Kier Share Discussion Threads

[soulected] 13/5/2021 10:22

The record date has passed, so surely people are selling as they know they can buy them back cheaper?Record Date for entitlements under the 5.00 p.m. on 12 May Open Offer 2021

[johnbuythedips] 13/5/2021 10:12

Yes.
I have just given some of mine back to those arriving to the party late. It’s a no brainier. I would have thought this price is artificial for now bit will fly past this in no time - it will pull back though so be careful. Hopefully I sold some to Wally and Zico getting out LOL
What a fantastic day.

[1224saj] 13/5/2021 10:04

That's cool, it moves my average to 0.93p if I take up the offer, no brainer :-)

[gerhart] 13/5/2021 10:04

Is it possible some of the buying today is just due to peeps getting rights to discount shares that will inevitably be dumped? So share price movement a bit misleading today.

But longer term today will lead to a much better place.

[dasty1] 13/5/2021 10:00

Don't worry about Wally. He'll pop up shortly claiming his average short price is now miraculously £1.80 or something like that...

[johnbuythedips] 13/5/2021 09:51

The whole world and his dog want a piece of Kier.
Well done Sir Andrew, it looks like you may well have just pulled this off.
GLA

[typo56] 13/5/2021 09:50

Shorts gooing to get squeezed. This is diultion but not the level of dilution some (including me) expected few weeks ago. According to my sums, if existing holders take up the basic open offer they're only being diluted by about 32% by the firm placees.

[johnbuythedips] 13/5/2021 09:22

Any short still gambling on a price drop is an absolute amateur and deserves all they get.

[easy45] 13/5/2021 09:17

And up she goes, told ya so WALLY

[typo56] 13/5/2021 09:16

The firm placing and placing and open offer are fully underwritten. The underwriters' risk appetite likely determined the 85p issue price. I think it reasonable to assume they're not completely stupid and if they felt there was a serious risk of the issue bombing they wouldn't have agreed to doing it at 85p. The bookbuild for the placings should be completed this morning.

[johnbuythedips] 13/5/2021 09:13

Zico?
Are you out yet. You will never see 78p again.
Would be interested to hear your thoughts.
John BUY THE DIPS

[gerhart] 13/5/2021 08:49

Sometimes it takes a 2nd or 3rd day for the smoke signals of news to filter through to people who, like a lot of us, don't view boards all day. But at moment share price is holding up extremely well.

That might influence others, who don't get shares in the book build today, whether to buy or not in the market. Though as always, some of these and the RI shares, might be dumped for a small profit. So will probably be a while yet before we see final price stability. Then, hopefully a steady long term increase.

All the best to all. Sorry to shorters, but I think this is a lost cause for you guys - certainly for now.

[pric9447] 13/5/2021 08:49

Called that one wrong, took me by surprise but overall quite happy with it.

[typo56] 13/5/2021 08:46

They go ex-entitlement tomorrow. As I understand it, anyone short at close tonight risks being taken up against for the open offer shares at 85p.

Buyers today should qualify for the open offer.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 13/5/2021 08:44

(Updated from the weekend)

...............................Number...........Price.....Market Cap
...................................................£.............£'m

Current number of shares..........162............1.00............146
New shares .......................284............0.85............241

New no. of shares / Market Cap....446

So a pro-forma comparison if that happens - assuming 90p for the KIE share price – new and old shares, and taking the forward projection (by COST) for year end cash for COST of £80m (31.12.20 was over £100m) would be:

................................KIE....................COST

Share price....................0.90....................0.58
Market Cap .....................401.....................167

Financial Debt at 31.12.20......436
Delayed Tax......................50
Trade Finance...................110
Cash raised....................(229)
KL sale....................... (100)

Net debt / (cash)...............267.....................(80)

Enterprise Value................668......................80

So while KIE’s market cap would be a little over double that of Costain, its Enterprise Value (the cost to a potential acquirer – i.e. debt + market cap) would be over 8 times as high. Very different.

Projecting forward earnings:

................................KIE....................COST

Turnover......................4,000...................1,200
Margin.........................3.0%....................3.5%
PBT.............................120......................42
Tax............................ (30)..... ..............(11)
PAT..............................90......................32
Number of shares................446.....................275
EPS(p).........................20.2p...................11.5p

Debt post raise ................267.....................(80)
M/C post raise..................401.....................160
EV post raise...................668......................80
Number of shares................446.....................275

PE ratio.......................4.46....................4.98
E/V : Profit ratio.............7.42....................2.44

(ratios above using share prices of 90p and 58p respectively)

So, just my view – if the assumptions above happen:

Very similar earnings ratios would be the picture. Which basically justifies the current share price for KIE.

Also noteworthy (I think) that KIE’s enterprise value to profitability ratio will still be nearly 3 times higher than Costain’s. A private equity suitor would certainly be noting that, even if the stock market doesn’t (yet).

[imastu pidgitaswell] 13/5/2021 08:39

They've done well - I think with a little help from their friends - to get the share price and get this away. It does remove the fundamental uncertainty that was here, and thankfully means they will not now go bust - which would not be good for the sector. The banks are onside - as they had to be for this to proceed, and indeed the banks were driving it as the use of the proceeds shows.

It's also at the upper end of expectation in terms of quantum (and it needed to be) with less dilution than it might have been.

It's now valued (along with the usual COST comparison) as below - not (for me) particularly compelling, but not wildly expensive either. It should just revert to being a dull and boring infrastructure company - so I'm pleased for the employees.

Next stop is £2 billion market cap, as I understand it? 😎

[this_is_me] 13/5/2021 08:29

The share price was around 45p 6 months ago and now the placing price is 85p. That shows how well things have improved and that the company can be released from the debt burden without having a debt for equity swap.

Unfortunately I didn't manage to get back in under 50p but I'm sitting on a nice profit and intend to buy more at 85p.

[gixxer1] 13/5/2021 08:25

Whilst I don't post on here often, I view this board every day; it does make me smile and shake my head. There is no issue with HS2 despite what people think. I am long and happy and not worried about my job. How's things with your side of the business OntheForks, are the guys and gals ok?

[johnbuythedips] 13/5/2021 08:25

and I give you a clue - you won't be getting them for what I can get them for LOL

[johnbuythedips] 13/5/2021 08:23

Wally - you got thrown out of last chance saloon this morning.
Use this pull back in the share price to get out of your imaginary shorts - like I told you at 50/60 and 70 pence.

[wallywoo] 13/5/2021 08:15

Lol, well good luck with that. 174 percent more shares will be issued, IF this placing is successful. If you understand demand and supply you should know what that means.That's a huge dilution. Kier are experts in issuing paper for cash. The share price will be low for years to come. And still it is very unlikely they will ever pay a dividend.

[johnbuythedips] 13/5/2021 08:14

What a shame we didn't take Wally up on his placing LOL
He was giving the market shares at 50p!!!!!!!and he still has them.

Wally - you are embarrassing yourself now. It's a new chapter by the looks of it now for Kier and the share price is not even going to get anywhere near the levels you sold at - I say this with confidence.

[gerhart] 13/5/2021 08:02

I don't comment much, but think you will be rong here Wally. Still a lot to play for but as John says it's the "bad news" out - now we move on. And maybe it does explain the odd forward movement in the share price over last few days.

Remember Sky reported that Hinds may have been tied up in placing with sale of Living. Maybe he even influenced final decision on price?

I think when the dust settles we will be in a much, much better place. But a few bumps and some turbulence to come!

[johnbuythedips] 13/5/2021 07:54

It's as good as done Gerhart. This will explain the strength in the share price over the last few weeks. That surprised me regarding the bookbuild too.
Unless I am mistaken this is going to be good for Kier. It's like a big weight being lifted for investors, clarity is all that was needed.

[wallywoo] 13/5/2021 07:54

Yes you are reading it wrong. The firm placing is underwritten but no investors yet.The underwriters will have a massive runt placing at a much lower price later.