National Grid Share Discussion Threads

[newbank] 29/6/2018 17:44

Also,

Just noticed that Khan Badar, Director of NG in the US has sold 3492 ADR's at $55.22 / ADR

This to me shows a lack of confidence in the Company for which he works for. Especially as the shares should be £12 / share (and a corresponding figure to ADR = $79.2) and as the shares are seen as oversold and undervalued.

The sale doesn't indicate its a sale to cover tax receipts.

At last years AGM there was criticism of a UK director not buying shares in the Company which questions their resolve to meet their prime objective to deliver investor income and capital growth. As one investor at the AGM put it they should be willing to put their house on the shares otherwise it shows the policy adopted is flawed!

[bountyhunter] 29/6/2018 17:24

or making money out of this 'feature' every day!

[newbank] 29/6/2018 17:12

Bounty,

Looks like Uty was right with regard to the yanks pushing this down, only to ramp it up after our close.

Look at the charts, at 17:08 at time of posting the ADR's are $56 based on 5 UK shares = 1 ADR and the official exchange rate today is $1.32 = £1

56/5 = 11.2 / 1.32 = £8.484 and what does adorn state its close at ...£8.384???

Someone is taking the P...!

[bountyhunter] 28/6/2018 19:22

NGG doing quite well across the pond since the London close (again!).

[bountyhunter] 27/6/2018 19:13

#6462

no surprises here then...

[1carus] 26/6/2018 23:06

M100... interesting take on it!

[utyinv] 26/6/2018 16:46

LOL happens every day, just before London closes the Yanks sell off then buy back after London has closed. Would love to see the shorter getting burned just like they did when VW shares went through the roof after a Porchse buying spree leaving short sellers struggling to close their short positions.

Would like to see a similar announcement in order to teach the hedge funds a lesson. If only....

[m100] 24/6/2018 07:31

"The world's first 2GW network of grid-scale batteries and rapid electric vehicle (EV) charging stations is set to be installed in the UK at a cost of £1.6bn"

About the same capital cost for capacity as a CCGT

"The batteries will collectively store enough electricity to supply 235,000 average homes for a day once a full roll-out is complete."

Well they can once they are charged...

But crunching those claims, average home consumption is 4MWhr per annum or 11kWh/day

So the batteries have around 2.5GWh/day capacity (existing pumped storage capacity is around 30GWh)

UK demand midwinter is circa 1TWh per day, and 0.6TWh midsummer weekday

So storage of 0.25% of midwinter demand, 0.4% of midsummer demand

Plus a limit on the number of charge discharge cycles in the low thousands at best

Plus the losses through a double battery conversion to the EV end user

As ever follow the money (in this case additional demand disguised as demand side response)

[strutt12] 23/6/2018 09:28

The world's first 2GW network of grid-scale batteries and rapid electric vehicle (EV) charging stations is set to be installed in the UK at a cost of £1.6bn, as the result of a partnership announced today by the National Grid and Pivot Power.
The £1.6bn project will see 45 new battery sites developed nationwide at electricity sub-stations, forming the world’s biggest network of grid-scale 50MW batteries. The batteries will collectively store enough electricity to supply 235,000 average homes for a day once a full roll-out is complete.

The batteries will power the largest network of rapid EV charging stations in the world, with each station set to have a 20MW connection with the capability to support up to 100 rapid 150KW chargers. The battery sites will also each provide a hub capable of supporting electric bus depots and bases for large transport fleets, with the capability to support 350KW EV chargers in the future.

“We expect the use of electric vehicles to grow rapidly, so this innovative solution will help accelerate adoption by providing a network of rapid charging stations across the country enabling cars to charge quickly, efficiently and as cost-effectively as possible,” the National Grid’s project director for EVs, Graeme Cooper, said. “It will also give the system operator more choice and flexibility for managing the demands in the day to day running of the network, and also help mass EV charging”.

Pivot Power aims to have operational batteries at 10 of the 45 sites, which are all near towns and major roads, within the next 18 months – but information on exactly when a full roll-out will be completed and the exact locations of the sites has not yet been revealed.
A ‘future-proof’ approach

Pivot Power’s strategy relies on connecting its batteries and rapid charging stations directly to the National Grid’s extra-high-voltage transmission system, giving it an advantage over existing batteries and charging stations linked to the lower voltage regional distribution system.

The firm’s chief executive, Matt Allen, said this model would help “future-proof” the UK’s energy system and “accelerate the electric vehicle revolution” as the nation braces for the government’s phasing out of petrol and diesel vehicles by 2040, coupled with the threat of a potential energy crisis.

The announcement also comes amid the ongoing global shift towards battery storage. Indeed, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) has predicted that the global energy storage market will double six times by 2030 as end-user businesses increasingly turn to battery technologies to boost energy resilience.

EV revolution

BNEF has found that EVs will account for more than half of new car sales by 2040, with its most recent analysis finding that “the EV revolution is going to hit the car market even harder and faster” than it anticipated in 2016.

EV sales reached record heights in 2016, with 700,000 sold worldwide – up 716% on 2010 figures – so it’s hardly surprising that top car makers including VW, BMW, Ford and Jaguar Land Rover are all moving to ramp up investment into EV production and battery research and innovation.

However, the BNEF research noted that the pace of the EV revolution could be hindered by far slower investment growth in infrastructure. Similarly, the Department for Transport has identified a lack of charging infrastructure as one of the three biggest barriers to EV adoption in the UK, along with distance travelled per charge and vehicle cost. The newly-announced network aims to help UK motorists overcome these deterrents.

[stewart64] 18/6/2018 15:31

Bought in 1250 shares here just.A toss up between here, Standard Life and BAT. Chickened out of the risky latter two in the end....falling knives.

[daveofdevon] 18/6/2018 12:44

See calendar details above

[haughtonhoney] 18/6/2018 11:26

When is the dividend payment due please?

[newbank] 15/6/2018 12:03

BROKER NOTES

June 2018
HSBC 15/06
Reiterates
Buy
Buy
950.00p

Citigroup 04/06
Reiterates
Buy
Buy
966.00p

[newbank] 15/6/2018 12:01

HSBC reiterates the shares as a buy with a target price of £9.50 issued today 15/06/18

[bountyhunter] 13/6/2018 15:27

outfoxthemarket is cheaper

[ironhorse] 13/6/2018 13:04

Fear the new entrant "Peoples energy". All profits go back to customers. And you never have to change suppliers again because you are on a competitive rate all the time. Only one Tariff. Have a look get a quote see for your self. Only been going 10 months over 10000 customers.

[utyinv] 13/6/2018 12:14

I see separation of SO/TO functions is going to plan and on time. OFGEM have started the ball rolling last month for the official separation by giving notice of the SO license changes and the in house project to separate the two functions due for completion in April 2019 is on-time.

This will remove any critismn that NG is getting unfair advantage. Though the SO system will for the time being be owned by NG it will be completely ringfenced from any of the other businesses like TO.

This may also mitigate the threat of the Marxists who want to Nationalise the Utilities. It is common knowledge that NG has a bigger business in the USA now and that is where investment is focused, so this acts like a Hedge against the Left Wing destroying NG. However, even the U.K. business may be too expensive for Labour to Nationalise if the electorate were stupid enough to vote for them. But, managing the system by Nationalising the SO function may serve the Labour ambition to deliver on their promises. Hopefully, in the event the Labour Party did get into Gov then when the electorate realise that Labour’s promises were based on ideology and Utopia and that the freebies don’t materialise then a second term may look remote.

The SO system brings in £70m-£90m of NG profits, approx 3% of total profits.

[abbotslynn] 11/6/2018 23:58

Safe as houses or as my S Class in a crash

[prewar] 07/6/2018 06:21

Hi newbank I have thought further about your concerns, I think I understand them better now.

I think you perceive a drag on the share price from either or both of nationalisation and tougher regulation of riio businesses from Ofgem? Is that the case?

If so then you want a better deal to compensate you for that risk via an increased regulatory return on equity.

I think it's fair to say that all shareholders present and future will have a slightly different assessment of those particular risks. I've previously stated that I'm long on ng currently and I for one will have a different view on those risks to you.

Therefore I don't think that ofgem will grant you your wish of a risk premium via the return on equity, I may be wrong but let's see.

My view is that risk sits with shareholders, otherwise it will sit with consumers, all consumers subsidising a minority of shareholder returns, doesn't sound quite right that.

Equity holders take on risk in the hope of reward, if you are a shareholder then you can exit your investment at any time. If you're not happy with the risk and others that sit with you then sell up and find a different investment. The market for ng shares is very liquid so I'm sure you'll get a counterparty to take on your risk. If you have held for a few years then you could have sold at £11 or equally £7.50. Similarly you could have bought at those levels but you will have made a conscious or unconscious decision to do so.

Still interested to hear what you think is a fair real plus RPI return for RIIO T2 regime and others too. Supporting benchmarks would be useful too. Guess you need this and other factors to continually make those invest or divest decisions.

[prewar] 06/6/2018 20:51

Got you your first scoop uty - "National Grid getting into bed with the Marxists" - building interconnectors to state owned TSO's in Norway and Denmark.

Norway and Denmark and other countries with nationalised (capital efficient) monopolies are Marxist right? Doesn't matter just print it, the halfwits who read it will swallow it regardless,they lack the mental capacity to think for themselves!

[prewar] 06/6/2018 20:09

Hey uty, looks like there's a job for you coming up, Paul Dacre is quitting, you can carry on your Marxist rants to a wider audience!

[utyinv] 06/6/2018 08:33

Newbank,

Well said, good post but I am afraid any logic is wasted on those that follow Marxist ideology. There are one or two people who post on Advfn threads that are Marxist followers which makes one question if they really are investors. Look at the Lloy thread? Are they working for Momentum?😂

Bounty set up this bb for investors to share comments with those that have a vested interest in their capital that is invested in this company.

I like you have paid hard earned cash to buy a slice of NG which was Privatised in 1990, it was sold (right or wrong), it’s done now and to suggest any form of Nationalisation is usually the thoughts of bitter Marxists who are tainted by the Green Eyed Monster.

[prewar] 06/6/2018 05:49

BTW are there any oiler cartels that you can invest in? Thought that sort of stuff was illegal, maybe pass on your concerns to the relevant authorities.

[prewar] 06/6/2018 05:47

Morning newbank, thanks for the reply.

Sorry, probably being a bit thick but are you saying NG is more risky than the Ftse as a whole?

What level of real equity return should JP accept for RIIO T2? Ofgem are proposing 3-5% plus RPI inflation, pre any incentives.

Maybe you could provide comparators for similar TO/SO businesses in Western Europe, on a real basis. We wouldn't want to be comparing Real with Nominal like that 3% vs 9% earlier.

[newbank] 06/6/2018 01:20

Hi Prewar,

I thought I answered your question earlier?

Yes I believe NG should demand a risk premium as you put it because MacDonnell is not advocating the destruction (sorry Nationalising) of Oilers, Banks or retailers.

As for Monopoly, yes NG is a monopoly, but heavily regulated and one that needs to attract investment to build infrastructure and connect new sources of generation to the demand. Why are Major investors not flocking to invest? Because they have been scared away by lack of returns and the threat of Marxists wishing to take control of their assets.

Oilers and the like are part of Cartels but what is the difference between a tight worked Cartel to that of a Monopoly? There is no difference to the customer except that the Monopoly is open to scrutiny by regulators whilst Oilers aren't. Oilers are not being threatened by Nationalisation. That's the hypocrisy voiced by MacDonnell.

BTW, Some Oil Co's were once Nationalised and then Privatised under Mrs Thatcher, but there is no mention of Oil Companies being robbed of their assets in a call for Nationalisation.

So yes, IMO NG should be allowed to charge a premium from its customers because hard earned investments are under threat by Labour's intention to destroy a great British success story by rule of Corbyn et al. I worked for the Nationalised Industry, like others on this bb many years ago. I know what a disaster it was, waste, inefficiency, Union Militants demanding and dictating and we do not want to go back to those days. Bring back Centre Left politics within the Labour Party and then Labour won't be seen as a threat to business and success etc.