Manganese Bronze Share Discussion Threads

[crystalclear] 21/7/2008 15:00

Right, I'm in.

I fancied the TX4 being made and sold in China, and a saloon car too, but thought £8 or £9 per share was too high when Geely first announced what they were doing.
But at around £3 I think it's more reasonable and the Beijing olympics will help raise the profle. I don't know when that is, but it can't be that far off. I think Geely said they'd have some taxis ready in time.

The question is how big is the Chinese Taxi market going to be? I know the car market in China is expanding but I don't think they'll all be able to afford cars. There must be lots of Chinese that can only afford a Taxi to the train station when they go on their holidays.

[the analyst] 21/7/2008 14:06

If the company really are going to make 15% of their staff redundant, then things can't be looking very promising for the future, so the price rise is surprising

Seems to be taking a long time to get confirmation one way or the other on the matter, so I wonder what is happening?

[masurenguy] 21/7/2008 13:00

Looks like there are some games being played here. A 10% this morningrise on a volume of less than 20k !

Don't think that the incremental Toscafield addition of 264k shares out of a total of 6.64m is particularly significant either.

[typo56] 17/7/2008 21:26

I'm not sure if this has been posted before, from Auto Express.

[davidosh] 17/7/2008 17:41

I generally ask the cabbies a few questions too...Most are not planning anything at present regarding a new cab be it new or upgrading from an older TX2 to TX4. They nearly all moan about Mann & Overcharge though and I feel there is a very strained relationship there. I guess the cabbies would all be wishing they were short too....One way of getting their high service bills paid !!

[the analyst] 17/7/2008 17:27

Cheers David, thanks for the info.

I'm finally setting up a spread bet account to short the company, just need to get the funds in. Am still half expecting an rns and share price drop before I manage to fund the account and get the bet on, though...

Anyway, I have been swayed after doing a little research by talking to every London Black Cab driver I can whenever I take a trip (I live in London). Been asking about how many are buying new cabs. The question didn't get a positive response on any occasion I asked it.

I wonder if any of them thought it strange that someone was taking so much interest in listening to them?

[davidosh] 17/7/2008 16:57

The company would only confirm in talks with the unions. Maybe a director will be in tomorrow to give exact details although once again this must surely be price sensitive so should RNS

[the analyst] 17/7/2008 16:22

Ah, yes. How did that happen?

[domwilliams] 17/7/2008 16:21

Do you mean this article, the analyst?

[the analyst] 17/7/2008 15:50

BBC highlighting the difficulties London Cabbies are having

[the analyst] 17/7/2008 15:49

The share price is holding up rather well in light of these statements, which is quite surprising - either the article is not quite right or it simply hasn't reached the investing community yet. If it is true, then I agree, it really needs to be released through an rns. Anyone had any luck confirming it?

Worth looking at those quotes from their MD, Peter Shellock, they do look pretty dire:


"The economic conditions LTI faces today are very challenging. The credit crunch and resulting loss of confidence in the economy are having an adverse impact on our sales particularly in London.

"There is no evidence to suggest that economic conditions will improve in the midterm, therefore we need to take steps to protect LTI's financial position and ensure the company prospers in the future."

"We regret the need to consider any action of this kind but we have to take effective steps to safeguard the future of the company as a whole. We hope by undertaking this process now the company will be in better shape to improve its performance when the economy recovers."

[felix99] 17/7/2008 13:17

FD was away for a fortnight last week and no one else was available to talk so I was told . Said they were in a closed period eventhough I wasn;t after anything price sensitive - just wnated to understand how JV works

[davidosh] 17/7/2008 13:02

Where on earth are they likely to be able to sell any cabs around the world then ???

The date for agreement with the unions was the 14th so surely an RNS now is appropriate and not insensitive....they were happy quoting for the local paper.

Has anyone asked directors if they are making a statement ?

[structcred] 17/7/2008 12:55

Bit late to the discussion but re the Hong Kong / ex-pat nostalgia point - I spend a lot of time in HK and take a lot of cabs there, all the taxis run on LPG and as a result taxi journeys are v cheap there e.g. the meter starts at $16HKD (just over £1) and for a short trip within the island (which is what most ppl use them for during the day) I rarely pay more than $30HKD (£2), and the other major use is for commuting which even for a long (by HK standards) commute would not cost more than £6-8. Simply, a petrol or diesel vehicle would not be able to compete, it's totally unviable.

Disclosure: I hold a small short position in MNGS.

[uncle-bob] 17/7/2008 12:21

The article above is from 4th July. Is there another story out somewhere?

[macansy77] 17/7/2008 12:20

been following this with interest and selling slowly since 350, that newspaper article surely should've been an RNS if it's true (which it certainly looks to be). The article reads like a profit warning without the company actually having come out and said it to the market!! Very naughty of them..

[davidosh] 17/7/2008 11:49

No problem Uncle Bob. I know that a big investor has just seen the newspaper story flagged up and sold 10k so more will follow no doubt. The company should really put out an RNS if things are that bad in their view...not good to speak to the papers first !

It must be a difficult decision stockpiling finished cabs and holding second hand ones that are falling in price and still not selling too.. At some stage they may have to close off production altogether.

[uncle-bob] 17/7/2008 10:21

That rise today? I think it was me. I closed a small part of my short with IG, just £5 a point. Had to close £3 then £2, due to volume restrictions. It ticked up as soon as I was done.

Still short £35 / point. Still bearish. Just want to limit exposure to individual positions at the moment.

[felix99] 17/7/2008 10:08

confirmation of job losses and seems to be a bit of comment about sales ?

[davidosh] 16/7/2008 12:31

Nah ....I am saying that in their marketing and sales dreamy heads they think buyers will want them as they will stand out from the local cabs. The fact they will cost 50% more and not bring in the extra punters tells me they have it wrong or at least will not be proven correct in substantial numbers beyond a small trial size of cabs.

[felix99] 16/7/2008 12:11

Why would an Expat want to flag a Black cab ?

When your in middle of whatever street in a city and you need a cab you just flag first thing you see don;t you.? Are you saying if a Merc taxi and a PEugot Taxi went past you would not flag em down in Hong Kong but instead wait for an iconic black cab to turn up ? :-)

[davidosh] 16/7/2008 11:46

I do not think it was China where they expected the real demand more in countries where expats and locals see British as popular and iconic ie. Hong Kong but certainly not so sure the numbers will be so great.

If brokers are to downgrade and reduce expectations it will be after the interims on 31 July

[felix99] 16/7/2008 11:28

Well its always possible. China has roaring cost inflation like rest of world but they have pretty steep wage inflation as well. Seems to me the brokers might trim profit forecasts for China going forward as I bet whatever the cost of building a cab was when they signed the JV its gone up a good few % since.

Indeed I read somewhere that in next few years China will be as expensive to produce as anywhere else as their labour costs and standard of living catch up with everywhere else.

I think many company;s will leave China as the quality has always been dodgy but its price differntial was so huge you had to set up there. Might not be the case soon but I guessyou will need a chinese factory if you want to supply China itself .

[davidosh] 16/7/2008 10:16

If they are having problems in China then that really would be the last crutch taken away !