Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[zac0_4] 20/9/2020 00:15

“New 52 week low here” How about a new 10year low here. “No business is safe in these uncertain timeless” Tell that to Microsoft, Apple, Google, Zoom or any of the other tech companies making hay while the sun shines.

[zac0_4] 20/9/2020 00:08

“Even resumption of one third of the dividend will be huge” not to long term holders it won’t be!

[nickrl] 19/9/2020 18:15

noreply they are exposed in areas subjected to local restrictions so that won't help. However, i'd say that with New Look getting t/o rents away you can see all retailers wanting this arrangement and thats going to make certainty of income difficult to forecast. This is exacerbated by lack of transparency as to what these arrangements are - is there any base rent isn't disclosed the only thing that is clarified is service charges sit outside the arrangement.

Given income could be impaired for some years now will they need a cash raise to provide some breathing room?

As you say guessing the bottom is anyones guess currently!

[noreply1] 19/9/2020 17:17

New 52 week low here. No business is safe in these uncertain times.Might have a dabble in the future but no point trying to guess the bottom or trying to catch a falling knife

[chucko1] 18/9/2020 20:12

It will be tough and we may have to wait a while until we see 75p again, especially with a lower revenue winter than was originally forecast for the pub estate etc. But if the finances are in OK shape, then just wait it out. Even resumption of one third of the dividend will be huge, but I don't think we will see that this year now.

But I want to be holding these when it does restart.

[chucko1] 18/9/2020 17:39

Was that Norges throwing in the towel? 16mn traded today. They stated they were getting out of all sorts of UK things. They had 7.5mn as of yesterday having recently dumped over 1mn. Terrible close - good sign.

[tole] 18/9/2020 16:37

Big print after the close. Is that the seller cleared.

[debeege] 18/9/2020 15:58

The bots would happily take this to 0.1p if they could. Mr 100k on the offer now changed to Mr 20k. Over 6 million volume. The suppression of level 2 hasn't stopped for weeks, no amount of buying has been able to push this up for longer than 30 minutes before the bid gets nuked. How many more shares do they have!? The elastic band is being stretched though. Keeping a keen eye on developments.

[diggybee] 18/9/2020 15:05

Broken down it has

[debeege] 18/9/2020 12:55

Gunnyboy...you are right about the number of either empty or pubs for sale ..NRR isn't immune from this ...go on to the Hawthorne Leisure website and you will see that 1 in 5 of their pubs is currently up for sale

--------

Are you referring to the approximate 16% of NewRiver's pubs that are coming to the end of a lease? Not for sale.

[fenners66] 18/9/2020 09:25

brwo349
17 Sep '20 - 17:37 - 3216 of 3217

"I don't understand that. Why would any property owner agree to a 50% rent reduction?"

I have been sounding this warning for years now.
It's supply and demand.
If there is no demand for the empty properties , even at zero rent , then the property rents for those that are occupied has to come down.

This is exacerbated when the shop next door - see New Look for example - has agreed rent free.

If you are a successful business and Next are - you already know the tricks so you are going to use the threats of exiting leases and saying your competitors have gained an unfair advantage over you.

There is no sentiment its just business.

[brwo349] 17/9/2020 17:56

These stores must be anchor tenants that the shopping centre can't afford to lose.

[brwo349] 17/9/2020 17:37

I don't understand that. Why would any property owner agree to a 50% rent reduction?

[zho] 17/9/2020 15:33

This is from Next's results this morning:

"Based on our negotiations so far we anticipate that, on average, rent in these stores will fall by -50%, saving £9.9m per annum. Eighteen of these lease renewals are linked to store turnover, rather than a fixed rent, meaning that we can be more confident in the store’s longer term future."

[candid investor] 17/9/2020 15:23

Gunnyboy...you are right about the number of either empty or pubs for sale ..NRR isn't immune from this ...go on to the Hawthorne Leisure website and you will see that 1 in 5 of their pubs is currently up for sale...no matter which way you look at this, it isn't a positive sign..

[essentialinvestor] 16/9/2020 17:48

GB, very decent of you, respect.

My concern is the ...at least...phrase used.

There is no sign of the moritorium ending in to 2021.

What I hoped for was some clarity of an end date, had expected another roll over,
but nothing on that front.

[gunnyboy] 16/9/2020 17:45

I am not sure if this will be much of an issue to those the size of NRR. It will have more of an impact on those that owner smaller high street units (such as me:-(

The larger sites will have paid their quarters rents up until the end of this month and will have already agreed with NRR what they are doing for the next quarter. They didn't have that many non payers this qtr.

I already agreed in March to deffer this years rent to be paid off over the remaining term of my tenants leases. They were all very happy with that and to be honest what else could I do? Threaten to kick them out and they carry the business rates and utilities while I find another tenant?

The worry I have is the pubs. They have people living in them so even if NRR want to liquidate them they can't evict them from the living quarters or the commercial aspect. They should see if anyone wants to buy a chunk of them as a going concern rather than individual sales. Almost all the pubs around us have been on the market from well before the pandemic with no buyers. You can't easily develop them and no one wants to run a pub any more.

[speedsgh] 16/9/2020 15:24

Government extends commercial evictions ban until the end of 2020 -



The government has extended its moratorium on commercial tenant evictions until the end of 2020 in a move that will likely further deepen divisions between retailers and landlords.

In a statement this afternoon, the government said it had extended its ban on landlords evicting commercial tenants behind on their rent payments until at least the end of the year, in a bid to protect jobs.

The secretary of state for housing Robert Jenrick said extending the ban until the end of the year would give struggling high street retailers and restaurant chains a chance to “focus on rebuilding their business over the autumn and Christmas period”.

Jenrick, however, said that “where businesses can pay their rent, they should do so” as the measure was only designed to support those “struggling the most during the pandemic”.

[vow] 16/9/2020 14:56

Finally my order went through today at 50p. Seems to bounce off there quit regularly so hoping this is the perceived or technical bottom whichever faith you adhere.

In for growth as not expecting income next year, target 80p.

[gunnyboy] 16/9/2020 11:10

Large chains have been doing this for years. Sports Direct started this by basically blackmailing shopping centres into giving them either free rent or next to free or they will leave.

You need a marquee unit in each retail setting to entice the others in and that marquee can then set the terms. And yes before you say it snobs, Sports Direct and New Look are marque brands in a lot of the country:-)

As the article says though most retailers can not demand these terms however they will be looking at their renewals and it doesn't sit well if the big boys are not paying their rents.

[fenners66] 16/9/2020 10:25

"402 New Look stores will pay rent based on how much sales they rake in
The remaining 68 stores will pay no rent under the deal"

So rent is Zero on 14.4% of their shops

What does that do to property valuations ?

And the shop next door to a New Look paying nothing ?

[theprovosts] 15/9/2020 20:54

Lets assume valuations drop 30% from today, across the £1.2bn portfolio, leaving property value of £840m.

Net debt of £547m just now.

Leaves equity of £293m.

Current market cap of £155m.

[vow] 15/9/2020 20:35

Example of things to come?

New Look wins backing for turnover-linked rents