Jpmorgan Russian Securit... Share Discussion Threads

[loganair] 18/4/2022 15:17

The MOEX Russian slipped 0.7% to around 2,408 on Monday after falling 6.5% last week, as the risk of new western sanctions on Russia for its unrelenting attack in Ukraine continued to weigh on the markets.

Tensions grew over the weekend as Ukrainian soldiers resisted a Russian ultimatum to lay down arms in the pulverized port of Mariupol, while the Ukrainian Foreign Minister said there had been no recent diplomatic communications between the two countries. EU governments said last week the bloc’s executive was drafting proposals to ban Russian crude, but diplomats said Germany was not actively supporting an immediate embargo.

Energy stocks declined, led by Gazprom (-1.2%) and Lukoil (-2.1%). Russian banks also dragged the index, including Sberbank (-2.2%) and VTB (-1.4%). Elsewhere, Petropavlovsk jumped 3.5% after the company said it was considering putting itself up for sale in the wake of sanctions against Russia and the risk of countermeasures.

[fabius1] 18/4/2022 10:31

This might be of interest to those who keep an open mind.




As he points out at the end, where possible, check the facts for yourself.

[johnwise] 18/4/2022 08:10

Joseph Stalin starved millions to death - we must help Ukraine to stop it happening again: As Vladimir Putin uses famine as a weapon against the innocent, DOMINIC SANDBROOK recalls a powerful lesson from history

[wskill] 15/4/2022 19:12

What a good time to buy and of course by this point the war will be over.

[farrugia] 15/4/2022 19:09

the problem with this is that the vast majority of Russian quoted shares are held by foreigners! So much for the sanctions hurting Russians! But sadly when foreigners are allowed to sell in the local market there will be a massive sell-off.

[loganair] 15/4/2022 18:00

The MOEX Russia Index pared earlier losses to finish 0.8% higher at the 2,425 level on Friday, on course to snap five consecutive sessions of decline.

Financial shares led the rebound, with a 0.9% gain by Sberbank and 0.6% rise for VTB. Rosbank was 9.8% higher, extending its surge to 258% this week after it was sold by Societe Generale to Interros Capital, a firm linked to oligarch Vladimir Potanin.

The worsening geopolitical backdrop and threats of added sanctions pressured the index to close the week 6.5% lower.

[loganair] 15/4/2022 10:28

The MOEX Russia Index was 0.3% down to hover at the 2,400 level on Friday, the lowest since stock trading restarted from a month-long suspension on March 24th amid concerns of uncertainty in the face of sweeping sanctions.

Penalties from the West and sharp economic contraction since Russia’s invasion led firms across all sectors to suspend payment dividends, making investors flee to other securities with fixed income.

Petropavlovsk shares plunged 16.9% after it announced it may put itself up for sale amid difficulties of finding clients and servicing debt. The gold miner lost its main client and had its assets frozen after the UK sanctioned Gazprombank.

Severstal shares dropped 2.4%, extending its decline after postponing its dividend payout decision. The mining giant has also defaulted on its $12.6 million Eurobond last month. The main banks also traded lower, with VTB and Sberbank both falling around 1.3%.

[loganair] 14/4/2022 17:25

The MOEX Russia Index plunged 4.9% to end at 2,405 on Thursday, the lowest close since stock trading re-opened from a month-long suspension on March 24, amid concerns of prolonged conflict and added sanctions.

Investors fled to other forms of fixed income securities after sweeping Western sanctions led firms across all sectors to refuse to pay dividends.

Energy stocks were among the biggest losers, as European countries continue to look for oil and gas imports elsewhere. Gazprom fell 5.4% and Lukoil tumbled 4.4%, while Novatek shares plunged over 8%. Meanwhile, Polymetal extended yesterday’s decline to drop 5.6% after it announced it postponed its dividend payout decision. Severstal lost 3.7% in the session, also delaying its decision after having defaulted on its $12.6 million Eurobond in March.

[glavey] 14/4/2022 16:44

Thankfully Popit gives readers a summary of his research: "It is all nonsense."

[fabius1] 14/4/2022 14:18

Popit - In a word, politics. By the way, well done on following up with your research.

[loganair] 14/4/2022 13:57

JPMorgan Russian Securities PLC Ten Largest Investments

% OF TOTAL ASSETS As at: 28 February 2022

Gazprom ADR..............18.5%
Sberbank of Russia.......11.4%
Lukoil...................10.5%
Norilsk Nickel............7.3%
Rosneft...................5.7%
Halyk Bank3...............4.7%
Novatek...................3.4%
Kaspi.kz..................3.2%
Magnit....................3.0%
Gazprom Neft..............2.7%
------------------------------
Total....................70.3%

[popit] 14/4/2022 13:40

The prices JRS are using now are simply absurd nonsense. Russian investors are buying Gazprom on the Moex today for over £2 a share, and JRS have 15 million Gazprom shares and they are saying they are worthless. It is all nonsense.

[popit] 14/4/2022 13:25

listing as at close of business 28th February 2022

Holding Security Description Market Value % of Fund Security No.

15,491,328.000 GAZPROM 28,497,725.51 23.34% 4364928
16,810,961.000 SBERBANK OF RUSSIA 15,276,667.79 12.51% B56CB23
624,696.000 LUKOIL 14,140,543.81 11.58% 4560588
71,192.000 MMC NORILSK NICKEL PJSC COMMON STOCK RUB 1 9,829,942.20 8.05% 7131431
3,719,692.000 ROSNEFT OIL CO 7,614,060.08 6.24% B17KP48
842,766.000 HALYK SAVINGS BANK OF KAZAKHSTAN JSC GDR USD 6,356,468.87 5.21% B1KDG41
230,421.000 NOVATEK PJSC GDR USD 4,503,360.05 3.69% B0DK750
97,567.000 JSC KASPI.KZ GDR-REG S 4,362,973.83 3.57% BMXZ8G7
180,877.000 MAGNIT PJSC COMMON STOCK RUB 0.01 3,965,441.81 3.25% B1393X4
1,301,425.000 TATNEFT PJSC 3,153,905.52 2.58% 5452208
6,156,103.000 ROSTELECOM PJSC COMMON STOCK RUB 0.0025 3,022,430.68 2.48% 5004148
21,233,273,216.000 VTB BANK PJSC COMMON STOCK RUB 0.01 2,957,228.89 2.42% B1WMD67
169,819.000 YANDEX NV COMMON STOCK USD 0.01 2,399,678.27 1.97% B5BSZB3
4,003,270.000 DETSKY MIR PJSC COMMON STOCK RUB 0.0004 2,388,286.55 1.96% BYM4171
59,546.000 POLYUS PJSC GDR 2,383,171.43 1.95% BYXL3S6
4,198,000.000 UNITED CO RUSAL INTERNATIONAL PJSC COMMON STOCK HKD 0.656517 2,190,289.06 1.79% BNGCVV8
552,780.000 SEVERSTAL PAO GDR USD 2,121,719.44 1.74% B1G4YH7
365,735.000 NOVOLIPETSK STEEL PJSC GDR USD 2,094,781.85 1.72% B0RTNX3
65,502.000 NAC KAZATOMPROM JSC 1,432,818.14 1.17% BGXQL36
12,313,057.000 SISTEMA PJSFC COMMON STOCK RUB 0.09 1,101,095.21 0.90% B06K6Y9
432,517.000 MD MEDICAL GROUP INVESTMENTS PLC GDR USD 967,058.71 0.79% B8JZ5X9
75,226.000 TCS GROUP HOLDING PLC GDR 545,742.42 0.45% BF233S0
275,182.000 X5 RETAIL GROUP NV GDR USD 1 543,903.62 0.45% B07T3T9
577,525.000 FIX PRICE GROUP LTD GDR 241,038.95 0.20% BN30342

Total portfolio 122,090,332.69 100.00%


It looks from this like the full holding of 15 million Gazprom is in Moex shares. If it is GDR or ADR it will say it. Over 80% of the total portfolio value seem to be in Moex shares. So a total portfolio value of £120 million gives assets per share of £3. When the war is over it will be nearer £5. And in two years it will be nearer £10. So it is just a matter of waiting.

[soleman1] 14/4/2022 12:24

5% of value does seem absurdly cautious but if adr and gdr are being converted to moex how can they be valued at 0.3%? Oh well give it time I guess opportunities would never exist if valuations were always efficient.

[loganair] 14/4/2022 12:00

Popit - I understand as well as owning Gazprom ADR's JRS also own Gazprom shares quoted in Roubles directly on the MOEX.

[hopan] 14/4/2022 11:49

... possibly because there are capital controls and you cannot take the money out of the country. 5% is quite conservative but the market price it via JRS price as around 9-10%...
Tbh, it does not matter how JRS price it. It is a trust at the end of the day. What it matters is what the market thinks it is worth it.

[popit] 14/4/2022 11:42

In today’s RNS it says that JRS are valuing their Moex shares at 5% and their GDRs at less than 1%. Why are JRS using a valuation of only 5% for their Moex equities that are trading on the Moex today for 100% ? Why are they using such an absurdly low figure? Why not value them at 95% as it is much closer to the real figure? Or even 50% if they want to be very cautious. Where do they get 5% from?

And it says they own 15.4 million Gazprom shares at 28th February. Last time I looked at the holdings they had over 16 million Gazprom. How has the holding reduced? Have JRS been selling any of their holdings since the start of the war?

[hopan] 14/4/2022 11:42

"it's like Yeltsin's time all over again for the Russian oligarchs." ... I liked this expression :)

[comedy] 14/4/2022 11:35

Thanks bill, just checked can buy now

[biggest bill] 14/4/2022 11:18

Interactive investor is having a problem with buying all investment trusts today. It is probably a bug introduced in last night's update of their site.

[loganair] 14/4/2022 10:49

With my broker I have no problem in trading in JRS, POLY or POG if I wished to do so.

[comedy] 14/4/2022 10:38

Guys no longer able to trade these with interactive investor?
Says no kid/kiid document available?
Happened today?
Know who is trading it?
Thanks for any help

[wskill] 14/4/2022 10:04

So we have the fair value now as below pity you have to go around a few sites to get country amounts invested which was in Kaz in January 5%.


As at 12(th) April 2022, the Company's unaudited net assets, after the application of a fair value, were GBP17,777,555 and the breakdown as a percentage of unaudited net assets was as follows:

Companies listed in Kazakhstan: 69.2% (no fair valuation applied)

MOEX traded securities 5.2% (fair valuation applied based on 25(th) February

2022)

GDRs and ADRs 0.3% (fair valuation applied based on 2(nd) March 2022)

Russian securities traded on other international stock exchanges:

9.3% (no fair valuation applied)

Cash and cash equivalents held in US$ money market funds: 16.0% (no fair valuation applied)

.
Assets 31/01/2022 %
Stock 99.3
Cash 0.7
Country 31/01/2022 %
Russia 88.8
Kazakhstan 5.0
Netherlands 2.5
United States 1.3
Cyprus 1.0
United Kingdom 0.8

Holdings
TOP 10 Sector % of assets
Gazprom ADR Energy 18.5
Sberbank of Russia Financials 11.4
Lukoil Energy 10.5
Norilsk Nickel Materials 7.3
Rosneft Energy 5.7
Halyk Bank Financials 4.7
Novatek Energy 3.3
Kaspi Financials 3.2
Magnit Consumer Staples 2.9
Gazprom Neft Energy 2.7