Northern Foods Share Discussion Threads

[mrphil] 12/5/2017 11:58

Skinny - opportunity for another top up if I wasn't so heavy on them then!

Rain seems to have stopped and the sun is trying to break through. Not sure if it will be dry enough for lunch outdoors though!

[skinny] 12/5/2017 11:44

MrP - Berenberg have reiterated their 'sell TP 55p' on LLOY, but then that's nothing new!

[deanforester] 12/5/2017 11:37

3/7 for me this week. None of my guesses paid off.

Quite a lot of rain last night and we had another shower this morning, just before I was about to walk tor the Health Centre for my appointment with teh Head Practice Nurse. I took the car instead.

Big rise in AZN this morning with a sympathetic rise from GSK. I believe in staying fully invested. As long as the dividend income holds up, the capital can do what it likes, and will.

DF

[aleman] 12/5/2017 11:31

I very much look forward to you both joining me as full-time investors in the near future! (if MrP can tear himself away from his boat)


Thanks for pointing that out, Hyden. I had noticed that myself and might not have posted the link on another day. Maybe the kids distracted me half way through and I forgot it had that duff beginning. I do post a lot of stuff (and get distracted a lot!). Much gets disregarded but some will occasionally be garbage but might still contain some useful background information, so I might post with a cautionary note. I hope that I provide information and data that is not always covered in the main media. They have a really poor record on calling turning points until they are fairly obvious. They are now asking more questions about a slowdown after prelimary US and UK Q1 GDP were a bit slower than expected but what about before that? My main disagreement is that I can't see US and UK economies muddling through when lending is being cut as deliquencies and defaults rise and credit scores fall. (As far as I can see, similar is happening in Canada, China, India and Australia.)


I generally agree with the idea about riding out a recession but I have previously switched to much more defensives investments in the run-up, all the while trying to maintain income, and have done the same this time. I do have some cash at the moment but am getting increasingly tempted to buy a couple of income stocks where yields have improved after recent falls.

[mrphil] 12/5/2017 11:23

Is LLOY trying to wind us up after hearing us talk about it?! ;-)

[mrphil] 12/5/2017 11:20

Pretty much similar here Hyden, good luck with your two year target, hope it works out for you! Succession planning is likely to be my biggest hurdle to bowing out!

[hyden] 12/5/2017 11:11

For what it's worth, I think 5% is a very realistic target MrP and I wish you every success in meeting that. I am hoping two more years of similar growth will allow me to bow out, but of course I'll never really retire, I'll just have more time to focus on investing. :-)

[mrphil] 12/5/2017 10:19

Thanks for that Hyden. Totally agree regarding staying invested, so tempting to sell up when we hear all this doom and gloom but at the end of the day nobody really knows how the markets are going to react, they're certainly not always rational! I'm down to a much shorter timescale now before wanting to start making use of the SIPP funds but I'm aiming to beat the timescale I have set myself. If I can average 5% gains per year from now, I'll knock 2 years off my target date.

[hyden] 12/5/2017 10:14

The article does mention the dependency on the UK consumer and for me this is a key risk facing the UK-focussed group, especially with the prospect of a hard Brexit increasing the risk of a UK downturn, but we should not forget that Lloyds is more than just a retail bank, being active in retail, commercial, insurance, and long term savings and investments markets.

What I feel I should know, but don't, is the split in terms of revenue and profit between each of these markets and it is a shame the author didn't highlight this. For example " .. we believe the UK retail division, which accounts for XX% of profits is at significant risk of a UK consumer downturn following a hard Brexit ..." That would have been really helpful to readers.

[hyden] 12/5/2017 09:49

You're welcome MrPhil. I think there's a natural tendency in all of us to find reason to discredit articles we do not agree with and to promote articles which are in line with our view of the world. Take Skinny's link for example. I like the headline so I carry on reading and then I see the link to an article on market timing so I read that which supports my belief that we should not try to time the market.

A 0.79% per year adverse variance against market performance compounds to, say more than 30%, over an investing lifetime (35 years?). That is a significant hit by any measure so I tell myself I should stay invested and not try to time the next bear market.

It is perhaps wise to challenge ones own beliefs occasionally but we should not rely on the internet for that as there is too much fake news. I think this board is excellent as it provides lively debate, although I admit I am more of a lurker than a poster.

With hindsight it would have been better to have read the whole of Aleman's article before posting but since I disagreed with the headline, I was just looking for reason to discredit the article. Alas it was altogether too easy and I stand by my view that the journalist needs to carry out at least a modicum of research in order to get his facts right.

[mrphil] 12/5/2017 09:02

Morning All.

Back to a more normal 3/7 for me this week.

Just done this months Markit CIPS survey. Interesting that the monthly order book looks slow compared to last month, but April's was distorted by one large project so the underlying trend shows an improvement as we would expect once the Easter period is out of the way.

Hyden, thanks for your comments on the LLOY article, thought it was just me!

Much needed rain since late yesterday, all now feeling much fresher and the plants are happier. Just in time for my weekend away!

[hyden] 11/5/2017 19:35

Aleman, the ValueWalk article has to be amongst the worst journalism that I have read. I never got past the first two sentences - there are at least two fundamental errors: "Lloyds Banking Group, formerly known as Lloyds of London during its heights as an elite global insurance giant, has fallen on relatively less jubilant times, as its long-term shareholders will attest. In 1999, when the stock was peaking at 976 British pounds per share".

Utter rubbish as far as I am concerned and author Mark Melin should feel ashamed, if he has any sense of decency that is!

[skinny] 11/5/2017 19:32

My SIPP finished up 0.08%.

A sunny day for the large part and very warm @18°C.

[blueliner] 11/5/2017 19:10

-0.11% for me. [FTSE250 -0.4%]

Worst value fallers : BT.A -4.5%, BRSN -1.7%.

Highest value risers : ASY +7.5%, CLIG +1.9%.

GSK rose above it's xd status as it is prospering from HIK inability to get approval for it's own generic version of Advair.
The only other xd today BP. is not a big hitter in the Folio.

[mrphil] 11/5/2017 18:50

Meeting most of the afternoon, only just got back to the screen which I see hasn't changed much from earlier. SIPP -0.76% PETS, CLLN & BP. and the pot -0.62% AMS, SGC & LLOY

XD's did contribute but not a great day anyway!

Had an email from our bee man to say a hive has appeared in the shed at our woods. I thought he would have been pleased to gain an extra one but actually he wants to evict them to prevent any possible passing on of germs between the hives. Learn something new every day!

[shadowside] 11/5/2017 18:02

Lovely sunny day catching up in garden. First strawberries turning red so should be in production by the weekend.Lots of swifts overhead and a lone house martin checking out the old nests in the eaves. A couple of small butterflies I havn't seen before and didn't recognize. Best guess is an orange tip and a holly blue.

Reasonable 0.5% rise today almost wholely due to 15% rise on TON today taking me to 8.7% YTD.

A few heavy showers in the forecast tomorrow. Hope one lands on the garden!

[deanforester] 11/5/2017 18:02

I'm down -0.954% on the day today (FTSE100 +0.022%).

Worst falls: CLLN -6.8% XD, BT.A -4.50% and ADM -3.2% XD.

Best rises: RDSB +1.22%, BLT +0.82% and DGE +0.79%.

My four XD shares pulled me back today, as they are all contributing heavily to the income. BT.A's comment about not being able to maintain 10% dividend growth next year seems to have upset them.

Curry Club day at Wetherspoon's at lunchtime. There was very fine drizzle in the air.

DF

[aleman] 11/5/2017 17:29

-0.4% for me.

Sunny again. Seen some workmen with quite strong sunburn. 19.1C. A good breeze is building to make it feel cooler now.

[mrphil] 11/5/2017 15:11

Agree on LLOY Skinny, but then I have to as they are now my largest individual holding!

Two xd's hurting me today, BP. & CLLN but my PETS holding has still managed to do almost as badly as BP.

[skinny] 11/5/2017 14:39

Aleman- I am biased (when it comes to LLoy) :-)