Lightwaverf Share Discussion Threads

[clocktower] 14/6/2017 12:55

Nothing suspect about it at all sinkyj but I think you will agree that some took it that they had supplied £500k of goods in April, if you revisit several posts on this thread. Some might have assumed they might repeat that in May - June etc.

Do you not think it crossed the minds of whom ever wrote those words. They could have said "we have delivered £500k of goods in " or "we have fulfilled orders to the value of £500k" or dozens of other ways of saying that but they choose "Invoiced" Hmmm

Still, I will leave you for the time being to ponder while I attend to other investments.

If you followed PSL at all, you may remember how they announced a large order only to supply part of it and then never got paid.

[sinkyj] 14/6/2017 09:49

Not sure anybody is or has suggested that they've been paid for yet. That is the struggle a small business has in supplying major retailers. They can kill you. Fortunately, Lwrf are very unlikely to be supplying Screwfix direct they have ERA as buffer. I still don't understand what is suspect, amusing or incorrect about saying you have invoiced 500k goods in April.

[clocktower] 14/6/2017 09:10

Sorry but I have to chuckle sinkyj about the Screwfix situation - They may well have been invoiced and paid for but I doubt it - as you know many if not most large retailers rely on supplies cash for a long periods of time - they tend not to pay for goods for 60-90 days after delivery - and at a discount - the suppliers in many cases tend to finance these deals through invoice discounting arrangements, as I guess you are well aware.

I am not knocking LWRF and wish it every success but these days I assume nothing and read the words that directors use very carefully.

We will see how HRN performs compared to LWRF over the next couple of months as it is my view they are also on the right track - Toot Toot. :-)

[sinkyj] 14/6/2017 08:38

You are correct, how the cash flows in the transaction has a different arrangement to the paperwork, the word used was invoiced.

Never the less from China->LWRF->Era->Screwfix is quite a supply chain and if the goods are on the shelves in Screwfix in June then they were ordered, invoiced and delivered from LWRF sometime ago and the likely reason for April's uplift.

[clocktower] 14/6/2017 08:03

Very fair comment sinkyj and it is clear you also understand the general import arrangements but many deals are done by Letter of Credit and no up front payment is made, as was the case when I was importing, and well done.

JMF69 - You are wrong but I care not a hoot if you have any time for my posts and yes it is wise to take them with a pinch of salt, as they are often posted to provoke discussion. Good Luck with your holding.

[sinkyj] 14/6/2017 07:04

CT, Well done, ramping hmmmm, you're better placed to comment than I am on such matters. It's more fuel to my argument that there can't be much of the 13p left (not even mine), so next time we hit high 20's there could be breakthrough to higher levels.

Surprising question about the 500k. Reminder, this is a business supplying imported goods to large UK retailers. I don't see any wheeze. For the benefit of the board :-

The exact phrase was "The current order book is GBP1.1 million, following invoicing of over GBP500,000 in April"

Translation : Our Order book was 1.6 million, we invoiced 500k in April so now it is 1.1Million. Yes, invoiced doesn't mean supplied, but invoicing implies goods available and to be delivered in a defined timeframe.

Typical import terms from China are 40/40/20. 40 Deposit on order, 40 on shipping and 20 30 days after deliver. LWRF claims to have zero capital model, so likely deposits could be even higher depending on the terms they have with their factory. Typical lead times are 12-16 weeks, longer sometimes (LWRF state in figures they are having to hold higher buffer stocks). So invoicing April for June/July/August delivery, some from stock, some manufactured to order.

A previous post this month states Screwfix are doing a 3 page spread on LightwaveRF products in their latest mailing. Screwfix are the fastest growing part of the Kingfisher(B&Q) group, they've moved rapidly from mail order only, to 210 stores. For a promotion, 210 stores need stock. My best guess is April is now higher monthly run plus a stocking order from Screwfix for their summer promotion. That is obviously just my educated guess, if not Screwfix then certainly a stocking order from somewhere. Given the way LW have delivered on previous order-books a 1.1M order book implies 200-300K a month sales at very best, likely the lower end.

Does that mean May/June/July will also be 500K?, probably not. Is there any wheeze?, no, just normal business and picking out the highlights for the half year report.

For what it's worth I don't see a forward order book as that useful a metric without a corresponding metric of expected lead time. It's 1.1 million, is that the next quarter's orders, half year? By not delivering and invoicing product, the order book goes up. The true test is how these stocking orders sell through, and on into repeat orders. At the moment we've had a jump from 1 to 2 million (approx) sales, we need to be seeing 4 million+ levels soon in repeated monthly orders for the business to have "delivered".

[jmf69] 13/6/2017 23:42

From experience I can say clocktower comments mirror his position. Bullish if he holds and bearish if he doesn't. Have no time for the guy and take everything he posts with a pinch of salt and always dyor. Imho gla

[clocktower] 13/6/2017 22:16

I hope you are right one and all but I am happy with the outcome of my investments with Lightwaverf - a couple of good hits to date and who knows when the CEO ramps it to get the share price up, to have another funding I might join the bulls on a swift and short run before I head the other way.

At the moment I have turned my attention to the railways and a possible recovery situation Hornby - HRN - so we will see how that goes, in addition to a few other interesting plays bedsides a bit of day trading here and there, from time to time.The retail sector is a must for those that want to short stocks imo .

I wish the company well but they still have issues the way I see it and I would rather see you all profit and miss the boat having sold part from the rights issue on the first jump and the balance on the second, down to just above current levels.

I look forward to the CEO`s ramping (his own words) and those of Yellow Jersey whom they employ, not to forget the house brokers,that will suck you in and blow you out if not careful.

So, sinkyj what was you view of that wheeze about invoicing £500k in April?

[kevc09] 13/6/2017 19:37

JMF69 The new Android app is in beta testing and is a total overhaul with many long overdue improvements.

[bentley43] 13/6/2017 19:27

Sinkyj I concur with all your thoughts and am extremely excited for the future of this young company.
Andrew's line about the best kept secret that's all about to change to me says it all.
Investing is all about timing and now is the time to invest in LWRF.

[sinkyj] 13/6/2017 19:21

My take on the current situation is Apple has seen what a major draw the connected speakers and voice input has been to the public.

Amazon and google need virtually no process to connect any third party products to their cloud infrastructure. Apple had no product, they've resolved that and with the usual Apple twist they wlll have better sound quality and probably Sonos style multi room playing. Apple had major barriers to get developers connected, they are rapidly dismantling those barriers to try and scramble and get an supported infrastructure in place before their Homepod comes along at Christmas.

This is only good news for lightwaveRF and should they get their products tested ,released and reliable by September time, I can see the possibility of joint promotions and advertising at Christmas. There really aren't that many offerings of such scope from other UK manufacturers. If the Christmas promotion went well then it could even lead to exclusivity for the right sums.

Lots of "if's" there and I know what CT will say. But I'm liking what I am hearing from Andrew Pearson. Lots of talk about the products being right before they are released. A flawless Apple product launch is essential.

[sinkyj] 13/6/2017 19:01

Just a reminder again re Apple. The article makes no difference to the Lightwave Apple certification process, in fact it makes it easier to put the products into manufacture as the dreaded Apple key IC is no longer needed (It did have a very long lead time)



16:45
....."They [Apple] have a certification process and they are testing our products"......"If that testing process is finished tomorrow the time horizon is close, if it's finished in July then its further away"

[bentley43] 13/6/2017 18:53

Why the negative view clocktower I thought you were a fan for me I have never felt more confident in my investment and the path ahead.
I guess that's what makes the market opposing views.

Competition is healthy and the big players are advertising for us.

Committed Capital and Andrew Pearson will make this company a success the stock has far more of a chance of new highs from here than retreating back to 15p.

I would suggest if you don't buy back now you will watch the price go up and up and never buy as human nature wont allow you to having missed the bottom entry level.

[sinkyj] 13/6/2017 18:48

I'd never have guessed you had sold CT, not a clue from your posts!

Few problems with your statements:


Philips etc are already approved for Homekit and have been for sometime, this process change is for the smaller startups and makers to create one off innovative prototypes that maybe later lead to products.

Link2 Was already being designed with the Apple Key IC in, it had to be. In fact it's actually in the Apple approvals process as the CEO said in his interview. The news on this approval could be anytime.
This news means no extra delays at all. LW will have known. The new system is a software key, so they could no doubt use either. Apple still get their $1 per unit.

Other manufacturers still have to get their equipment approved by Apple if for general sale and have the same "Apple knows best" barrier to market.

[gozo] 13/6/2017 18:46

Each to their own clock - I'm suprised you're so negative though.

I'm looking at this stock with renewed optimism - voice control transforming the market, Apple approval being worked on, new motivated CEO and chairman both buying shares plus other directors including the FD putting their own hard earned cash in prior to the significant improved sales.

[clocktower] 13/6/2017 18:24

More delays more cost and worse still more competition from the like of Philips I expect, plus a whole host of other suppliers that can do catch-up now. I will be surprised if the stock does not soon sink towards 15p or maybe less again.

Yes, I am out for now but will be unlikely to buy back until such time as they seem to have turned the corner - if ever, with the way things are going - at least they seem to have stopped saying "Coming Soon" because I guess it Christmas is a long way off - and without saying which Christmas,

Good Luck.

[gozo] 13/6/2017 17:48

Interesting posts thanks.Hopefully the hardware redesign to Link 2 won't be too costly or time consuming.

[jmf69] 13/6/2017 15:02

Have they also released a new version of the android app?

[sinkyj] 13/6/2017 14:58

Another sign of Apple wanting to catch up Google and Amazon. Commercial products will still need to go though the Apple "approvals" process. A key change is the dropping of the requirement for equipment to have the Apple key chip, which needed a hardware redesign. The replacement is a software only encrypted key process that can probably be uploaded to some newer IOT hubs.

Lightwave could be understandably upset by this late change. However, I believe it is a sign of Apple determination to compete in this space. That can only be good for LightwaveRF as a supplier of Apple quality peripherals. They are in prime seat for any TV advertising, promotions and even exclusive deals Apple may want to do in the Uk to properly launch Homekit.

Looks like LW have changed gears on hiring too. There's every chance they may need to raise for bad or good reasons. Shareholder money is there to be invested though. I'd sooner it was spent on R&D and Sales force than seeing how long the directors can make it last amongst themselves.

[bentley43] 13/6/2017 14:02

hxxp://www.pocket-lint.com/news/141326-apple-homekit-spec-change-likely-to-see-river-of-new-products-flood-the-market

[clocktower] 13/6/2017 11:03

More overheads and seems to want to be involved with home sales, and only pay on sales - not going to be many that take up that offer imo.

[clocktower] 12/6/2017 14:16

B_I,
" The prerequisite for investing in any business trying to reshape the world — whether it is Arm or LightwaveRF — is having money to burn."

All pretty steady and it may well turn out to be burning more cash as I guess they would have trumpeted news of any decent size order. If they can deliver (Invoice*) £500k in one month (April) then the order book might have halved by now. Could be worrying, as the cash burn might start to accelerate again and mean another rights issue before to long.

*Invoice - most took it that LWRF had supplied £500k worth in April - all they did was send out invoices for that amount - it could include goods that had been supplied months before as well, maybe they agreed to accept payment even 6 months after delivery - hence only invoicing in April 2017.

When one looks at the words used, they maybe very misleading and likely to have been misunderstood by some upon reflection.

DYOR.