Manganese Bronze Share Discussion Threads

[macansy77] 31/7/2008 10:08

p.s. at the rate of decline in cash, i'd think they are going to have raise money soon....

[davidosh] 31/7/2008 10:00

As pointed out by many...

Why do they compare to a period that was 17 months ago ? Do they not have management accounts to show true like for like figures for same period 2007 ?

In the period to 31st July last year the cab sales were 1806 and in this period 1169. Actual UK sales seem to be down by nearly 40% (UK was only 1112).

They say break even reduced to 2000 but with H2 always much weaker by 40% I would expect this economic outlook to make that even worse. Full year sales at 1750 at best would be my guess. I still think a full year loss is on the cards and they must currently have about 300 new cabs in a field due for somewhere ??

[macansy77] 31/7/2008 09:44

research this morning from JM Finn...

Manganese Bronze SELL

Results roughly in line. Progress at the Chinese JV is on track with previous indications. The core UK taxi business however remains weak so the 2008 out turn looks lacklustre. The shares look expensive in the short term - the longer term remains unclear with a new Mercedes taxi launched targeting 20% UK market share over the next 2 years.

Results summary: revenues decline 7% to £42.4m, with operating profit of
£1.7m a significant improvement on £1.0m last year, giving Pre tax profit of
£1.5m, versus £0.7m and EPS of 3.16p. The dividend was unchanged at 2.25p.

China: China appears to be on track to start prototype production on schedule
before the year end, with a strong indication that significant component cost
reductions are also being achieved according to plan.

Core UK market: The market remains weak and is likely to continue to see the combined effects of high diesel prices, the impact of the credit crunch on
financing taxi sales & lower consumer expenditure. MNGS indicates a 17%
reduction in unit sales, SMMT data suggests further weakening is likely.

Valuation: in the short term the shares look expensive, at around 60x consensus earnings dropping to around 12x next year, dependant on a significant profit impact from China. We would continue to see weakness based on the UK market and impact of the Mercedes, despite the shares having weakened by 35% since our sell recommendation in June.

[toffeeman] 31/7/2008 09:10

Any comment? - market seems happy enough with the appalling UK performance - but guess it likes the overseas news!

[toffeeman] 30/7/2008 16:16

Well tomorrow's the day - let's hope the results are sh1t!!!!

[felix99] 26/7/2008 18:29

£600k is not booked against profits. It goes against the deficit . its the cash they have to pay into the scheme for the 6 months period. Doesnt affect profit just cashflow.

[davidosh] 26/7/2008 13:37

Excellent post Felix99

The next results are the interims. If you think the annual figure is £1.2m will they account for 600k in each half or wait until the finals to book the whole defecit ?

[davidosh] 26/7/2008 02:14

Can anyone explain the pension situation at MNGS



I do know they are celebrating their 60th anniversary this year.

Cabbies leaving the trade in Scotland



This shows how black cabs are losing out to the private hire drivers and cannot compete on fares

[the analyst] 23/7/2008 16:35

TRAVEL DESK

Days away from the Mercedes Vito Taxi hitting the streets of the capital will have another big hitter vying for London's 20,000 fleet of black cabs, in the form of a Peugeot.

The Peugeot E7 based on the 807 launched by Allied Vehicles of London is an electric powered taxi with a range of around one hundred miles and can zoom upto 60mph.

The cost is on a par with the Mercedes Vito Taxi of £30K, but the added selling point of an "all-green" cab may attract more punters around town.

However Allied Vehicles argue on their website that "The evidence published by the PCO shows that the Peugeot E7 taxi could be up to 19% cheaper to purchase and operate than an LTI taxi (a saving of £9,354 over four years). Frontier estimates that, over a twenty-year period, this could mean savings for drivers and passengers totaling some £183 million."

Savings to the cab driver will be through long-term energy efficiency and the makers of the E7 Gavin Gillies, Managing Director of Cab Direct - British manufacturers of the Peugeot E7 black cab - commented:

"Our case isn't about making anyone switch to an alternative taxi. We simply want London taxi firms and drivers to have the opportunity to make their own, informed decision on what vehicle best suits their business."

photo credit: Allied Vehciles

[the analyst] 23/7/2008 16:22

Interesting article and comments about the E7 electric taxi

[davidosh] 23/7/2008 15:30

I wonder if they could only sell that number so far because Tosca were the only buyer needing to absorb the hit and would only go to their 29% limit.

Just a thought and if so are they going to drip sell the remainder with no obvious buyer

[the analyst] 23/7/2008 15:13

Just looking at today's announcement makes me wonder whether Lehman Brothers are intending to liquidate their entire holding? My guess is that they are trying to off-load in advance of results.

Perhaps like daviddosh, they are expecting news of grim current trading, reduced margins on sales and an uncertain mid-term outlook.

Long-term, of course, there may be some value from the China operations, but if they are really not looking at selling any vehicles over there until 2009, then there may be very little to look forward to for quite some time

"Manganese Bronze Holdings PLC (the 'Company') advises that it has received notification
from Lehman Brothers International (Europe)
that, following the disposal of 838,603 ordinary shares, it has a notifiable interest in
1,096,471 of the Company's ordinary shares,
representing 4.39% of the issued share capital"

[toffeeman] 23/7/2008 14:31

Just about Felix - there have been times in the past where a trade has to occur at the price for a limit/stop to trigger, and at other times it's been the bid/offer.

[felix99] 23/7/2008 13:25

if you had a stop on a CFD or spreadbet at 280 say then they would have tried to execute trade and sold at the 200.

If you had a guaranteed at 280 say they would only take oyu out if it actually traded at 280 or less. Whether it trades in size is a moot point I guess.

IF you had a stop less sell at self trade say it may have tried to trade it but they aren;'t usually that quick and agian it depends on electronic dealling limit at time

If you placed a sell order on book limit at £2 it would have taken whole book inlcuding £2 . Hope that covers the scenarios Toffeeman !

[toffeeman] 23/7/2008 11:22

wtf - did you see the spread this morning?

Question: - if I had a limit sell at 200 would it have been filled - or does there need to be a trade at that level?

[davidosh] 22/7/2008 19:47

Some quick figures to check out from previous reports..

Cab sales

to 30/6/08....????
to 31/12/07...1027 (five months only)
to 31/7/07 ...1806
to 31/1/07....1347
to 31/7/06....1366
to 31/1/06....1114

The next period to report on 31 July is for sales to 30th June and could be as low as 1300 compared to the nearest like for like of 1806 to 31/7/07. That would be a fall of nearly 30% and as sales were already at least 11% down for the five month period it shows how the situation could have detiorated.

Forecasts

The last forecast I saw was for £99m revenue this year and that equates to about 2790 cab sales at average price/sales ratios in line with the average over the previous year and five month period taken together.

As I cannot see the company selling that many cabs in this market/economy and with competition from Mercedes and even more importantly because the margins have been eroded with price slashing I do feel the company should have warned against these estimates by now.

If they only sell 1300 cabs at an average price of £34000 plus some servicing and finance income on top at say £1.2m then total revenue will be £45.4m. That leaves quite a bit of shortfall for the normally weaker second half selling period.

Margins

The price reductions will hurt margins and the gross profit on sales has only been around the 14% level with distribution and admin costs on top of that. A reduction in price and the higher rawe material costs must be leaving the margins wafer thin and no volume to balance against the overall costs. I predict a near loss in H1 overall and an almost certain loss for the full year at these price discounts and low volumes. They will probably only really be profitable in the peak selling months.

Not a pretty outlook.

[scburbs] 21/7/2008 17:25

There is a distinction to be drawn between the cars to be sold by MNGS and those to be sold by Geely.

The JV will make a profit (or it will be intending to) on both the Taxi's sold to MNGS for sale into the UK (and ROW exc. Asia) and the cars (including the Taxi's in Asia and the Saloon cars etc.) that are being sold to Geely. MNGS will benefit from a 48% share of this profit.

However, the profits for MNGS will be greater on the Taxi's as it will include their share of the JV profit and their share of the profit on sale.

The share of the Saloon car profit that MNGS benefit from will depend upon the margins that the JV is permitted to make. The rest of the profit on these cars will accrue to Geely.

[crystalclear] 21/7/2008 17:05

You're right, as the price differential between China and the UK drops, any profits brought back from Shanghai LTI will have a greater value, and vehicles that are not part of the joint venture are entirely Geely's affair. That's why I mention the limousine and saloon cars, rather than Geely's car line-up which is irrelevant, apart from helping to lower costs with economies of scale if they use some similar parts, eg brakes, transmissions, engines, etc.

[davidosh] 21/7/2008 16:41

The licence that involves the cab and joint venture is with Geely as a separate entity which MNGS own 48% of from memory. Are you sure that MNGS will have a 48% share of profits If Geely make other vehicles that are not part of this licence ?

The cost of raw materials and labour in China is fast increasing so the price differential will not be as big as it was when this idea was first floated.

[crystalclear] 21/7/2008 16:25

They'd favour an iconic Taxi because it is recognisable as a Taxi, and because Geely have a call centre where one telephone number should be able to get you a local Taxi almost anywhere in China. Geely would be stupid not to insist on a Taxi that looks like a Taxi as part of their franchise agreement.

No shipping is required for Taxis made and sold in China.

There seems to be a fixation with price here, as if the price of Taxis will not drop enormously when Geely's production site starts.

But also, why are we fixated with Taxis rather than the limousine or either of the two saloon cars?

[davidosh] 21/7/2008 16:05

Why would they favour a heavily built London style cab at a higher premium price rather than a locally produced standard cab ?

The timeframe has been moved back with regard to the production schedule as the original date given to shareholders for production in China was mid 2008. It is now likely to be early 2009.

How many guaranteed firm orders do they have and shipping them to where ?

[crystalclear] 21/7/2008 15:24

dom
What will the price be in China where it is made?
What sort of sales do you expect in China for the saloon car?

...they will need to pull a lucky rat out of the hat to have some sales to announce too.


There are currently more than a million taxis on China and the market is set to grow rapidly with the country's industrial expansion. Geely has 1,000 dealerships in China and is set to expand its network across the whole of Asia.

[domwilliams] 21/7/2008 15:21

The Olympics are 16 days away, commencing on Wednesday 6th August. Geely may well have some prototypes ready by then, but they will need to pull a lucky rat out of the hat to have some sales to announce too.

The problem with the LTI cab is that it is overpriced in all of its intended markets, when comparing similar rivals.