Jpmorgan Russian Securit... Share Discussion Threads

[popit] 08/4/2022 16:08

They are saying that the war and will be over by 9th May as that is the day of the big parade in Moscow.

[mister md] 08/4/2022 15:37

someone posted on l-s-e site, think originally from RT

"Russia's operation in Ukraine could end 'in foreseeable future', Kremlin says
The Kremlin said on Friday that what it calls Russia's "special operation" in Ukraine could end in the "foreseeable future" since its aims were being achieved and work was being carried out by both the Russian military and Russian peace negotiators."

To be taken with a pinch of salt, but looking at POG,POLY,FXPO and JRS today it shows the merest hint of a solution immediately puts these shares in relief-rally mode.

[popit] 08/4/2022 15:34

Popit - thats a bit of a U-turn

Well it is important to look at both sides of the argument. Russia is also saying today that the operations will be over soon, and so if there is new information and the war is near an end then these shares will certainly not be worthless.

The underlying shares of the trust like Gazprom and Lukoil are also grossly undervalued, and so it is not too difficult to see a situation where these JRS shares could be trading at £10 or £12 within the next two years.

[glavey] 08/4/2022 15:27

Don't confuse an 'up-day' coming after several 'down-days' with a fundamental change.

[mister md] 08/4/2022 15:05

Popit - thats a bit of a U-turn, only a week ago you said:

"Popit - 01 Apr 2022 - 18:09:46 - 1736 of 1852 - JRS
At present foreign investors cannot sell any Russian shares, and that will not change until the US and UK have lifted all sanctions, and that is not likely to happen in the next 20 years. So these JRS shares to a foreigner are effectively worth nothing, and of no value, or zero value."



Suddenly decided to join the 'long' gang? Anyhow, impressive rise today - hopefully much more to come, especially for longer term investors here

[glavey] 08/4/2022 15:03

Logan, [1845 etc. "Just look at the number of cars on Russian roads compared to 2000, maybe as many as 10 times more."] now you are just making yourself look silly with this kind of nonsense.

And this? ["Where one of my friends lives in Russia they pay just 1.4 rubs (1.3p) per kwh for their electricity, even in St Petersburg it is only 4.6 rub (4.4p) per kwh where as in Spain electricity is at least 10 times more expensive then in St Petersburg and petrol is 51 rubs (49p) per litre."] Just a ridiculous distorted portrayal of the situation.


( One can add this one as well..!! [1839] )

[irkin] 08/4/2022 15:00

Loganair, thanks for not responding to puerile personal attacks and for providing an alternative to the propaganda being peddled by the embarrassingly biased and hypocritical Western media.

[popit] 08/4/2022 14:54

“Russia is talking about nationalising / seizing assets held in Russia by "unfriendly countries" (as well as about forcing ADRs/GDRs to be exchanged for shares on the Moscow exchange). If that came to pass the bulk of JRS's assets are worthless.”

Why would they be completely worthless? If these JRS were exchanged today for shares on Moex, these JRS shares would have a value of about 500 roubles each, or about £5 each at the present exchange rate. Foreign investors may have a long wait to sell out, or maybe the wait will not be long, but they are still probably worth somewhere between £3 and £5 at the present time. And when the war ends they could very easily go back to £7 or £8.

[bondholder] 08/4/2022 14:31

I read yesterday that the total number of anti tank weapons given to Ukraine this year is around 20,000 plus 10,000 anti aircraft. There was an ex military guy saying that if the Iraqi/Afghans had had access to these sorts of resources the wars would have been lost much more quickly. The best the Russians can do now is try to hold on at huge cost in men and materials. I don't think this will be a 10yr war like Afghanistan.

[hopan] 08/4/2022 12:31

Everyone's contribution positive or negative on JRS is quite valuable for me. Thanks for sharing your views respectfully.

[loganair] 08/4/2022 11:44

In a leaked diplomatic cable, the US State Department urged diplomats to consider the UAE along with India as “in Russia’s camp” with regard to the Ukraine conflict, after both countries abstained on a UN Security Council vote to condemn the Kremlin’s war.

"Continuing to call for dialogue, as you have been doing in the Security Council, is not a stance of neutrality; it places you in Russia’s camp, the aggressor in this conflict."

There is a perception by the Gulf States that Russia stands by its allies over decades, as it supported Bashar al-Assad in Syria, while the US is fickle and undependable, as when it allowed Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak to fall in 2011.

“Russia long term is the more sustainable partnership than the US,” said Mr Krieg, King’s College London. “The US is not reliable. It makes a U-turn every four years. The perception is that Russia is a country that you can rely upon.”

For decades the west has wined and dined the oil-rich autocrats of the Arabian Peninsula, welcoming them to purchase football clubs and even win access to their political elite while selling them advanced weapons and buying up their gas and oil.

But at a crucial juncture in European history, with Russia attacking Ukraine and threatening the entire post-World War II security order, the Gulfies are nowhere to be found.

The west has been unable to count on the United Arab Emirates’ vote at the UN to condemn the invasion; and during Thursday’s vote to remove Moscow from the UN’s Human Rights Council after its alleged war crimes in Ukraine, all of the Gulf states abstained.

The west has been unable to get them to ramp up oil and gas production, to stave off the effects of removing Russian energy from the markets. It has been unable to convince them to abide by sanctions, or even bar Russian oligarchs close to Vladimir Putin from parking their cash and yachts in the Gulf’s glittery cities.

“There seems to be this hubris in Washington that Saudi Arabia and UAE are proxies or allies or partners,” said Andreas Krieg, a Persian Gulf specialist at King’s College London. “But what the US is waking up to is a reality in which Saudi and the UAE are playing their own game.”

[loganair] 08/4/2022 10:58

TT - I chat with my Russian friends who are in Russia on an also daily basis and I'm just passing on in my posts what they are saying and what they see is happening in Russia at the moment and what they are most worried about - branded goods and IKEA.

In the big cities their are a huge number of middle class and compared to say 2000 or even 2010 there is far less poverty in Russia today. Just look at the number of cars on Russian roads compared to 2000, maybe as many as 10 times more. Russia now has more high speed rail then the UK does, much of their infrastructure has been renewed, their roads no longer full of pots holes as they are in many countries across Europe and the United States.

Most of the people who live in grinding poverty in Russia are not the Russians, they are the guest workers from the Stan countries who remit their pay home, in the same way Indian sub-continent people do in the middle eastern countries.

Where one of my friends lives in Russia they pay just 1.4 rubs (1.3p) per kwh for their electricity, even in St Petersburg it is only 4.6 rub (4.4p) per kwh where as in Spain electricity is at least 10 times more expensive then in St Petersburg and petrol is 51 rubs (49p) per litre.

[mister md] 08/4/2022 10:56

Surely its mainly the ordinary folk impacted most by the sanctions and surely those sanctions will be lifted at some point. If the true current NAV is well in excess of 400p as some suggest, then it probably makes sense to simply hold and wait rather than panic sell, even if it takes weeks, months or more than a year. It still makes sense to wait for that outcome which IMHO seems far more likely than wipe-out. But everyone's entitled to their opinion and shorters will of course back up their positions with worst-case narrative. Expected to see some more reducing holdings RNS, the most recent one was on 31/3 ...

[tigerbythetail] 08/4/2022 10:42

I think we can write Loganair off as just a Putin fanboy fascist living in a world of lies and delusions.
Certainly, his posts are increasingly deranged and are VERY far from the reality of Russia. The truth is Russia is being led into isolation and impoverishment by a madman. At best, it will become a client state entirely dependent on its new master, China. At worst, it will become a bigger but equally totalitarian North Korea.

[loganair] 08/4/2022 10:12

I can see the world is polarizing itself into two trading blocks.

The so called international community of the USA, Canada, Europe, Australia and New Zealand with their expensive energy and commodities and virtual signalling feel good ESG leading to an ever lower standard of living and the rest of the world lead by China, Russia and India with cheap energy and commodities leading their populations to an ever higher standard of living.

[loganair] 08/4/2022 09:24

What seems to be really worrying the average Russian middle class is they'll no longer be able to buy Western branded goods with the brand name blazon all over the goods they buy for all to see.

I have explained to my friends in Russia that they will still be able to buy the exact same goods, from the same factories, just with out the brand name showing.

Even in 2010, there were still shops in Russia that just sold western plastic bags, 5 rub for a Tesco or Sainsbury's, 10 rub for a Waitrose and 15 to 20 rub for a Next or M&S which were also the most popular. Russians, especially Russian women would buy the Next and M&S bags then walk round their local town/city trying to make out to everyone that they actually shopped and bought clothing from these stores in Russia.

Clothing in M&S and Next stores in Russia is circa 3 times more expensive then in the UK and only the top 2% of earners in Moscow or St Petersburg, top 1% in other Russian cities are actually able to afford to shop in these two stores.

[loganair] 08/4/2022 09:07

Even many of the Russians who live outside of Russia, who therefore read western media still strongly support Putin and his actions to try and take Eastern Ukraine up to the Dnipro river.

[glavey] 08/4/2022 06:33

"There is much more support in Russia for Putin's action in Ukraine than the Western mainstream media will ever reveal..."

That may be so but, nationalism aside, such has long been the belief of an indoctrinated populace.

В Пра;вдk7; нет; изв;есm0;ий, в Изв;есm0;ия 93; нет; пра;вдm9;.
"In Pravda there is no news, in Izvestia there is no truth."

[fabius1] 07/4/2022 23:18

Soleman1. How do you know? Enlighten us. I sincerely hope you do not rely on the kindergarten known otherwise as the BBC.

[mattjos] 07/4/2022 22:53

It's always been my experience that Russian people very well informed and not at all 'brainwashed' ... they tend to travel a lot & often have wide global personal networks + they are very well educated

[soleman1] 07/4/2022 21:10

Putins media is of course a total fiction, I don't believe Western media is unbiased though there has been some questionable stuff throughout this war.

[lima666] 07/4/2022 21:03

The support for Putin is because of the ‘biased’ news coverage of Russian media. They know no different. To suggest that it’s the west media that’s the blinkered biased one is deluded.