National Grid Share Discussion Threads

[utyinv] 04/10/2018 13:21

Defensive sold off in the US yesterday as US yields spiralled to
Levels not seen since 2011.

[neddo] 03/10/2018 16:07

some of these board members have to go , they are ornaments and expensive ones ?

[gbh2] 02/10/2018 09:01

Only major growth to date is in their own Salary and Bonuses!

[utyinv] 02/10/2018 08:32

Bottom line ROE 9.5%

Another reason why IMO NG should be concentrating on the US business and not the U.K. business.

If any of you have been watching the investment day presentations to investors held in London on 21st Sept ( Web ) it was all ‘Great’, ‘Rosey’ we have achieved this and that. But the bottom line is what have we got in return?

Over a year ago many reinvested their special dividend to offset the consolidation and based on Company policy to dump the heavily regulated Gas Distn business in preference for lucrative areas of business which will boost growth and returns for investors.

Nearly 18 months on what growth have we seen reflected in the share price?

Many investors have been patient with the CEO based on the promises and confident boasts he and his Board made about future growth and returns to investors.

[gbh2] 26/9/2018 20:36

None of the fund managers get burnt these days, the algorithms are designed for them to control the rise and fall the share price imo.

[utyinv] 26/9/2018 13:57

It seams that the algorithms kick into sell at 12:00 hrs. The reoccurrence is too frequent to be random.

Would love Pettigrew (CEO) to come out with some good news to wrong foot those who may be shorting this stock.

[m100] 25/9/2018 22:08

We've been here with a depressed share price several times in the past, sometimes for years despite ongoing 'stability' in the regulatory regime and an ongoing long term asset replacement and expansion programme. Call it sentiment, blame the current/last CEO, blame the current/last CFO, blame the politicians in power, blame the politicians not in power, blame the staff, blame the monetisation of 'anything' and 'everything' regardless of if it makes any sense or not.

It could be that there might be much more value elsewhere, or the company, after all these years really has totally run out of ways to make more money with less resources. It could be the cost of capital for the next regulatory period has been priced in either fully or partially.

For more value elsewhere as an investment it could be something stagnant where the share actually maintains capital value rather than something that has eroded capital 30% in 15 months, or something short term that has a guaranteed upside of 10% in a matter of months with no dividend in sight for half a decade or more. It could be something else with massive upside long term that the money is pouring into because someone thinks that company is actually going somewhere. It could even be a hidden retreat from the capital markets by 'the big players' into something else and someone is just waiting for the music to stop.

For all the many multitude of scenarios there might conceivably be no 'spare' money for anyone to invest in NG, at least at not the level to move the price where some think it should be.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing and £11+ pre restructuring seems a very long way in the past, and some wish they were far more liquid or in alternative currencies or alternative solid investments that offer genuine real returns, not some sham where the 'healthy dividend' is paid twice a year but is totally swamped by a huge ongoing erosion of capital.

Anyone would think that NG is like a tobacco company where the product is about to be legislated out of business worldwide, or an oil or mining company massively invested in some overseas tinpot regime that is about to collapse, or a pharmaceutical company with a mega-cure product protected by patent and selling very well that is secretly a killer.

Electricity and gas is not going away. It's not going to get significantly cheaper to 'move around' things on the network wear out and need replacing. NG continues to invest in assets that last longer than almost every car and sometime in assets that outlast many humans. If the know-it-alls at OFGEM deem that returns for shareholders will be derisory then the company WILL end up in the hands of some foreign sovereign wealth fund / Teachers pension fund at a knockdown price. Maybe, despite the mythical 'golden share' that IS and was the plan all along.

[coxsmn] 25/9/2018 19:50

ng share price has fallen due to the general low sentiment in the utilities sector at the moment. However, if we look at the fundamentals, ng is on a p/e of a mere 7.56. If we were to value the business on an unambitious p/e of 10 then the share price would be £10.11. So no, £9.50 share price is still very reasonable. When sentiment changes then the share price could rise rapidly, for the moment its a great buying opportunity with excellent dividend.

[utyinv] 25/9/2018 15:29

GBH2

Post 6597 :)

[gbh2] 25/9/2018 13:04

Sounds a heck of a long way off considering current buying interest.

[coxsmn] 25/9/2018 12:30

950 doesn't sound unreasonable.

[gbh2] 25/9/2018 12:06

24 Sep JP Morgan... 950.00 Overweight

I wonder what planet their brokers live on.

[coxsmn] 24/9/2018 19:21

Labours share giveaway

"Many companies offer incentives and discounts to employees who wish to build a shareholding over time.

That is not the same as taking 10% of the company away from its current owners to stick in a fund for the workers and the government's benefit, which seems to be what the shadow chancellor is proposing.

For a start, the workers will not be able to buy and sell the shares - so they won't really "own" them in a traditional sense. They will be eligible to receive dividends on the shares up to a value of £500 per worker per year. The government gets the rest. "

[bountyhunter] 24/9/2018 18:48

Yes Uty the latest 'bribe' to vote labour seems to be free shares for employees resulting in a massive share dilution with subsequent effects on pension schemes and the shareholdings of those who have dared to invest their life savings in the markets!

coxsmn - I don't fancy Vod either for the same reasons.

I'm a bit concerned that the market generally may be getting a bit toppy at the moment and October can be a dangerous month.

[coxsmn] 24/9/2018 18:39

i had a look at Vod but issues for me are dividend cover and sustainability at current level, growth and strong competition including developing countries. Ng. is a better buy imho.

[utyinv] 24/9/2018 17:33

Bounty,

No, not off the hook, but Labour will promise the earth but the delivery might be different from what is perceived.

IMO, and I could be wrong, but what MacDonnell promises he has to deliver to some degree to maintain any credibility to his followers. But as I said earlier, the System Ops element of NG is being separated out by April 2019. Project on time and OFGEM have already transferred the Licence to a separate ring fenced business within NG. This will then make it Very very easy to take System Ops back under Gov control. Also by taking control of System Ops you can keep a tight leash on the industry. However, System Ops only accounts for £90-£70million of NG’s annual £2.5billion profits. However, crazy as it is, the System Ops Business is listed as being valued as £500m of the total market cap of the Company.

So if MacDonnel does get in to power he can spin his message to say he has brought the industry back under Gov control by just taking control of System Ops.

But then who knows, if they do get in to power, they may destroy the economy to the point another election is called to replace them with a Centre leaning Party in quick succession and that new Gov might relax the leash restoring value and recovering the economy.

His (MacDonnell) proposal to force Companies to give 10% of shares to the Employees and have a 1/3 of Company Board Members made up by workers representatives (Union Marxists) is no different to what Lennin did in the 1920’s in Russia.

There are too many anarchists with green eyed monster syndrome (envious people who want something for nothing), that MacDonnel has to keep motivated. What he delivers if in power may be different to what is promised, but if it looks the same then job done as far as he is concerned.

[bountyhunter] 24/9/2018 17:12

What did you make of McD only mentioning Water/RM & Rail in his renationalisation rhetoric today Uty? Are we to take that if Labour did win an election at some point then the Utilities are now off the hook?

[utyinv] 24/9/2018 16:01

JP Morgan Cazenove reiterates TP of £9.50 (Today 24th Sept 2018)

[action] 20/9/2018 08:15

748p will be good entry point b4 exdivi

[gbh2] 19/9/2018 15:44

Looks like this is closing the gap back to 760p.

[aganatra20] 19/9/2018 15:02

My reply was in response to VOD where their divi cover is below 1. Should have clarified that.

[justiceforthemany] 19/9/2018 11:34

60p EPS vs dividend 45p gives cover of 1.33

US operations expected to grow profits well this year due to higher prices and margins.

[utyinv] 19/9/2018 09:00

Divi cover is 1.2 for a secure utility this is the norm.

There is a strong direction into putting capital into the US where they are more amenable to level playing business fields and returns are good.

Also, a lot of expensive staff ( expensive due to protected legacy issues) are leaving under VR. This will leave less future liabilities. More Engineers at the top of their grade are also being offered manager positions taking them out of collective bargaining regimes ( where you negotiate your own pay rise rather than having Unions dictate that for you).

The Company has also worked very closely with the pension Trustees, where the Trustees are limiting future liability by agreeing longevity hedge contracts with third parties.

A lot of Industry Pensions are in real deficit due to the anticipated longer lives we all will ( in general live). Healthy and well managed pension schemes like NG Elect Pension scheme is being clever by tackling the problem of us all living longer head on by hedging contracts which have already been agreed.

It won’t be too long before the NG ESPS will be an independent pension company without the need for NG to be a supporting parent Company.

The future does look good IMO