Kier Share Discussion Threads

[wallywoo] 02/6/2021 08:39

I remember Interserve and Carillion having a similar EPS. The trouble with this figure is that it still doesn't mean that the company is generating any cash.That's the key in this sector. BlackRock are a hedge fund, they reduced 6 months ago but are adding today. Usually that continues for a while when they have a company in their sights.

[petersw1] 02/6/2021 08:33

Seems to me that BlackRock reduced their short from 0.58% to 0.51%. They are also have a long position of 5.85% that is expected to grow to 6.07% through the raise.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 02/6/2021 08:01

But do note the projected EPS - if debt is not a concern (and it's far less of a concern than it was), then EPS of 20p or so is pretty cheap.

Which is why I am interested, although as I note, I know cheaper...

[wallywoo] 02/6/2021 07:56

Good post imastu, if you added tangible net assets to it Costain's would be just over £100m while Kier's will be (-£300m) ish. IMO of evaluating construction companies this is the most important thing when deciding whether a company can generate cash in the future. Short positions are beginning to add here BlackRock are increasing. It will be interesting to see how that changes in the short term.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 02/6/2021 07:02

Peter - at the risk of another snarling (although we have kissed and made up), the link below projects my view of potential EPS and valuation (with a sector comparator, which was not popular):





Meant, honestly, in the spirit of constructive discussion about the investment prospect.

[ontheforks] 02/6/2021 06:39

All quite on the western front gixxer we're just carrying on as normal waiting for the inevitable "Royal visit" that's when we'll get a better picture of things to come lol good luck to yaself and all longs 👍🏻

[petersw1] 01/6/2021 22:51

Wally, just been having a look back at your posts on Carillion and Interserve. Good on you for getting out of Carillion before it turned really bad. Sounds like you took a fair hit in Interserve though. Maybe part of you is genuine in wanting to help fellow investors not take a similar hit.

I see Kier as a turnaround play, perhaps similar to how you saw Interserve. It doesn't have a huge safety margin and has some work to do to be seen as a safer investment, but to my eyes the market knows that and has been pricing it accordingly. The market is always going to be more concerned with the current position and the future. So all that you keep posting about the past 5 years (whether it is twisted a bit or not) has increasing less value with each new bit of news.

Yes, if Kier were to stop being a going concern than all that goodwill on the balance sheet would evaporate along with the other intangibles and leave shareholders with nothing and the lenders hurting. Without some major bad news, that isn't going to happen though. Kier has time to prove itself before needing to refinance.

A simplistic bull case is to take management at their word and believe they will hit their mid term targets:
o Revenue: £4.0 - 4.5bn
o Adjusted operating profit margin: c. 3.5%
o Cash conversion of operating profit: c. 90%
o Balance sheet: Sustainable net cash position with capacity to invest
o Dividend: Sustainable dividend policy with dividend cover of around three times earnings.

That implies an adjusted EPS
£4,000,000,000*3.5%/446165699 = 31p

In such a case, without too many exceptional items then £3 would seem cheap.

How much will they lose from exceptional items? How successful overall will they be in working towards those targets? Will there be some major bad news?

I don't know, but I'm happy to buy as much as I can get at 85p and see how it goes.

[gixxer1] 01/6/2021 20:53

@ontheforks. Hope all the guys and gals from KL are ok on day 1 under the new regime.

[easy45] 01/6/2021 19:23

Says it all then Wally!!

[wallywoo] 01/6/2021 18:52

Lol never had the pleasure, I suspect you will all be deadwood in 2/3 years. On your logic I worked for Carillion and Interserve too? Or perhaps I am just a investor who has identified why numerous construction companies have been terrible investments and letting others know?


Why don't you work for a efficient builder?, One that has some assets and makes money??

[easy45] 01/6/2021 18:20

Wally Wally Wally the poor Sacked ex-Kier Employee, "Deadwood" the new Management described you all!!

[wallywoo] 01/6/2021 17:13

Lol what facts are you giving Stdy??


With -£516m net tangible assets now, it is likely that Kier will have around -£300m net assets after the equity issue.


That's less assets than any builder in the sector by about £400m and £150m less assets than at June 19, when the share price fell massively.


That means Kier will struggle to compete and most likely continue to lose cash.


Any real pi (who owned shares in kie) would care about those facts. Why don't you????

[ontheforks] 01/6/2021 16:39

Wally your posts make no sense you continually discredit yourself when quizzed about your statements you conviniently switch the subject ignore the question then play the victim you sound like a narcissist I think your deliberately trying to get filtered in some vain attempt to carry on claiming the moral high ground incase anyone actually takes financial advice from these boards

[wallywoo] 01/6/2021 14:36

Lol, Peter. Attacking the person not the facts they present. And denying the existence of paid rampers, even though there are many news articles that say otherwise!!


What a surprise!!! Yawn!

[petersw1] 01/6/2021 14:27

I find your talk of paid rampers nonsense. Your lack of integrity in your posts is what discredits you. It was your choice to post positions that you now say you were being "economical with the truth" about. It was also your choice to promise to apologise "if it rallies above 100".

[wallywoo] 01/6/2021 13:49

Lol, not at all Peter. It's a paid rampers strategy to ask what stake a cynic has in a company they don't like the look of. That makes them easier to discredit and bully. So you have to play the game.


Apart from that, unlike other posters, I post facts assets, debt, potential problems and past similar companies (to compare against) That's all you need to know to label Kier as extremely high risk.


My facts annoy paid rampers because they are true, you can't dismiss them. That's why I get you all trying to attack / discredit the person instead. It's a interesting process and one I fully understand after going through it with Jarvis, Carillion and Interserve as well as 2 years on here. Of course none of these companies have ever made investors a dime in the medium term, but funny enough rampers never mention that. History repeats, Kier will last a little longer and lose more money for investors (more similar to Jarvis now than the others) but it's the balance sheet weakness ensures this is likely not me.

[ontheforks] 01/6/2021 13:28

You forgot wally being economical with the truth works both ways you've made some big statements and people have read both sides of the argument here they've also seen that some posters are not what they seem.... On another note just sorted my shares out 6682 @85p currently £1.15 hhhhmmm what to do what to do... Good luck longs 👍🏻

[sparty1] 01/6/2021 12:14

lol, expensive hobby..
Bathboy on your team now.

[wallywoo] 01/6/2021 11:18

Lol, oh I have made plenty of money shorting this, just not necessarily when I posted them on here.


There are 2 issues on this BB, dealing with paid rampers and actually trading it to make money. Sometimes to handle the one (who will say anything to ramp the shares and bully off cynics) you have to be economical with the truth of how you trade them (johnbuythelosers ramping that he has bgt the share 24 times over 16 month springs to mind)..

Because Kier have issued 459 percent more shares in 2.5 years, this BB is infested with paid rampers trying to generate interest and demand. It's laughable that a share BB that has issued so many shares and fallen so much without generating any cash won't accept cynical posters.


If you can't get rid of them, you might as well have fun with them.


As far as Kier's future as a investment, it's extremely high risk with a very high valuation given they are a serial disappointer in a terrible sector and still very low in capital. There's little chance the share price will rise in the short or medium term and could fall hard with so many shares in issue.

[ontheforks] 01/6/2021 09:32

Poor investment or not wally the only people to lose money on here are the ones who listen to you to claim you've lost no money on the shorts you opened either show your a liar or you list end to people on here and closed them at a loss either way you have no credibility on here at all now good luck longs 👍🏻

[pl dil] 01/6/2021 07:46

Wish someone would kick you down the road.

[wallywoo] 01/6/2021 07:20

Forks, it has nothing to do with the kl business and 99.9 percent of investors are not employees in the share scheme. The reason why Kier is a poor investment is it's balance sheet is too poor and costs are too high.


It will have roughly (-£300m) net tangible assets after the equity issue. That's not enough for such a large company. I am being generous here since H2 cash spend and debt restructuring costs it could be much worse. It will be roughly £200m less assets than after the last RI, where we all know what happened.

I have no axe to grind here apart from stating that. The country is littered with builder's in administration. It is always for the same reasons. £241m equity issue was as large as possible, but this business will still disappoint (they needed around £500m to have a good chance). It is under capitalised. The latest equity issue is just kicking the can down the road.