Manganese Bronze Share Discussion Threads

[domwilliams] 20/8/2008 12:46

Thanks for flagging the Edison note, JakNife.

Interesting that they are clinging to the long-term story of mass-produced cars from China, with a passing mention of short-term UK woes.

£7 is justified they reckon (15% discount p.a. from 15x 2010 earnings giving share price of £10.50).

IMV they rightly believe a small loss will be made this year, but estimate EPS rising to 70p in 2010 based on a lot of assumptions of sales by Shanghai LTI.

Ignoring the future blue-sky, their short-term valuation conclusion states:

On the basis of our estimates for 2008, Manganese Bronze shares are materially overvalued. While there is strong recovery potential, supported by the reduced Coventry cost-base and the emergence of low-cost components from China, the share price is at least twice its appropriate level on the basis of UK prospects alone.

[nickcduk] 20/8/2008 12:30

Sign up and you will then be able to access the file.

[crystalclear] 20/8/2008 12:24

JakNife - 20 Aug'08 - 09:55 - 391 of 392
Updated note from Edison:

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[tanners] 20/8/2008 12:14

Morning Jaknife........you long or short here ;-)

[davidosh] 19/8/2008 11:25

As a further point although I closed some of my short position in the 'squeeze' I was able to re-open half at far higher prices to maintain my stance. The fundamentals are weak so my view is that given time it will go much lower. There is nothing wrong with trading around the edges as the stock moves up and down in much the same way you might do with a company you are very keen on and have a long term investment.

I really do think the share price will now drift lower again as there are no buyers of any size, the short term news is likely to be very negative and the markets are weak in general. It does appear that it was only shorts closing out that caused the spike and we know that Morgan Stanley are releasing the stock they acquired whether under their own instructions or for a third party.

There have been no new institutional buyers so I suspect the fall will continue but my plan is to maintain a sensibly sized position in case another squeeze is attempted so that you can run with the move and take advantage of any subsequent fall.

[nickcduk] 19/8/2008 10:52

A good summary of what has probably happened to MNGS recently:-



Most of the extreme bear squeezes have unravelled somewhat.

[nickcduk] 19/8/2008 07:53

I don't think David's integrity is in question. He outlined a short case for the stock. It then began to rally sharply. In that scenario if your position is a little outsized you then look at reducing your exposure as you can't be sure what is driving it higher. Absolutely nothing wrong with doing that and no need to explain yourself either.

[thinktank] 19/8/2008 04:06

Many thanks for the info, though, davidosh. I realise you don't have to volunteer it, so I appreciate you replying.

It is good to know I was right that you were indeed closing a short

[thinktank] 18/8/2008 18:02

What's the terminology for the opposite of a pump and dump?

MNGS has been talked down so a major short position could be closed. Just the fact that daviddosh is all over the advfn boards but has suddenly stopped posting here makes him the number one candidate for being the trickster involved. It is now much safer to short this company than it was when daviddosh was in full flow and we were seeing the share price rise by 40%.

The good news I'm hearing is that just about all the major shorts have been closed out now, leaving it open for a free run for the price. It can now go down to where it should be. In my opinion, that is about 100p per share prior to raising more funds.

The next trading update will be terrible in my opinion and will be the day when we see the big drop in share price. Only two months to wait for that.

[crystalclear] 14/8/2008 12:05

nickcduk - 11 Aug'08 - 14:18 - 375 of 380
A trade print of 8000 shares were purchased at todays highs just after 10am this morning. I imagine that was someone being forced to close out a short position.

11% of 93% of 25 million shares must be about 2½ million shares on loan. Is that data still correct?
If Linkstate, Hermes, Lehman and Morgan Stanley own 2/3 of the company then it would be easy to see that getting hold of shares could be difficult.

If 8000 shares will raise the price £1 or so, then I'd love to see what happens when people try to settle 2½ million shares.

[the analyst] 13/8/2008 16:36

Finally took a small short position this morning. The price movement seems to be indicating that many of the shorters have been taken out. IGI have started to take orders again, so the big position they needed to get rid of looks like it may have cleared.

Are you still shorting David, or did the recent movement result in you taking profit and moving on.

[the analyst] 12/8/2008 10:36

No daviddosh around, is he on holiday?

[domwilliams] 12/8/2008 10:17

So does anyone know if CS have reissued their note with a FY Sales forecast of £80m rather than the £105m published two weeks back ?

[kibes] 12/8/2008 08:37

Still not ready to short this. It will at least have another go at 550p before the final crash in my opinion. And in view of the shorting interest there seems to be in the stock the crash may be a while coming yet. Every day it doesn't happen will force a few more to close. A lightly traded and heavily manipulated stock = big trouble.

[kristini2] 11/8/2008 21:25

Mr Cawkwell

Have you bought back those short positions yet? if not, many more to go?

[nickcduk] 11/8/2008 14:18

A trade print of 8000 shares were purchased at todays highs just after 10am this morning. I imagine that was someone being forced to close out a short position. Not been much interest since then thankfully. Market is definitely still in the hands of the bulls though. Other positions are being squeezed hard and that could trigger off some more closing of positions here.

I recall ARTA short squeeze. Remember taking a huge loss on positions which I started opening around 180p. Ended up closing the lot around 300p. Horrible situation to be. I don't think MNGS is being manipulated in the same way. Buyers in ARTA were throwing 50k market buy orders into the closing auction and letting the price spike up 20-30p. MNGS on the other hand looks as though a few too many shorters jumped on board and then struggled to close out.

[crystalclear] 11/8/2008 10:53

I think this is an old graph, as its URL is one I posted months ago. I don't know if the information in the graphs is regularly updated. But I showed that about 2/3 of the shares are accounted for by Morgan Stanley, Hermes, Linkstate and Lehman. So that means finding the private shares to close shorts could be quite difficult.

If 11% were shorted and (say, only for the sake of round figures) 33% are free float, then the shorters would have to persuade 1/3 of the free float to be given up. That's quite a lot, and why I am still long.

[chester] 11/8/2008 10:21

38% Fib retrace from the High to the recent low = 530p, we've spiked through and reversed. If it closes below 530p, it looks a negative to me and downside is likely.

[nickcduk] 11/8/2008 10:15

Lobbed out a few at 510 and 545p. Hopefully that will be the end of the bear squeezing for the time being. May take a little while longer before we get a sell off. Sentiment is pretty bullish and I don't expect much selling until that turns in the broader market.

[felix99] 11/8/2008 10:03

what warned off as in we won;t let you or warned off as in its going up so better stay clear.

All I can say to the MNGS directors who flogged at 343 is :-)