Manganese Bronze Share Discussion Threads

[felix99] 06/8/2008 12:46

aha yes that must be where the Morgan Stanley stake went to - or at least half of it . I would dearly love to know the price it crossed at !

Sorry yes just seen - Hermes had 12% previously per Refs

[the analyst] 06/8/2008 12:44

Hermes UK have bought in. They didn't have a significant holding before.

I imagine that this declaration means they have now finished accumulating. Perhaps they took shares off Morgen Stanley?



Interest in Shares (Manganese Bronze)

RNS Number : 7743A
Manganese Bronze Hldgs PLC
06 August 2008




Manganese Bronze Holdings PLC
6 August 2008


Interest in Shares
Manganese Bronze Holdings PLC (the 'Company') advises that it today received notification
from Hermes UK Small Companies Focus Fund that
it has a notifiable interest in 3,290,042 of the Company's ordinary shares, representing
13.180% of the issued share capital.
For further information, please contact:

Financial Dynamics Tel : [phone]
Jon Simmons
Manganese Bronze Holdings plc
Mark Fryer, Group Finance and Business Development Tel: [phone]
Director


This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

[davidosh] 06/8/2008 12:26

That was the obvious error along with the text stating that the overstocking will largely unwind in H2 which clearly cannot happen on current sales will be even worse on falling sales.

The eps forecast is out of line with the market too at 9.2p when concensus was 5.7p and is now at 3p and that frankly is the best that management are hoping for with break even targetted in.

The name of the analyst on the broker note is Michael O'Brien. Maybe some of you wish to contact him regarding the content!! As shareholders you should be concerned that new buyers will be expecting far better figures next time than are likely to appear.

[the analyst] 06/8/2008 11:50

They seem to be selling the story to the city quite successfully. Possibly stoking the share price to get a placing through at a reasonable price. In that respect, the company seem to be doing a decent job for investors at this time, given the profit warning and poor outlook.

I am, though, very concerned about this 'typo' you mention David. Did you manage to find out whether this typo extends to figures throughout the whole forecast, or is it just a headline error on the front page of the broker note?

Despite the success selling to the city, if the price goes up much more, then I will be looking to take a large short out, in anticipation of a lack of interest in the shares after the company have done their rounds in the city.

[judgement] 06/8/2008 10:39

If the revenue is a typing error, then I assume that all other figures in the note are still correct, as they will be based upon the correct figure. Typos only apply to single words/figures.

[davidosh] 06/8/2008 10:00

Yes it is the house broker Collins Stewart who have sent out an inaccurate note with £105m as the expected sales when it should have been £80m but they are claiming it was a typing error.....yeah right three digits instead of two !! The eps forecast is for 9.2p whilst the company have said they are only comfortable with 3p !!

A new note is going out today so hopefully the inaccuracies will be corrected and no new errors found.

Has anyone seen any other broker research since the interims ? I understand another analyst has reduced expectation to £0.7m pbt but not seen a hard copy

[queeny2] 06/8/2008 08:25

which note? collins steart?

[davidosh] 05/8/2008 19:12

A fund manager has claimed that the £105m sales estimate is a 'typo' in the broker note and should have read £80m and the eps figure is wrong as based on a far larger number of sales than the company can possibly make in H2.

If the buying is by any fund manager reading that note and using those figures then he will be very disappointed when he sees the replacement figures from the house broker. The bit that worries me is that the directors gave these notes out personally and did not acknowledge that there were serious factual errors and they really stare you in the face on reading it !!

The note is titled 'London falling - Call the far away towns'

It also states and the analyst anticipates that the reduction in cash caused by the overstocking in a weak market will largely unwind in H2....

That simply cannot happen unless they shutdown the factory for at least three months and possibly more.

The reason..

The company are producing 16 cabs per day and intend to reduce that down to 12 a run rate of 2000 per annum and the break even figure. However if they manufacture just 1000 cabs in H2 which is a bit below the daily rate being targetted then they will have overproduced by about 100 cabs in H2 as the current sales estimate is for about 900 having sold 1112 here in the first half.

I think the 900 target is realistic but sales are dwindling in this market so even that may be a tall order. How can 1000 cabs being built plus 700 or so already in stock minus 900 equate to a reduction of stocking levels. If they build just 300 cabs then they would probably have about three months supply and be back down to historic inventory levels. Anything more and the claim that it will largely unwind simply does not have any merit IMO.

There seem to be some strange claims being made and my view is that the stocking level and high finance cost of holding it is going to be a real problem over the next six months. A warning sign but ignored by the analyst as he thinks sales will be 50% higher in H2 according to his broker research note....and that is the house broker and Nomad too !!

[macansy77] 05/8/2008 18:24

do CSCS have a holding in MNGS?

[felix99] 05/8/2008 16:29

Think the big tell tale on here will be if direcotrs are buying. I don;t see them rushing?

[nickcduk] 05/8/2008 16:03

Looks like some extreme bear squeezes taking place in the market. I imagine MNGS is benefiting from it as well.

[macansy77] 05/8/2008 15:54

i'm out - CSCS were responsible for the large trades, 2 x 50k and the 113k. Something is going on, fishy or otherwise...

[macansy77] 05/8/2008 14:25

When CSCS are involved as housebrokers anything is possible - they've got to be the shadiest outfit out there by a long way...

[davidosh] 05/8/2008 14:12

I think the house brokers are setting this up for a massive profit warning. They have sent out a note to fund managers stating that the company will do £105m sales in the full year and eps of 9.2p putting them on a p/e of 34.1

In reality and the directors statements have confirmed that H2 will be weaker and the company will be hoping to break even in the second half.

I see sales of £80m maximum and earnings of 3p at best with a full year loss a 50% possibility. The p/e will be 100 plus at that level.

Do the house brokers not speak to the company before pushing out this stuff ? Worse still the directors have probably been handing it out direct to the fund managers at the presentations in the City

They will not be pleased if they see the true picture and work out the figures themselves.

[crystalclear] 05/8/2008 13:51

I don't think timing is everything.

Sometimes, a punter buys a share for 10p in a good company and was skillful or had a lucky break. It goes to a £1 and he makes 90p. Very often he took all sorts of risks about the company's prospects. He sells it when a deal is shored up. Then a fund buys it, waits for the business plan to come into action and it goes to £2.

The punter make 90p on a ten bagger (at great risk) and the fund makes 100p on a two bagger (at little risk).

It's about buying quality and cheaply. Sure it's possible to try bottom picking and to get smelly fingers. Too many people are looking for short term gains. Playing musical chairs with shares is fine if you are quicker at finding the seats than the others. But a guy that sits on his chair and stays there is going to have a seat when the music stops without all the faffing about.

[felix99] 05/8/2008 13:22

Timing is everything with any stock Crystal. Really depends whether the jam tomorrow is attractive enough to attract buyers or at least coutneract the sellers.

I would have said last few weeks Inst wouldn't be interested in the jam tomorrow. Based on todays mkt perforamnce in the mkt who knows if the wally fund managers will chase the jam !

Buy high sell low is the fund manglers motto - who knows if you get one idiot fund manager out in Beijing and he sees an LTI !!!!

[crystalclear] 05/8/2008 12:32

There is a contrast there between Li Shu Fu's view of Manganese Bronze and davidosh's.

dividosh is expecting a short term fall in sales of the existing taxis in the UK.

Li Shu Fu is setting up factories around the world that can assemble cars from
"Completely Knocked Down" kits.

We moved that factory to Indonesia. In Ukraine, we also have a CKD operation where we build the freedom vessel, and the King Kong model. In North America, we have plans for an operation in Mexico, we have a large scope for North America, we plan to sell 300,000 cars in that continent.

He plans to make Taxis a global iconic brand.

It is two visions of the future that can both be right. If they are both right and the shares get hammered in the short term, then there could be a great buying opportunity before Li Shu Fu's plans start to materialise.

[davidosh] 04/8/2008 19:33

Yes I had to smile when I saw international sales had gone up in H1 to 57 cabs but then when checking found that over 30 had been sold into China for modification work before being used to assist disabled guests. So the sales there were a little misleading too. The cabs were not produced in China as none will be available off the production line before December.

Astonishingly the house broker still expects the company ( its client so therefore non independent research) to do £105m in sales for the full year and eps of 9.2p.

H1 is the stronger half and sales are still falling so with £42.4m of sales in H1 I beg to differ.....in fact I will be amazed if sales can reach £85m for the full year. My own estimate would be below £80m.

Where do these analysts expect UK sales to come from and to expect 50% higher in H2 is ludicrous ??

On that basis a profit warning by the time of the IMS in October is even more likely.

[domwilliams] 04/8/2008 12:51

Will be a long while before this LTI page is populated again...

[davidosh] 04/8/2008 12:06

At some stage it will be down to fundamentals and with MNGS they are far from great and too much spin means that there is a huge amount in the price still for jam tomorrow IMO

[felix99] 04/8/2008 11:34

no probs - jsut sounde dlike you didn;t have level 2 to appreciate the deal sizes. Moves can be painful bad and correspondingly ruddy great if they go yer way.

[rthak] 04/8/2008 11:12

FELIX99 - thanks and I had appreciated this. The margin on my short is 10% - I can cover upto a 60% increase in the price before being called on my position. 50% is my norm, but 60% on a highly illiquid share.

[davidosh] 04/8/2008 10:47

Just made some careful enquiries. The company currently have 800 unsold new cabs and are closing the factory for three weeks in August then moving to shorter production in the hope of reducing stock. The big problem is that to do that they need to increase sales and those are actually falling !!