Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[contrarian2investor] 16/2/2010 12:39

Hi all holders of MARS

Here is an opportunity to put questions to the boss of MARSTON's.



Last chance to put your question to pubco boss



c2i

[investinggarden] 10/2/2010 15:44

WI stock picks: Analysts toast prospects for brewers Marstons

[stevemarkus] 09/2/2010 10:48

Interesting to see decent sized buys (£50k-odd) from the wives of two of the directors.

Steve.

[pauliewonder] 09/2/2010 08:44

Look at the chart ang5.....isn't much further to go (I don't think). There could be a quick and easy 10% if you pick up at 80p.....long term has to be post £1 though IMV

[zcaprd7] 08/2/2010 18:55

Coming back to 80p support...

[ang5] 05/2/2010 09:00

now 85.5 p. maybe "buy " for ...?
any news, please..., thanks.

[pauliewonder] 03/2/2010 15:21

Yes, bodes well. Maybe he read the article from Merrill re: World Cup 2010 :)

[timbo003] 03/2/2010 14:19

That was a fairly decent sized Director/PDMR purchase announced today, which doesn't appear to be option related (which is good)

[diku] 02/2/2010 20:09

Merill has been drumming up the Pubcos today..

[cerrito] 02/2/2010 16:19

both eti and gnk strong today

[mhw28865] 02/2/2010 09:52

Whats with the spike this morning anybody know ?

[diku] 01/2/2010 23:10

Divi payment day tomorrow...

[cerrito] 01/2/2010 22:39

Thanks Linhur Walsall not very easy for me to get to

Interested in their comments about debt buy back and I would be worried if the price was to fall so low that it was beneficial for them to buy in.
In terms of the fixed rate securitized loans at 5.1576% I suppose 80 p is more or less the price and the same applies for the floating rate securitized debt of Libor plus a spread of about 1%.
Good to see that they have a good debt maturity profile with £966m of the total debt of £1195 maturing after 5 years.
I think they are right to want a modest degearing and moving ebitda:net debt down to 5x compared to last year's 5.7x and the year before's 6.2x makes sense.
Encouraged by your reports of the profitability of the new build
Currently have no shares... sold out after the IMS and waiting to see how low they will fall.

[evox] 01/2/2010 20:44

Great summary Linhur. Many thanks.

[timbo003] 01/2/2010 20:16

Thanks very much for that Linhur.

I tend to agree with your assessment of the likely trading range in the short term, however, we will be paid to wait with the nice divi.

[hazelton] 01/2/2010 19:38

I echo that too. Thanks Linhur.

[lord gnome] 01/2/2010 14:10

Thanks Linhur. Always good to get a first hand report. These remain on my watchlist. I am in no hurry to buy back in and will wait my opportunity. Hopefully I may a get a chance at 80p.

[linhur] 01/2/2010 13:15

As an attendee at the AGM,there was a lot of questions and most of those who spoke appeared to be disaffected shareholders who have lost value with the rights issue.

A few points
(1)Chairman said that they would remain dividend paying as a there was a large number of shareholders who had bought or supported rights issue who were income orientated.Do not expect increase in rebased dividend until cover reaches at least 2 times payment.
(2) Focus on new pubs. 15 will be trading by end of 2010. Expect new pubs to be profitable from Day 1. Braunston took £30,000 in first week.Expect average to be £23/25000 takings per week compared with current average of £14,000 for the managed side.All new pubs in high footfall areas eg next to supermarkets!
(3)Discussion on GNK purchase. CEO said it worked out at 18 x ebitda compared with MARS new build which would produce 6 x ebitda.New build was better value as it gives modern layout. Old pubs would need additional spend to add value, perhaps need to change staff thinking and change marketing from Punch to GNK thinking.
(4) Going to use £140mill of RI for new pubs. Remaining £25mill for repurchase of debt but not yet.Punch bought debt back at 60% discount. MARS debt is currently at 20% discount. Do not expect to buy back debt unless 40% discount(CFO).
(5) Get debt down to 5 x ebitda after 3 years.
(6) Criticism of Board for still keeping long time non-execs eg Miles Emley 12 years. Nobody raised the huge increase in pensions for board members.The total remuneration of the board was kept level with previous year. It looks as though all increases have been as pensions through a salary sacrifice scheme. Bit rich considering the loss of value for shareholders through a mistimed rights issue and a rebased dividend.

All a bit pie in the sky IMHO. Would like to see more disposals of bottom tier of pubs but market is very weak.

I think they will trade in range 80 - 100p for next 12 months.
kind regards
linhur

[diku] 01/2/2010 10:10

looks like normal service has resumed here!!...

[diku] 29/1/2010 22:31

Looking at the top left chart the price stayed just below 90p for most of the day...and then in the last hour the bottom just fell off!...all too scripted..

[1aws] 29/1/2010 17:06

The beer must have been flat.

[gbb483] 29/1/2010 16:59

Someone didn't like what came out of the AGM

[diku] 29/1/2010 12:06

Has the drinking session started yet? due at noon!...

[jeffian] 29/1/2010 10:40

.

(Edited out -- dozy post!)

[diku] 29/1/2010 09:11

Merill Lynch had a Buy recommendation yesterday...Today Astaire Securities have a Buy recommendation...