Kromek Share Discussion Threads

[abbynat] 27/7/2021 15:47

slightly miffed as its showing deja vu, with the price movement!

[fanramptastic mate] 27/7/2021 15:34

I dont think we will have to wait too long for news.

[davethechef] 27/7/2021 15:27

Looks like just a natural pullback after a few good days rises. May have further to drop. A few moved on for good I suspect.
Could do with an update on those trials sometime, in the not too distant to maintain further substantial rises.
But overall I'm pleased with uptick in interest recently; about time!?!

[b00mb0y] 27/7/2021 15:04

Any justification for this drop?

[strategicinvestor2] 26/7/2021 15:56

Nice to see strength in share price - as normal some short termers or people who need the liquidity sell. Could see a sharp spike up as we approach updates. Looking good. GLA

[b00mb0y] 26/7/2021 15:46

Looks like this tiny spike is done now. Next one in about 3 months if news is as good as we are lead to believe. Ah well.

[33mick] 26/7/2021 10:56

09:43, 25th July 2021

Just general comments by Zak with no mention of the bio detection range and impact in the company's future, but positive core business comments.


'Shares of Kromek (KMK) rose 8%, ending the week at 6 months highs near 20p. Earlier this month the worldwide supplier of detection technology focusing on the medical, security screening and nuclear markets, announced its final results for the year ended 30 April 2021. This showed revenue for the second half was 26% above the first half, with momentum continuing post year end. Kromek has been boosted by new contract wins such as the first commercial order from a security screening OEM customer, meaning that the company is on track to deliver its highest ever annual revenue for the full year to 30 April 2022.'

[strategicinvestor2] 26/7/2021 09:49

Yes - with news flow expected this is an exciting share to hold. I expect some holders will sell in coming days but may well regret.

[aqc888] 26/7/2021 09:35

If it’s the same as last time Simon Thompson tipped Kromek - definitely.

History repeating itself?

Last Simon Thompson tip after the Friday print edition came out the price ended Monday at 17.75 a further 5% rise. By the end of that week it reached by the following week it reached a further 32% rise.
Today is the Monday after the print edition and we see another 5% rise. Could there be a further 30% rise by the end of the week again?!!

[strategicinvestor2] 26/7/2021 08:37

Looks a good time to top up ahead of stream of news due.

[aqc888] 25/7/2021 17:54

The question with Kromek will be...

Is Kromek a 20p company based on their existing product offering. Without the biological pathogen detector.

Or

Is Kromek a £1 + company. Based on successful trial results in the coming months of the biological pathogen detector. Results the CEO and Simon Thompson have already called a successful pilot.

Selling at 25p doesn’t make a whole load of sense to me.

[aqc888] 25/7/2021 17:16

I agree Mick. The old system DARPA are using is completely outdated compared with what Kromek could have achieved here. Huge potential in so many settings for this detector.

Kromek with their 2year head start on the competition (started work in 2018). With their various patented intellectual property the CEO and ST speak of. Plus Kromek having secured £10m worth of government research funding for the biological pathogen detector (funds that won’t be available to competitors). All of this give Kromek a huge first mover advantage. Their competitive advantage or “economic moat” as Warren Buffet would put it should be substantial. Glad I increased Kromek to 10% of my portfolio a few weeks ago. Hopefully plenty more rises to come.

Worst case scenario - the biological pathogen detector results are a failure. In this case Kromek have already secured 75% of this years sales in the radiation, hospital scanner and security screening business. Any future sales of the biological pathogen detector aren’t priced into the share price and government funding paid for all of the R&D. So perhaps the share price falls on the disappointment.

Best case scenario- Kromeks main products continue to perform well and the biological pathogen detector sales eclipse the rest of the business with the huge global demand successful trial results will certainly bring. In this case scenario a £1 valuation for Kromek would be an extraordinarily undemanding valuation, given 1years profit from the biological pathogen detector could equal Kromeks entire market cap. Very exciting weeks ahead. I can anticipate a lot of turbulence in the share price in the coming weeks before the pathogen detector results are due (coming months according to ST). Some shareholders will see the sharp rise in the share price and won’t be able to resist banking the profits. Doing this before the positive results are released by the independent NHS lab will be a big mistake.

[33mick] 25/7/2021 15:52

Just re- reading an old article about BD21, which was supposed to replace the expensive and labour intensive BioWatch Filter/collect/send to lab/replace filter/wait 24-36 hours system now in place on US metros.

Which is on hold now..

"McDonnell, who heads Homeland Security’s office of countering weapons of mass destruction, said the new system, called BioDetection 21, will be faster and more reliable than BioWatch. He said he hopes to put as many as 9,000 new detection devices in place by 2025."


Los Angeles Times-

BY DAVID WILLMAN
FEB. 15, 2019 3 AM PT



My maths might be a bit off..but .

9000 × 20,000 dollars per unit? = 180,000,000

This would have no doubt have an ?? Ongoing Data/maintenance/service contract on top of the installation contract.

Just makes you think a little about the potential here for just one of the many stated & wanted requirements.

The UK and many European govs would more than likely follow suit after the tech is seen to be robust and operational.

.

[fanramptastic mate] 24/7/2021 22:06

good shout

Investors Chronicle. January to December 2020. Circulation (average per issue). 30,967 ·

[strategicinvestor2] 24/7/2021 19:24

I think Investors Chronicle sells over 30,000 copies so a lot more people should see the story here as they read and research over this weekend…

[aqc888] 24/7/2021 11:30

If the results to the biological pathogen detector are positive, which they should be, given ST already says in his article that the pilot was successful... then given that there is currently no competition in the market... and given that the global demand for such a machine will be immense. I can’t help but think the £25m annual forecast profit by Hill at Equity Development is extraordinarily pessimistic. Each unit will sell for £20,000 - with a £5,000 profit analyst Hill forecasts. However Kromek make a significantly larger 52per cent gross margins on their other sales. I’d imagine Kromek would have kept the same margin when pricing the detector at £20,000. So the £25m annual profit forecast could be significantly higher. Secondly producing 96 machines a week seems to be a very low estimate given how much demand globally there would be for the machine. Sales would be limited by how many they manage to produce - I wonder how plentiful the supply of components for the machine, such as these nanopores are. Anyhow IF it really does work I could imagine the £25m annual profit forecast possibly tripled. Which remembering today’s Kromek market cap is £85m, I’d say this share price rally has significantly further to go. Let’s hope those trial results are good!

[b00mb0y] 23/7/2021 17:16

ThTs ok, davethechef. It’s what happens from here now. This is, and has been, a tough share to call/predict since IPO. come on KMK. Onwards and upwards.

[davethechef] 23/7/2021 15:31

Well I got today's share price performance totally wrong lol!?!
Held up very strongly & some large buy!
Impressive & must be on substantially more P.I's radar by now after three good days

[aqc888] 23/7/2021 14:07

I suspect there will be a few big buys at the very end of the day by whoever is building a position

[aqc888] 23/7/2021 13:49

No way I’m going to be out of the market on the day those results are out...

[aqc888] 23/7/2021 13:42

Too close the the release of the detector results to start jumping in and out...

[aqc888] 23/7/2021 12:05

Lots more repeat buys of 100,000 & 150,000 today.

[33mick] 23/7/2021 11:11

YWDiS,
Lots of info scattered around here,
but 2 Covid+ varients prototypes built in ongoing trials and NHS lab performance testing happeing as we speak, so should be good news on that soon.
The full DARPA units are WiP - work in progress but news seems very encouraging, as it appears from researching around the. UK Gene sequence platform - can detect anthrax and most if not all other pathogens with appropriate software which is DARPAs primary remitt I believe + in very quick time compared to existing other platforms and very very cost effective.

[abbynat] 23/7/2021 09:52

mmm, as its in blue, i'm thinking shall i sell or wait this time! is this the real next phase or is it just the usual annual temporary tick up?
decisions, decisions.

[ywdis] 23/7/2021 09:18

Very good post Mick. Has the design phase been completed ?