Jpmorgan Russian Securit... Share Discussion Threads

[mister md] 01/4/2022 15:48

ii only allowing buys in small sizes - bit odd considering that presumably the institutions are still offloading ?

[mister md] 01/4/2022 15:36

Still slightly up on these. In fact added more today. Will sell the lot eventually, but definitely not at these levels - if it takes months to reach a fairer price level then so be it.

[bondholder] 01/4/2022 13:25

Fair point but using the Big Mac which is still same size 1991 1.25 gbp2022 3.75 gbpSo 22 equals 66 therefore Russia vastly better off

[loganair] 01/4/2022 13:11

Bond - Not only have prices risen, many of the same products have shrunk in size, including meals in restaurants and often the quality of the same product has gone down as well.

M&S ladies underwear, 2018 - 5 pairs in a packet for the same price today 4 pairs which is a 25% increase. in 2000 M&S clothing would often last me 5 to 8 years, the same items brought today not only cost 3 times as much they may if I'm lucky last me only a couple of years which means the price of my clothing has increased 6 times or 500% in the past 20 years.

Just watch Open all Hours and items that just cost pennies, admittedly in the mid to late 1970's and early 1980's cost 50p, 60p or 70p to day.

In 1991 in the UK the average price at the pumps for Diesel was 44p & 45p per litre for unleaded.

Today looking at circa 150p to 165p for the same. This means the average person on the streets in the UK is paying 3.5 times (250%) per litre compared to 1991.

In 1981 was circa 35p per litres which is an increase of 4.5 times (350%).

[bondholder] 01/4/2022 12:40

USA cumulative CPI 1991 to 2022 is 108 percent

[smithie6] 01/4/2022 11:06

"Today gas prices rise by 50% in the UK, this is the sacrifice the British people are being forced to make by the Western governments due to their sanctions on Russia."

UK gas imports come mostly from Norway

Why is there not a long term fixed price ?

[loganair] 01/4/2022 10:58

Today gas prices rise by 50% in the UK, this is the sacrifice the British people are being forced to make by the Western governments due to their sanctions on Russia.

Gas prices to remain strong throughout the summer as the Europeans are going to buy as much gas as possible to fill their storage tanks.

What is left of coal fired power stations in Europe are going to have to work as hard as they can next winter - well that's good for the environment isn't it..

Next winter there is still talk of energy rationing in Europe and using less oil and gas is "Patriotic." European governments are now using certain words which people will now feel its their duty to do what their government says and tells them to do.

[loganair] 01/4/2022 10:42

Toget to todays price from 1991 one will need to times the 1991 price by at least 6 and if one goes further back 1971 price by a factor of 20 to get to 2022 prices.

If oil in 1991 was $20 per barrel, in todays price would equate to $120 per barrel.

[bondholder] 01/4/2022 10:30

In 1991 the oil price was 20 usd per barrel (40/45 in current money)Oil is 104 usd today.Don't even start to talk about gas prices...

[loganair] 01/4/2022 10:22

Very quietly China is buying off Russia commodities it can't sell to Western countries.

India is steaming mad that it is being told by the West, the UK and USA to buy less oil from Russia which they are buying at a discount. With India saying they are a country with hundreds of millions of poor people and the West is expecting them to buy expensive oil from the United States while rich Europe keeps buying billions worth of gas and oil from Russia.

[loganair] 01/4/2022 10:08

TT - Many countries in the past have put in capital controls and being unable to convert from local currencies to other currencies.

$10,000 is a goodly amount for a private individual, remember Greece only allowing €400 a day.

What's the big deal about the USD, Russia does quite a lot of trade in the Yuan and local Russians are able to buy Yuan with Roubles and to open Yuan savings accounts, more than many Europeans are able to do in their countries.

[tigerbythetail] 01/4/2022 09:57

You are not properly researched, Loganair.
It is now effectively impossible to legally convert roubles into hard currency.
Russian companies and individuals can't even withdraw more than $10,000 from their own US dollar currency accounts.
Russia is going back to the complete chaos of 1991.
In all seriousness, PIs here are MASSIVELY underestimating the risks involved with holding this share. The chances of a total wipeout have to be well over 50%. There's a good reason why financial institutions are willing to accept any bid for their shares.
(I'll leave it there now.)

[smithie6] 01/4/2022 09:55

What do you think that indicates ?

[loganair] 01/4/2022 09:49

In the past, when they've hit the financial rocks, many countries, even Greece of the EU, have put in far more stringent controls then Russia are doing at the moment.

[loganair] 01/4/2022 09:47

The MOEX Russia Index surged more than 3% to above 2,760 on Friday, rising for the third straight session and returning to levels last seen before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine started.

Sentiment was also lifted after the Bank of Russia eased restrictions on transfer of funds abroad for individuals for a six-month period in its latest move towards relaxing capital controls, but excluded individuals from countries that supported sanctions.

State-owned energy giant Gazprom extended gains, rallying 5% after the company said it continues to supply natural gas to Europe via Ukraine. Other energy firms advanced including Rosneft (4.6%) and Lukoil (1.3%). Financial and technology stocks also supported the market rally, with gains from Sberbank (3.2%), VTB (5.3%), Yandex (5.4%) and Ozon (5.7%). Meanwhile, fertilizer producers PhosAgro (-7.6%) and Acron (-4.1%) slumped.

[soleman1] 01/4/2022 09:46

UK markets indicate MOEX valuations are triple what they should be or MOEX indicates UK Russian dual listed should rise 200%. I think the truth is somewhere in the middle.

[tigerbythetail] 01/4/2022 09:28

No crash on Moex today as Russia rigged the rules again - foreigners still not allowed to sell their shares.
I've no idea what the true value of Russian shares is at the moment, but IMO the current prices on Moex don't mean much at all.
According to a leaked FSB document, as regards the Russian economy, "the abyss winks fervently at us". (It's a quote from some poet or other - maybe Tyutchev).

[mister md] 01/4/2022 08:38

MOEX up another 4%

[soleman1] 01/4/2022 08:34

Interesting you mention 400 and 600p, if we push through 150p there's just thin air until those levels of resistance! Think your right end of sanctions and war should be there abouts.

[bondholder] 01/4/2022 08:31

20% share of Kremlin-backed Rosneft, which contributed a similar slice of BP's $12.8bn windfall annual profitI see Rosneft up 5 percent today. Maybe they will buy BP stake back at a knockdown price. It was valued at 25 billion usd. Rumour reported in various papers.

[mister md] 01/4/2022 08:30

thanks soleman1 - that will coincide nicely with my selling of JRS position at 400-600p levels then ;-)

[soleman1] 01/4/2022 08:26

That was based on the moex being open to foreign selling today, this has now been deferred until end of sanctions/war.

[mister md] 01/4/2022 08:21

So where's the MOEX crash some were predicting for today ? It seems to be continuing it's rise ...