Northern Foods Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 15/5/2017 16:53

+0.8% for me. Plenty of blue. HAT up 4%+ for no obvious reason.

Much needed rain all day but warm enough at 17.1C.


Hyden - if your overall yield is only 3.4%, I'd have thought you would be able to lift that with a bit of switching/diversification. That could turn our debate more to stock selection tactics than cash/asset allocation.

[skinny] 15/5/2017 16:53

My SIPP finished up 0.42% - a new high for me.

Wllmherk - I'm not sure when children get cheaper - my eldest is 31, so I think I still have a while to wait!

[wllmherk] 15/5/2017 16:50

I probably have another 10 years to work, likely to retire at 60 with an occupational pension. My Mrs is the same. We both have to wait until 67 to get our old age pension. My overall capital has increased little in the past 10 years or so but, I have been using dividends and profits to pay down debt. At the same time funding University for my daughter and college for my son, this hasn't been easy as the kids get more expensive as they get older. However, if all goes to plan I hope to have cleared my mortgage this year, then we will be completely debt free, at least that's the plan.

wllm


ps-would love to retire early, but, can't afford it, so I do envy those that can :)

[skinny] 15/5/2017 16:39

Hyden - you seem well on your way!

A new closing high for the FTSE @7,454.37.

MrP - where do we invest :-)

[hyden] 15/5/2017 15:39

Interesting MrP, does it offer the same level of grip in wet conditions, I wonder? I would guess so if it is already in use on airport runways. :-)

[mrphil] 15/5/2017 15:16

I would probably have taken the plunge and ceased paid employment by now had it not been for the minor detail I am running my own business with a number of loyal staff!

This looks interesting

[hyden] 15/5/2017 14:43

Thanks Aleman for your detailed reply, it is appreciated. Yes, it is my intention to cease paid employment before entitlement to state pension and other private pension for myself and my good wife kicks in. I will need to rely on my ISA in the short term but this alone is insufficient to generate the income I need so I will draw down on the capital value with the intention that Dividends in the SIPP will be sufficient to replace shares sold in the ISA.

The dividend yield across my portfolio is averaging 3.4% based on Friday's prices and latest broker forecasts and, on a 2 year forecast basis, I predict it will be sufficient to fund my day to day needs, with a small surplus to be set aside for a rainy day.

I am keen to de-risk my plans as much as possible - I started paying into a pension very many years ago at age 18 and the prospect of early retirement is now very close to becoming reality. I have invested a lot of thought as to how best to protect my position. Like you, I am tending towards lower yielding but well covered dividends and in addition I am about 15% in cash but this is largely outside a tax efficient wrapper.

The riskier side of me is arguing that I do not need the cash for another 2 years so why not invest to gain additional returns. There is also the risk of a recession which the more cautious side of me has underlined in Red. A happy medium might be to invest some of the cash, say two years worth of dividends, in which case I will still have c. 15% in 2 years time but an arguably higher income which will provide a bigger rainy day fund. Inflation is also a consideration as I intend to live a very long life. :-)

I've been reading this thread for some years now but, until recently, have only posted on rare occasions. Knowing that you and others have made a long term success of investing and combined with my own investment record over the past 7 years is what is motivating me to make the change. I just need to make sure I am taking the right risk - carefully calculated to give me the best chance of success. :-)

[aleman] 15/5/2017 13:25

More conflicting stats/models:



Cars again

[aleman] 15/5/2017 13:15

Some interesting charts here. Note how, for all the focus on GDP numbers, Net National Disposable Income per Head barely moved between 2005 and 2016.

[aleman] 15/5/2017 12:27

Does that mean NG.are reversing the rights issue of a few years back - when the raised money and increased the dividend at the same time?

We finally got significant rain today. The "May" came out over last week and now it's chilly. As far as cast a clout,we haven't been wearing vests since that cold week in April and heavy coats since maybe early March.


Hyden - I've been reviewing my expenses and income and I have a small deficit. It comes about since I've been switching from more speculative high yield stuff to lower yield stuff that should hold up better or even grow in a recession. I had a yield around 6.5% on a bigger pot at one point but some trading and recent dividend cuts have brought that down to around 4.4%, and I've paid a house deposit and prepaid a significant slice of mortgage since then - and paid a lot of CGT on sales! The 6.5% was in more risky stuff but had a much much big buffer then as my income has close to halved in less than 3 years. My costs have been increasing a little as kids eat and do more.

The small deficit now might seem worrying but I am sat on over 10% cash at the moment and wondering whether to reinvest some or all of that now or wait for better yields in the next year or two, on the assumption that the economy slows and shares fall. The recession/no recession debate we have on here is partly to help me decide what to do with the cash - I usually don't carry any. I didn't into the last recession; I just did a similar porfolio shuffle and shuffled again at the bottom of the recession, producing first a small income reduction and then a very large boost.

I'm probably not quite in the same boat as you as we probably have scope to make some small economies if things go wrong and I could probably fit in some part-time work from the next school year, if needed. If times remain good a little dividend growth should eliminate the deficit anyway, even if I don't reinvest the current cash. A worst case scenario would see us downsize the house, cutting costs and increasing income at the same time. (Reverse of first paragraph.) There's plenty to free up there, not that I want to go there any time soon.

The carrying cash as a buffer or just investing it all to run a slight surplus is an interesting debate in itself. If I was retiring with no other income to come (state pension, other private pensions, spouse's pension, etc.) I think I would be wanting to look for a 30% surplus on income over expenditure or enough cash to fill a similar sized hole that might appear, or combination of the two. That way it would take a be a good sized recession to cause an income deficit - and I'd hope to trade my way to a higher income in the turmoil again if that happened, as per 2008/9.

These are just initial thoughts. Obviously, it will vary from person to person. We all have different incomes and expenses so it is quite hard to generalise. I don't know if this helps you but it might spur some questions that could help us both make assessments.

[mrphil] 15/5/2017 12:12

Skinny. All I would say about Lundy is, don't go just to see the Puffins as there are obviously better places albeit further away. But for a beautiful place to visit, highly recommended!

Thanks re NG., think I'll sit tight and see what happens!

[skinny] 15/5/2017 11:11

Lundy is another of those places that I've been meaning to go for years and not quite made it yet.

MrP there's plenty of discussion on the about the share consolidation etc.

[mrphil] 15/5/2017 10:54

Exactly why I have a bit of a hatred of some of these companies that try and rule us. I can't believe Microsoft will be too upset by this cyber attack.

[shadowside] 15/5/2017 10:49

Raining hard. Yippee!!

[mrphil] 15/5/2017 10:14

I see NG. are proposing a special dividend but am I missing something here?... "It is expected that the value of your remaining National Grid Shares immediately after the consolidation, plus the value of your Special Dividend, will be broadly comparable with the value of your Shareholding immediately before the consolidation."

[mrphil] 15/5/2017 09:09

Morning All.

I can thoroughly recommend a visit to Lundy Island, what a beautiful place. We weren't exactly stepping over loads of puffins but we did see a few by their burrows through the binoculars! And we were spoilt by the weather which really couldn't have been better, with the downpours arriving just before we arrived back at Bideford Quay.

That cyber attack really brings things home doesn't it. I struggled to cope with the reports that doctors had resorted to paper and pens - well whatever next!

[aleman] 13/5/2017 21:54

S&P500 Q2 guidance revisions so far - 61 down, 29 up. Consumer is 11 down and 3 up. Still within the grey area but not really suggesting any pick-up.



At the start of the year, Q2 forecasted earnings were $32.75. Now $31.63 - a rise of $0.88 from Q1 - but still trending down. The Q1 to Q2 rise in 2015 was $1.22 and $2.52 in 2016 so this year's rise looks weaker.

[aleman] 13/5/2017 21:08

Sources, freddie?

Consumer spending flattened off in Q1



Same data



March, April and even May might receive a slight boost from late tax rebate cheques after new anti-fraud legislation slowed things. That might have depressed January and February, making any slight improvement since then unrepresentative of the underlying economy. I'm aware this might have affected corporate numbers in the consumer sector. I think they've still had pretty poor results and many have been reducing optimistic guidance. A later Easter just confuses things further, although most seasonally adjusted data will have attempted to account for that. I suppose we'll just have to wait and see.

[freddie ferret] 13/5/2017 16:36

Seems some of Trumps pump priming is starting to bear fruit in the form of the last couple of months US consumer expenditure figures which seem to show a rising trend. If Trump continues on the path of capital expenditure and infrastructure spending both of which produce a big multiplier effect we are likely to see the US roar back strongly IMHO.
A recent programme on BBC R4 highlighted the effect that Trumps promoting coal mining and use has had on coal transport by water, seems one inland cargo operator has seen the best quarter for eight years.
Early days however it all looks promissing

[blueliner] 13/5/2017 10:52

+0.32% yesterday, [FTSE250 -0.17%]

Highest value risers : SDV +2.8%, GSK +2.3%.
Worst value fallers : IGR -1.3%, ALT -5.6%.

+1.76% on the week, Folio YTD +7.8%.

My dividend receipts after some years of deliberate growth have now smoothed out, reading this board was a big kicker. Now, where one stock ie GVC returns to the dividend lists after a 1 year holiday, cancels out another stock ie IRV which is forced to suspend theirs. I am also minded of the new tax which is offputting as only so much can be ISA'd.

Good heavy shower yesterday teatime.

Quiz 4/7

[hyden] 12/5/2017 18:51

I am +9.49% YTD but the important measure for me is the dividend progression which stands at +14.21% Jan-May Vs the same period last year. Whilst the increase in the dividend income may sound impressive at first glance, it is actually down to a combination of additional contributions, reinvestment of dividends (both of which will cease in the future) and dividend increases.