National Grid Share Discussion Threads

[bountyhunter] 26/7/2018 22:33

I don't agree with your views for reasons I've already explained so I'll leave it at that, other than to say that the NG share price is low at the moment as with other utilities for political reasons already discussed at length on this thread.

[bountyhunter] 26/7/2018 17:14

In the current low interest rate environment the high yielding defensives could hold their own or even rise on any general market downturn as opposed to high PE stocks; and of course if anyone knew for sure when a market downturn was to occur they could make a packet in any case; it's a dangerous game getting out of the market just because you suspect there may be a downturn.

>>So why wouldn't you get out of the market and let it settle?

have you done that?

[bennodean] 26/7/2018 16:08

The point is defensive 'lose' less...but still lose. So why wouldn't you get out of the market and let it settle?

Real world bears no resemblance to text book theory imho

[bountyhunter] 26/7/2018 12:13

but you have to take into account the prevailing interest rates at that time which back in 2007/2008 were much higher than they are now; also it's well known that growth stocks (high PE) generally get hit hardest on a market downturn vs high yielding defensive stocks (low PE)

[bennodean] 26/7/2018 11:53

The notion of defensive stocks is not supported by the 2007 - 2010 period.

When people want out of the market....a shares' pedigree is ignored.

[bountyhunter] 25/7/2018 14:13

if that happens defensive shares like NG will come into their own

[encarter] 25/7/2018 13:39

Brexit will be a great excuse for a market crash.

[bountyhunter] 24/7/2018 17:18

seriously doubt that given the 5.6% yield, high proportion of US interests, defensive qualities and progressive dividend policy

[encarter] 24/7/2018 16:36

These were under 750p a few months ago and that was before ex divi. They could end up below 700p imho.

[coxsmn] 24/7/2018 15:58

New, agreed. I don't worry, i purchased in good value territory.

[careful] 24/7/2018 15:46

would add more on value grounds, underwater here.
..but the political and regulatory risk is worrying.

[newbank] 24/7/2018 15:36

coxsmn,

Maybe you should have waited till today....'if only' and 'hindsight is great', call to mind.

Looks oversold and as Uty has mentioned there is the AGM next Monday which should prove interesting.

[coxsmn] 23/7/2018 12:38

I've added here today, great value.

[utyinv] 21/7/2018 14:16

Week on Monday will be interesting.

AGM in Birmingham where and when I expect a lot of questions relating to performance will be raised and the justification for Directors being awarded Bonuses. Bonuses are supposed to be a reward over and above contracted pay to reward outstanding performance....????

Interesting....

[prewar] 09/7/2018 07:55

Ha ha brilliant, the fan boys will love that. Any response on the £3 a share calculation?

[utyinv] 09/7/2018 07:46

🤔

Many years ago Mr N bought a house on sale in the open market. Mr P and his cohorts were green with envy. Years later through the support of anarchists, they lie to the youth preaching if you support Mr Corbyn we will give you everything you wish for. We will depress the housing market by threats of repossession and when the price is so low we will compulsory purchase the house at the fire sale market price.

BTW it turns out that Mr P doesn’t own a house ( or has such a small share holding in a house ) so he isn’t bothered about a threat of a compulsory purchase.

I doubt anyone other than Mr P on this bb would support the ideology to get rid of Capitalism and to replace it with a Marxist State.

Negative and Green Eyed Monster call to mind when trying to fathom out Mr P’s ideology. Some question why someone with Marxist beliefs would want to parcipate on a bb designed to discuss NG share ownership unless he isn’t really a shareholder but is just being antagonistic. Maybe that’s why many posters refuse to debate.👍8076;

[prewar] 08/7/2018 19:22

Hey Newbank, apologies for the tardy response.

Not sure you're revised analysis makes sense, why would you be multiplying the May 18th share price by 12/11 for a 11 for 12 consolidation. Similarly why wouldn't you take into account the Special Dividend?

I'll try and make it easy for you by making up a little story.....

Mr N and Mr U were sent on a basic financial analysis course by their employer. The course was to be in two parts. They knew each other really well so agreed to meet up before the course started, this was on the 18th May 2017.

They got chatting and discovered they had a lot in common, including they both had 12 shares in a listed utility. The price on that day was £10.76. Their net wealth was £129.12. Instead of going to the course they decided they probably knew it all and so they went to the pub instead. In the pub they were discussing what to do with their shares. It was lively to say the least and they couldn't agree whether to hold or sell, in the end one (Mr N) decided to sell, the other (Mr U) decided to hold. Apart from this minor disagreement their strong friendship continued and they agreed to meet up beforehand for the second part of the course, this was due to be in early July 2018.

They met up as planned, the day was the 6th July so was over a year after the first part of the course, again they thought better of going to the basic financial analysis course and went to the pub again. Mr N said remember that day when we went our separate ways on our investment decision, I wonder how it worked out....

Mr N went first, I sold mine so I've still got the £129.12 in the bank. Mr U went second, I held mine, probably wish I'd sold like you (I blame Corbyn), how much are your shares worth now said Mr N?

Well it's complicated they did this share consolidation thing where they gave 11 shares for each 12 shares you had but as a kind of compensation they gave you 84.375p for each old share. Mr N looked a bit puzzled, did they do all of this on 2nd June, no they did it earlier than that but you got the special divi on that date, so good effort!

Mr N looked even more confused but ploughed on regardless, so let's work out Mr U how much your investment is worth now. Well I've now got 11 shares and yesterday they were £8.61 so that's £94.71 but they've paid me a special divi of £10.13 so my wealth is now £104.84. Mr N looked confused but happy, turns out he'd made the best choice.

How much is my wealth more than yours said Mr N (rather smugly if truth be told), well that's obvious it's £24.28. Oh wow, do you think that's more or less than £3 per share when you consider your 11 shares Mr N said. They both looked confused at each other and said at the very same time "No idea, anyway we've been thinking of this all day, it's closing time now and we still can't work it out, maybe we should have gone on that course after all" with a little chuckle. The barman had heard this last bit, rolled his eyes, "It's about £2.21 per share but who's splitting hairs"

[stewart64] 06/7/2018 21:11

Newbank I agree there is a deep resentment for Corbyn amongst the working majority. Paraphrasing les Miserables it's not rocket science to realise the guy stands for even more Something for nothing and sitting on your bum will get you even more bread.

[newbank] 06/7/2018 20:18

Also May 18 2017 £10.76. £10.76 x 12/11 = £11.73

Whatever date you choose, Uty makes his / her point well. :)

[newbank] 06/7/2018 20:11

I don't care for a debate but if you think a Left Wing Government will be able to borrow at 2% then you are deluded, but you are free to believe what you wish.

If any Labour Government takes office lenders will exit taking fright. Why would any bank lend to any Left Wing anarchist. Trouble is too many around Corbyn believe they are loved by the electorate. You will be surprised how many working class workers despise him and his philosophy. Labour however have a better chance with David Miliband or a centre Labour Government. Even Labour politicians despise Corbyn and MacDonnell. But hey, thats too much politics already.

Taking any private utility back into public ownership that isn't in trouble is comparable to what Russia did. Robbery. It didn't stop there, millions were murdered in the name of Communism.

[prewar] 06/7/2018 19:39

Newbank

Looks like special divi paid 2nd June, all the proper sorting out was done a bit earlier



Ooh yeah that Lloyds thread, it's a cracker that one.

[prewar] 06/7/2018 19:37

Newbank

Didn't answer your other questions.

Sure Brown sold the gold off, guess he sold it at market price but if he'd had his crystal ball then yes he'd have been better off keeping it. Loads of incompetent politicians out there of all colours, how much did the ERM fiasco cost, billions from memory.

Not sure privatisations were the benefit of the wider population, lots of selling off at prices which seemed ridiculously cheap on listing. Last one was Royal Mail during the coalition, how much undervalued was that. Of course that was Vince Cable, wonder if Gidiot signed it off beforehand, you'd expect so.

Re nationalising utilities, makes sense where either there's no competition or it isn't working. I'd nationalise NG, railways, water, bits of BT, mobile phone network infrastructure (not the service itself). Nationalise seems to work in big swathes of Western Europe. Either nationalise or heavily regulate them.

Happy to have a debate on this but if you fancy it let's start with a couple of easy ones:

Cost of govt debt 2% vs Equity Returns (NG 13% as an example) - which is most efficient?
If say NG is heavily regulated how can buyers come in for Gas Distribution and pay 40-50% premium to RAV?

[newbank] 06/7/2018 19:17

Prewar,

Share consolidation was 2nd June 2017 after Consolidation Meeting.

Also, I don't see Uty posting political rhetoric anymore than others on this bb and nothing like the constant political commentary you find on the LLOY bb :)

[prewar] 06/7/2018 18:59

Hey Newbank

Not sure being negative about the SP, think NG doing ok given Ofgem seem to be sharpening their to date very blunt pencil.

Weren't you being a tad negative about Badar selling a few shares and the share price not being £12 fairly recently?

Not sure why you persist in trying to defend something that was clearly incorrect, bizarre, not sure anybody would think any worse of uty or you for dropping a clanger.

Regarding your nifty piece of analysis not that it's relevant to the original 'Over £3 drop within a year' comment, I thought the share consolidation went through pre-end of May 17 so on the 31st you'd have had 11 shares not 12, might be wrong though. Normally takes a few days to sort these things through, like a divi payment being a few weeks after share price going ex-div.

Won't be going the AGM, typically frightful boring affairs, unless some chap asks one of the directors if he's been banging his missus, that was NG wasn't it? A while back IIRC. Tend to speak with IR with any questions, read the accounts and the Ofgem and a few other websites. Not got any new concerns currently.

I agree Hinkley point is pretty important, could be up or downside from here depending on the outcome, similarly RIIO T2, level of returns and incentives.

I'm sure Uty's a nice chap, used to post some interesting stuff but nowadays he posts some dross though doesn't he? Lots of political rhetoric, conspiracy theory nonsense and just stuff that's plain wrong. Recent one was the yanks smashing it down pre-UK close every day, that one seems to have gone awry today.

I'm sure it's frustration and a bit of emotional attachment to the company and thus share price but it's probably confirmation bias, see patterns over a very short term and think it's something other than coincidence, you can see why lots of PI's don't perform as well as the wider market if believing this sort of stuff.