Manganese Bronze Share Discussion Threads

[m.t.glass] 06/5/2008 17:20

Does anyone else here think Manganese Bronze may have under-estimated the cost advantage of the electric (Tx4e) cab in their own comparison with diesel? They must be using some very outdated fuel costs if they reckon they can run a diesel taxi for 9p a mile. Twice that (or a little more) would be nearer the mark! In which case the electric version has an 80% advantage in running costs, not 55%,

These are LTI's own stats:

And here is last week's fuel cost guide:


Average pump price for diesel 120.5p per litre, or
548p per gallon (4.546 litres to the UK gallon). So nearly 20p per mile for diesel vehicle in urban use - vs 4p for electric version (Manga actually say less than 4p).

Or have I got it wrong? Anyone care to check those figures and see if they come out any different?

[crystalclear] 16/4/2008 14:41

Shanghai Taxis about to launched for the Beijing olympics, with a saloon car, etc. What really matters is how well these vehicles sell when they are launched in China. The rest could go bust, who cares?

Look at the graph and you can see that the real big financial play has just been made.

[davidosh] 16/4/2008 14:34

You mean the falling taxi sales then ? It appears that Q1 is well down and certainly the five month period was about 9% down on last year. Are there any new forecasts out ? Arden did have a sell note and the house broker the weakest forecasts of all rather interestingly

[crystalclear] 16/4/2008 14:33

The big game seems to be to wait for the Beijing motor show (forward looking) and not the results (rear view mirror).

[crystalclear] 16/4/2008 14:26

They don't matter.
They are rear view mirror stuff and not applicable since what matters for this company is all in the future.

[davidosh] 16/4/2008 13:19

Any thoughts on the results guys ??

[nirvs] 18/2/2008 10:00

Looks on the edge of a break down here. Short 520.

[welsheagle] 13/2/2008 21:15

From February's 'Company Refs', when price was 540p:-
a/ Prospective PE ratio of 37 (based on four broker forecasts, two recommending 'buy', one with no recommendation, and one recommending 'sell').
b/ Forecast eps in 2008 of 16.6p.
c/ Net asset value per share of 113p.
d/ Dividend yield of 1.32%.
e/ Turnover down from £119m to £83.8m in last five years.
f/ Cash flow of 7.21p per share.

[stockscreeners] 04/12/2007 04:01

way overvalued.

[crystalclear] 04/12/2007 03:58

Geely didn't pay Antonov PLC the money they owed them and so Antonov PLC recently withdrew from further cooperation. Christopher Ross sits on the board of directors of Antonov PLC and Manganese Bronze, so maybe the Manganese Bronze directors thought twice about trusting Geely with their own money.

It look as if Geely have made a paper loss of millions on their stake in Maganese Bronze as a result of breach of contract with Antonov, for the sake of a few hundred thousand.

[typo56] 03/12/2007 18:08

Another director selling their complete stake. They don't think they're a great hold here then?

[toffeeman] 04/11/2007 17:31

Wotcha david - howz tricks?

[davidosh] 04/11/2007 01:45

Two main directors selling ALL not just a few of their shares and in significant size at a time when turnover is flat at best and yet the company is on such a high rating suggests shareholders should also review their holdings!!!

[welsheagle] 03/11/2007 20:05

From November's 'Company Refs', when price was 706p:-
a/ Prospective PE ratio of 154 (based on four broker forecasts, two recommending 'buy', one with no recommendation, and one recommending 'sell').
b/ Forecast eps in 2008 of 16.6p.
c/ Net asset value per share of 113p.
d/ Dividend yield of 0.85%.
e/ Turnover down from £119m to £83.8m in last five years.

[welsheagle] 11/10/2007 20:04

Other measures such as a price to cash flow of 121, and a net asset value per share of just 113p, also make the shares look overvalued.
Sp of 350p is more like the true value.

[doubleorquits] 10/10/2007 22:04

Ah, sorry JakNife - I need to keep up with things :0)

The fact that you are short means you are a braver person than me. It looks a short to me on all things I can see outlined above, but I'm still not sure that I have the guts to do it. Something is supporting this one and even on the fancy ratings that it trades I still cannot fathom it out.

I hope I'm wrong in not shorting a stock that screams sell to me from all corners, and that you make a packet from it. Good luck - and sorry for jumping to false conclusions. :0)

So is there anybody there who can explain why gravity is defied here?

[doubleorquits] 10/10/2007 21:04

This share does defy gravity.....but I'm not sure how. China is obviously a major factor in shaping the future of the company and it does operate in a niche area with little (or no) competition.

I still can't get my head around the valuation though. A price target of £11 from the Edison note looks bullish enough but when considering that the stock is currently on a PE of 67 (historic) and a forward PE of 54 and 44 I still don't get why anyone would want to risk paying for that sort of rating. The £11 target based on Edison's own EPS figures equates to a PE of 63 with growth for 2007 and 2008 only appearing to be 25% and 30% roughly. On a PEG of 2 that seems very expensive and even with the chance for exponential growth in the future the fact that Edison does not see it happening in the next eighteen months or so would worry me as an investor because the risk is too high.

I am not suggesting that it's necessarily a great short - the fact it keeps climbing confirms that - but after entry into the SMX Index last year when it more than doubled in a couple of months, I have to admit I thought it would fall back and retrace at least some of those gains.

Surely, it appears a very high risk-reward share and there is little room for failure or delay. I see that LAC is now just about back to where it was when I first bought - basically because the expected growth did not materialise and delays have hindered any progress there.

I just don't get the attraction here and maybe JakNife can explain. If you have been in for some time then well done and I agree there is probably little need to sell until the trend changes. But how can you persuade me or anybody else that at this price, on this rating, this is a share I should buy?

PS. I note that Edison remain firm in the belief that an EPS target of 150p remains realistic if one is prepared to look five years on. But, apart from that being too far ahead for me at the moment to merit risking cash (even on a then PE of 7!), I also know how Edison can sometimes get is massively wrong when looking ahead (see CRT). with CRT there were big "IFS" and they never materialised, and apparently never really had a chance of doing so. With MNGS I still see "IFS" even if they are not quite as unlikely as with CRT. It's just that forking out for an expensive share like this does not seem a sensible idea, particularly in these markets and the "R" word being mentioned - even "IF" it all works out well.

[welsheagle] 10/10/2007 20:41

Thanks, Jaknife.

[welsheagle] 10/10/2007 19:47

Cannot get into the Edison report - Can you post the jist, Jaknife.