Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[mhw28865] 03/1/2010 18:15

Marstons has had a great christmas period well up on 12 months ago. on top of that a couple of the new builds have had some staggering results nearly 50% over expectation,

[jaws6] 03/1/2010 16:28

Been tiped in mail on sunday for year tip .

[zcaprd7] 24/12/2009 08:51

Thanks...Do you think we can challenge the resistance level...

[5dally] 22/12/2009 09:57

Final x-div (3.7p) 16- Dec- 2009

Payment date 02- Feb- 2010

[zcaprd7] 22/12/2009 09:51

Anyone know when the divi dets paid?

[timbo003] 19/12/2009 18:18

milacs

It's worth looking at director dealings over the last 6 months, lots of director buying at MARS, but substantial director selling at JDW, do we know their companies better than they do? probably not.

[milacs] 19/12/2009 18:02

timbo003

You are correct, the graph comparison on M.....y AM did not take the rights offerings into consideration.

If one does then the share price of JDW has increased by 42%, GNK by 25% and MARS by only 5% over the year.

JDW has increased by 160% from it's five year low point, GNK by 75% and MARS by 50%.

JDW has fallen by 43% from it's five year high, and GKN and MARS by 75%.

Clearly JDW has by far the better record, followed by GKN.

Now,and more to the point what is going to happen in the future will the lines converge on the graph if so MARS will be the one to buy.?

M

[timbo003] 19/12/2009 10:22

milacs

Don't forget about the rights issues in the last 12 months which have obviously effected the charts and the lack of (chart) progress for Green King and Marstons.

Marstons had a massive, highly discounted rights issue to fund debt repayment and acquisitions/expansion: 11 new shares (issued at 59p) for every 10 old ones.

Green King had a slightly more modest rights issue, at a slightly smaller discount, to fund debt repayment and acquisitions/expansion: 3 new shares (issued at 270p) for every 5 old ones.

Wetherspoons have not had rights issue and probably won't have one, but they are funding debt repayment and expansion by suspension of the dividend.

The prospective divi for Marstons and Green King is circa 6% pa and unless we have financial amegeddon, the divis are likely to be maintained and even start to grow.

I sold Wetherspoons at around 460p to buy into Green King and Marstons a few months ago (post rights issues), the share prices of all three have not really changed much since then, but I am now being paid to wait (with dividends from MARS and GNK) whereas if I had held JDW, I would have to forgo my pocket money until the divi is restored.

[milacs] 18/12/2009 16:47

I reviewed comparison charts of MARS, JDW and GNK over the past year.

I found that at the beginning of May all three were up approx 50%.

Now JDW remains up 45% GNK is down 5% whilst MARS is down 45%.

Question- Which is now the best buy and why.

Clearly if the values converge then MARS is the best buy.

M

[milacs] 16/12/2009 14:16

Had a quick look at the last couple of editions of the IC magazine.

In the first one they had Marstons as a sell and in the following Greene King as a buy.

So there's the answer to the dilemma.

I bought Marstons.

M

[5dally] 16/12/2009 14:15

PUB results this morning have not helped IMO

[richardbroughton] 16/12/2009 13:53

Div is only just over 50% of fall, 2.6 p on top!

[mesquida] 16/12/2009 12:48

Yes, 3.6p of the fall is simply the adjustment for the dividend.

[sc8tt26] 16/12/2009 10:31

Think it went ex-div today.

[diku] 16/12/2009 10:30

What is going on here?..

[zcaprd7] 08/12/2009 09:08

Tipped in the London Standard last week as well:

[evox] 04/12/2009 17:27

CHRISTMAS party cutbacks are proving to be a festive treat for MARSTON'S as the nation's workers have their do down the local.
Bookings across the 2,200 pubs owned by the group are up by more than ten per cent this year.
Chief executive Ralph Findlay said: "People are having to pay for their own Christmas celebrations or organise their own parties and they are looking for better value places to go to."
Food sales account for nearly 40 per cent of all revenue at Marston's Inn and Taverns arm. Profits for the firm, which has its headquarters in Wolverhampton, crashed 72 per cent to £21.4million in the year to October following a host of property charges.
But Mr Findlay said sales were up over the past month - led by its own cask ales such as Pedigree and Ringwood Old Thumper
Read more:

[evox] 04/12/2009 17:19

Marston's boss defends rights issue despite investor anger

[diku] 03/12/2009 15:07

I would assume the interim divi will probably be around 1.80p..Total 5.5p..

[stevefoster] 03/12/2009 14:25

zcaprd7,

No, 7.14 is *not* the rebased figure. The interim dividend hasn't been cut yet (it will be next time).

From the results RNS: "Following the rights issue the Board has rebased the final dividend for 2009 and also expects to rebase the interim dividend in 2010."

Applying the same cut to the interim dividend suggests that it will be around 2.1p next time, putting the annual dividend at 5.8p from 2010, with a yield of ~6.1% (still good, but not as juicy as you think).

[zcaprd7] 03/12/2009 12:30

"The proposed final dividend of 3.70 pence per share gives a total dividend for
the year of 7.14 pence per share"

Assuming 7.14 is the rebased figure that still represents a juicy yield...

[milacs] 03/12/2009 10:35

jeffian

Sorry to hear about your experience with ETI. Considering our shared problems with PRM are you not tempted to apply stop losses.

Incidentally I agree with you, MARS and GNK are too close to call.

M

[jeffian] 03/12/2009 10:20

I have more in GNK than MARS and have held many brewer/pubco's over the years. I do happen to think GNK is the better company but it's marginal and I have an open mind so when that sort of comment comes up I'm genuinely interested in the thinking behind it. As milacs says, the programme to develop 60 pubs over 3 years is "conservative" (well, in timing anyway - slightly risky in terms of return) and means that whilst the dilutive effect of the RI is immediate, the full return on investment will not be reflected in the P&L account for around 4 years.

Unfortunately, my largest holding was in ETI which went up something like 19X.......before losing 90% of its value so don't talk to me about eggs in one basket!

8-)

[dasv] 03/12/2009 10:08

for some reason MARS March 10 (88p/89p) spread is cheaper than MARS June (91p,92p) spread on tdwaterhouse's cityindex platform. I have therefore bought the March 10 spread as well as a few shares in my SIPP.

[diku] 03/12/2009 09:57

Not all eggs in one basket!!...