Northern Foods Share Discussion Threads

[freddie ferret] 13/5/2017 16:36

Seems some of Trumps pump priming is starting to bear fruit in the form of the last couple of months US consumer expenditure figures which seem to show a rising trend. If Trump continues on the path of capital expenditure and infrastructure spending both of which produce a big multiplier effect we are likely to see the US roar back strongly IMHO.
A recent programme on BBC R4 highlighted the effect that Trumps promoting coal mining and use has had on coal transport by water, seems one inland cargo operator has seen the best quarter for eight years.
Early days however it all looks promissing

[blueliner] 13/5/2017 10:52

+0.32% yesterday, [FTSE250 -0.17%]

Highest value risers : SDV +2.8%, GSK +2.3%.
Worst value fallers : IGR -1.3%, ALT -5.6%.

+1.76% on the week, Folio YTD +7.8%.

My dividend receipts after some years of deliberate growth have now smoothed out, reading this board was a big kicker. Now, where one stock ie GVC returns to the dividend lists after a 1 year holiday, cancels out another stock ie IRV which is forced to suspend theirs. I am also minded of the new tax which is offputting as only so much can be ISA'd.

Good heavy shower yesterday teatime.

Quiz 4/7

[hyden] 12/5/2017 18:51

I am +9.49% YTD but the important measure for me is the dividend progression which stands at +14.21% Jan-May Vs the same period last year. Whilst the increase in the dividend income may sound impressive at first glance, it is actually down to a combination of additional contributions, reinvestment of dividends (both of which will cease in the future) and dividend increases.

[deanforester] 12/5/2017 18:15

Hmmm. I'm up +0.749% on the day today (FTSE100 +0.657% - a new high), up +1.24% on the wek (FTSE100 +1.89%) and up 6.51% YTD (FTSE100 +4.10% and HIX +2.30%).

Best rises: AZN +9.03%, BT.A +2.72% and VOD +2.33%.

Worst falls: PSON -1.55%, LLOY -1.38% and INDV -1.33%).

My all-time high came on Wednesday, only by a few pounds. Yesterday's XD falls have pulled me down, despite the help from AZN today and ADM's dividend.

+12°C first thing, about +16°C later. Several showers during the day.

I'm glad that I got my gardening done earlier in the week. Enjoy the weekend.

DF

[aleman] 12/5/2017 17:18

Hyden - We have a similar outlook. I've been where you are and I'm now only a bit ahead of you. We can discuss it a bit later as I'm busy just now. Remind me if I forget.

+0.4% today. YTD -5.9%.

17.3C. Grey and dry. Warm enough without the wind. I do hope the rain does not manage to miss us. I wish everyone some rain - but just overnight so they can have a good weekend.

[skinny] 12/5/2017 17:11

My SIPP finished up 0.28%, +1.90% on the week and is +8.50% YTD.

Off to see la cage aux folles this evening.

Enjoy your weekend.

[freddie ferret] 12/5/2017 15:49

I note the chart of DEB

[mrphil] 12/5/2017 15:44

SIPP +0.95% on the week and now +3.67% YTD with the managed funds still outperforming the individual shares. The pot edged back slightly but is still +7.11% YTD and the Virgin ISA managed +1.10% on the week and is now +6.62% YTD so I may need to rethink whether to open a new one this year or pay into that one again.

That's me done for the week, enjoy your weekends.

[mrphil] 12/5/2017 15:39

If only we came with a label showing our "end date" it would make all this long term forecasting so much easier!

I shall be reporting an hour earlier as I need to get away.

[hyden] 12/5/2017 15:23

Thanks Aleman, as I say, I like this thread and I like the links to other material even though I might disagree with some of it on occasion. Where I agree with you wholeheartedly though, is the ability to maintain income.

I can afford a reasonable degree of capital volatility in the shorter term provided the dividend income covers my spending needs. I am almost in that position now and need just a couple more years of dividend growth.

The other strategy that occupies my thoughts is what amount should be set aside as a capital buffer to be used to supplement one's income in the years when dividends are cut. Too much and your investment returns will suffer but not enough and you may be forced to sell into a weak market. This can make a big difference over the longer term and I would be interested on others' thoughts on this matter?

I am thinking of allowing for a 40% fall in dividends, recoverable over 3, maybe 4 years (say 1.5 years income in total) and then double it in case the fall occurs soon after retirement. so, I estimate a cautious buffer would be 3 years income which could be invested in 1 year or 2 year bonds. This would be drawn down in the lean years and topped up in the good years. And, of course, I will need to allow for inflation so this amount will need to grow over time, possibly by more than interest received on the bonds in the short term. It requires a lot of thought this investing lark. :-)

[freddie ferret] 12/5/2017 14:59

This is rather interesting.

[aleman] 12/5/2017 13:46

Another US retailer miss




BBC and Met office both show rain here at mid-day on historical satellite radar - both wrong! Fortunately, more is forecasted.

[mrphil] 12/5/2017 11:58

Skinny - opportunity for another top up if I wasn't so heavy on them then!

Rain seems to have stopped and the sun is trying to break through. Not sure if it will be dry enough for lunch outdoors though!

[skinny] 12/5/2017 11:44

MrP - Berenberg have reiterated their 'sell TP 55p' on LLOY, but then that's nothing new!

[deanforester] 12/5/2017 11:37

3/7 for me this week. None of my guesses paid off.

Quite a lot of rain last night and we had another shower this morning, just before I was about to walk tor the Health Centre for my appointment with teh Head Practice Nurse. I took the car instead.

Big rise in AZN this morning with a sympathetic rise from GSK. I believe in staying fully invested. As long as the dividend income holds up, the capital can do what it likes, and will.

DF

[aleman] 12/5/2017 11:31

I very much look forward to you both joining me as full-time investors in the near future! (if MrP can tear himself away from his boat)


Thanks for pointing that out, Hyden. I had noticed that myself and might not have posted the link on another day. Maybe the kids distracted me half way through and I forgot it had that duff beginning. I do post a lot of stuff (and get distracted a lot!). Much gets disregarded but some will occasionally be garbage but might still contain some useful background information, so I might post with a cautionary note. I hope that I provide information and data that is not always covered in the main media. They have a really poor record on calling turning points until they are fairly obvious. They are now asking more questions about a slowdown after prelimary US and UK Q1 GDP were a bit slower than expected but what about before that? My main disagreement is that I can't see US and UK economies muddling through when lending is being cut as deliquencies and defaults rise and credit scores fall. (As far as I can see, similar is happening in Canada, China, India and Australia.)


I generally agree with the idea about riding out a recession but I have previously switched to much more defensives investments in the run-up, all the while trying to maintain income, and have done the same this time. I do have some cash at the moment but am getting increasingly tempted to buy a couple of income stocks where yields have improved after recent falls.

[mrphil] 12/5/2017 11:23

Is LLOY trying to wind us up after hearing us talk about it?! ;-)

[mrphil] 12/5/2017 11:20

Pretty much similar here Hyden, good luck with your two year target, hope it works out for you! Succession planning is likely to be my biggest hurdle to bowing out!

[hyden] 12/5/2017 11:11

For what it's worth, I think 5% is a very realistic target MrP and I wish you every success in meeting that. I am hoping two more years of similar growth will allow me to bow out, but of course I'll never really retire, I'll just have more time to focus on investing. :-)

[mrphil] 12/5/2017 10:19

Thanks for that Hyden. Totally agree regarding staying invested, so tempting to sell up when we hear all this doom and gloom but at the end of the day nobody really knows how the markets are going to react, they're certainly not always rational! I'm down to a much shorter timescale now before wanting to start making use of the SIPP funds but I'm aiming to beat the timescale I have set myself. If I can average 5% gains per year from now, I'll knock 2 years off my target date.

[hyden] 12/5/2017 10:14

The article does mention the dependency on the UK consumer and for me this is a key risk facing the UK-focussed group, especially with the prospect of a hard Brexit increasing the risk of a UK downturn, but we should not forget that Lloyds is more than just a retail bank, being active in retail, commercial, insurance, and long term savings and investments markets.

What I feel I should know, but don't, is the split in terms of revenue and profit between each of these markets and it is a shame the author didn't highlight this. For example " .. we believe the UK retail division, which accounts for XX% of profits is at significant risk of a UK consumer downturn following a hard Brexit ..." That would have been really helpful to readers.

[hyden] 12/5/2017 09:49

You're welcome MrPhil. I think there's a natural tendency in all of us to find reason to discredit articles we do not agree with and to promote articles which are in line with our view of the world. Take Skinny's link for example. I like the headline so I carry on reading and then I see the link to an article on market timing so I read that which supports my belief that we should not try to time the market.

A 0.79% per year adverse variance against market performance compounds to, say more than 30%, over an investing lifetime (35 years?). That is a significant hit by any measure so I tell myself I should stay invested and not try to time the next bear market.

It is perhaps wise to challenge ones own beliefs occasionally but we should not rely on the internet for that as there is too much fake news. I think this board is excellent as it provides lively debate, although I admit I am more of a lurker than a poster.

With hindsight it would have been better to have read the whole of Aleman's article before posting but since I disagreed with the headline, I was just looking for reason to discredit the article. Alas it was altogether too easy and I stand by my view that the journalist needs to carry out at least a modicum of research in order to get his facts right.

[mrphil] 12/5/2017 09:02

Morning All.

Back to a more normal 3/7 for me this week.

Just done this months Markit CIPS survey. Interesting that the monthly order book looks slow compared to last month, but April's was distorted by one large project so the underlying trend shows an improvement as we would expect once the Easter period is out of the way.

Hyden, thanks for your comments on the LLOY article, thought it was just me!

Much needed rain since late yesterday, all now feeling much fresher and the plants are happier. Just in time for my weekend away!