Manganese Bronze Share Discussion Threads

[typo56] 16/7/2008 07:47

FT today:

Manganese Bronze, the maker of London's famous black taxi cabs, fell 5.1 per cent to 277p on concerns about the prospects for its Chinese joint venture LTI Shanghai

[typo56] 15/7/2008 17:36

Tosca's holdings in SML (26.02%), PTEC (12.4065%), CYAN (10%) and SOM (6.709%) aren't looking so tidy right now either.

[davidosh] 15/7/2008 12:29

I wonder if they are now coming under pressure. More on Tosca

[toffeeman] 15/7/2008 11:20

15th july 11.19 1p spread - is this a record!

[toffeeman] 14/7/2008 17:14

I think Toscafield paid about £10m for their stake in 2005 ( about 5.5m shares) and have added about 1m shares at 375. So their average price is about 220.

If they wanted to unload the only feasible buyer in that size would be Geely and what would they pay?

[davidosh] 14/7/2008 08:53

The largest shareholder in MNGS appears to be having problems with its investments



The distress would be huge if they started to sell down their interest in MNGS. I understand they have had very large holdings in a number of UK housebuilders since March and that may be hurting them as no doubt they use considerable leverage as a hedge fund often does.

That said the 40% drop in MNGS share price in the last six weeks cannot have helped them

[davidosh] 12/7/2008 22:54

I suspect that by removing the old cabs from the market that would sell for just a couple of thousand pounds in the trade or even less, M&O thinking is that there are less available low cost cabs so drivers will be forced to buy new or high value second hand from them.

The other marketing thought is that they would probably have to knock £3000 off the new price anyway so why not highlight it as a cashback/reduction for an old cab !

[domwilliams] 10/7/2008 12:07

Anyone know how popular the £3k trade-ins have been that MNGS are offering on Metrocabs and Fairways ?



Some short-term pain for anticipated long-term monopoly I guess is the strategy - if they can shift LTI stock.

[davidosh] 08/7/2008 18:45

Has anyone worked out the affect on margins if sales have continued the downward trend to end of the first half at 30th June and average sale prices are say 7% lower overall ? (Current list price discounts are actually nearly 10% on average with Gold being sold at Silver prices and the Silver range at Bronze prices ) I am sure the prices can be pushed lower than that by a cheeky cabbie looking for a deal in these harder times!

By my calculations with higher input costs they must be selling at close to a loss and hoping to make it back on the high servicing charges later and any financing deal if still available.

[toffeeman] 08/7/2008 08:45

If you phone them and ask them to fill an order they will

[uncle-bob] 08/7/2008 08:22

Anyone else finding these hard to trade via IG? They won't let me sell any more online :(

[davidosh] 07/7/2008 15:24

It is not just the sales that are definitely significantly down at Mann & Overton but also the prices of the cabs....they have been reduced by around 12% so margins will be severely tested IMO. Raw material prices must be up significantly too.

[queeny2] 03/7/2008 09:02

take over metrocab? what for? only to close it surely. it exists solely because of a rule book in one city in the world.

[davidosh] 02/7/2008 23:34

I do not expect the Merc to become the main seller of black cabs overnight but there is now a serious second option for London and anywhere else that demands the turning circle requirement. There are many other vehicles that compete elsewhere. We do not know how the second hand values will hold until there are lots on the market that have been used as black cabs but it must affect the overall market in some way.

Reduced new cab prices and deals must mean residual values for older cabs will be eroded downward by similar amounts.

You are quite right though....a looming recession will make sales difficult for all parties and a fierce price war will not be something they will want. I fully expect a profit warning of some kind if sales continue to decline. In my view at these levels of sales and margin reductions MNGS will almost certainly make a loss in the second half of 2008.

[jonth] 02/7/2008 22:28

Merc should have taken over metrocab, improved it and then moved it forward. They are trying to do things on the cheap.It will be a long haul for them and ecocabs launching this in a looming recession.

[jonth] 02/7/2008 22:23

No one knows the quality of the merc cab yet.It will take some work for them to win market share in london with a converted vito that looks like numerous private hire cars.If MNGS can source their parts considerably cheaper now then they will still be favoured by cabbies and fleets.Ive looked at used vitos and they dont hold their value like black cabs.These are some of the known knowns and the known unknowns that need to be known.

[davidosh] 02/7/2008 16:11

I do not think this has been one of Toscafields best judged purchases or indeed investment overall now.

[davidosh] 02/7/2008 11:05

Felix99.....I understand that the cabs are still to be built in Coventry for the foreseeable future. The company will merely try to make savings by sourcing cheaper parts from China and far east. The cabs made in China are for international sales of which they made 30 last year ... Yes 30 only.

The numbers thrown up by the company are purely distributors and agents showing interest in a london cab that can be sold cheaper than it can be made currently. They have NO concrete orders and nothing can be shipped until well into 2009 if they get guaranteed signed up purchase orders.

By then there will be losses in the UK at the current slash rate on prices so the question will be ....How many hundreds of thousands will they need to sell to meet those forecasts and I suspect they would not be able to produce them in the H2 only anyway.

The UK is declining rapidly so a profit warning for this year is on the cards IMO.

[felix99] 02/7/2008 10:46

and erm I think Mercedes has a bit more clout to stay around than metrocab lol .Your comparing apples to pears Mercedes versus Metrocab ?

What would you rather have for the same price - a German built quality cab or some "british" cab built in China to their exacting quality standards .

IF Chinese build quality is as hit and miss as it has been over the years you probably will have a 50:50 chance of buying a lemon from MNGS in China.

I don;t see rushes of fleet pre-ordering the New chinese cab - lots of drivers up the street say they would be interested - but are these firm orders? Expressions of intent I think they call them. Its not Boeing and Virgin Airlines this chaps !

Even if they were who is going to say in this economic environment that cabbies won;'t cancel it and just keep running the old one?

Ive nothing great against MNGS but if the brokers think they are going to make £9m next year I think in this environment - of which a large chunk comes from the Chinese JV its no small order. Arden downgraded its forecast for this year to £2m odd in mid April - and hey things aren;t getting any better!

Forecasts if your interested

2008/ 2009
EPS Arden 5.8p £2m / 25.9p £9m
Edison 9.4p £4.5m / 38.7p £13.5m ( downgraded )
Kaup nothing 2008 / 49p for 2009 !


Forget the business just look at the valaution in this stonking bull market at 330p .

Whats the p.e ? at 330p 56.7 for current year dropping to 13 next year if you take Arden;s stuff. How is moving manufacturing overseas going to sell more cabs then to make this 25.9p for 2009 ?

Lets assume 2009 forecasts are banged on .Even a p/e of 13 is not ungenerous in this mkt .

Only way this can justify its rating is if every Chinese taxi driver decides he wants a black cab - thats what you are betting on basically as far as I can see. I assume Merc will be selling into China too?

Just some thoughts for discussion and perhaps a reality check for some

[davidosh] 02/7/2008 10:32

Metrocab did not have the financial strength or backing to compete with the well entrenched LTI at that time. Merc are a different ball game and will know how to price and play the situation until fully accepted by the trade and punters

[jonth] 02/7/2008 09:39

I dont think either company would be interested in a price war.Remember there was already an alternative taxi metrocab up to a couple of years ago.These were slightly dearer than the MNGS model at the time.

[davidosh] 02/7/2008 09:25

The Mercs are six seaters. The base Merc cab is about 3k cheaper than the list price of the same spec LTI cab but MNGS are evidently dropping prices. Margins will disappear to negative in a prolonged price war and their second hand prices will drop which will not please the cabbies but will probably help them keep on the road by picking up cheaper one rather than buying new in these uncertain times.

[felix99] 02/7/2008 09:11

I thought Merc was a lot cheaper and 7 seater. I heard they chopped £2500 off a black cab too and finance is 50% at mo I think .

Might be worth buying a cab as a family car - after all they do 300- 400k although no idea what fuel efficeicny is like :-)

[jonth] 02/7/2008 08:56

I believe the merc is going to be in the same price bracket,cost savings on chinese factory should help with their margins.
I dont hold these by the way and dont intend to too risky.