Invest early and you can transform your life. :-)