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[loganair] 11/4/2022 09:52

Reporting that the Ukraine is moving 100,000 troops to the Donbas region. I can see it is going to be a brutal blood bath down there.

[hopan] 11/4/2022 09:37

Good morning.

Any idea how does this news affect JRS?

hxxps://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/114465-russia-passes-law-to-delist-securities-from-foreign-bourses

[fabius1] 10/4/2022 16:53

Yes, and the more damage they will do in the process. In the light of T Roosevelt's 'Speak softly, carry a big stick and you will go far' line, the present administration seems to have lost the plot in a number of critical areas. Waving the big stick is one thing, using it is another. I am reminded of the 'Doomsday scenario' in Dr Strangelove. Either way, the manner in which the US pulled out of Afghanistan sent a very clear message to the world. It is no wonder Putin reached his own conclusions after observing the current west and its preoccupation with 'selfies'.

[loganair] 10/4/2022 16:27

1mln plus Russians live in Germany.

China saying they think the war in the Ukraine will last for at least the next 2 to 6 months and is going to become increasingly brutal as the West gives the Ukraine more and more powerful weaponry.

[loganair] 10/4/2022 15:22

U.S. Sanctions = U.S. Insecurity

The more sanctions the United States puts on seems to me to show the more insecure the United States is feeling.

[fabius1] 10/4/2022 13:56

Yes. It's all about the balance of power. Always has been and always will be.

[loganair] 10/4/2022 13:35

What Russia is doing in the Ukraine is similar to China with N.Korea.

For China having N.Korea stops the United States military from being right on their door step. If North and South Korea were ever to reunify would mean U.S. troops being based just across the river from China in the same way if Ukraine was ever to join NATO, would mean United States troops being right on the door step of the Russian border and east of Moscow.


Since Suez, Britain and France, then Europe, then the EU have turned over their foreign policy to the United States and NATO (the US Military).

Europe needs to start to stand on its own two feet and tell the U.S. it's not 1945 anymore.

1945 was the industrialised West against socialist, communist Russia and China. Except for Germany, the west has deindustrialised, it therefore seems to me it's now about the socialist West versus the industrialised countries of China and Russia.

It seems to me the the reason why Germany tends to stand up to the United States more than any other European country is they are still an industrialised country.

The sanctions the U.S. are putting on Russia benefit the U.S. to the detriment, to the harm of Europe.

What countries do the U.S. have the greatest sanctions on...Russia, Iran and Venezuela. What do these three countries very much have in common? They are three of the biggest oil producing countries in the world.

Over the past 50 years the U.S. foreign policy has mainly been about oil and financing its ever growing trade deficit - smashing the likes of Iraq and Libya - oil producing countries - making basket cases of their economies, was all about oil.

[fabius1] 10/4/2022 12:48

Yes, but try dinning that into the heads of the so called western leaders in La La land with their degrees in PPE, most of whom I suspect would struggle to boil an egg. As for the Orwell '1984' mantra of 'four legs good, two legs bad', no coincidence that he chose the common pig, with it's shared DNA and genetic similarities to Homo 'Sapiens', as the central metaphor for his novel. Given the extent of the routine media spin across the board, it does not seem unreasonable to include the lowly Lemming in the genetic programming of the human race :(.

[loganair] 10/4/2022 12:14

The West thought it could sanction Russia back to the stone age.

All sanctions are doing with Russia is making the Russian economy more resilient, self-reliant and self-sufficient as they are producing more and more of their needs, especially their basic needs domestically and more cheaply while they are still able to trade with China and India for the things they are not self-reliant on.

Sanctions are just integrating the Eurasian countries, especially Russia and China exactly the policy Kissinger warned against.

[loganair] 10/4/2022 11:30

Considering the West keeps reporting the dire straights the Russian aviation industry is in due to the sanctions at this exact moment in time their are at least 116 domestic flights airborne by Russian airlines and through out the week at least 1,942 flight numbers are used by Russian carriers.

[fabius1] 10/4/2022 11:29

Well, it seems to me the Russians have the nudge on the west in the staple food inflation race. The Russians are importing relative high prices from the west but I would suggest they have the stronger hand with lower energy and basic food (grains etc) costs. When push comes to shove, I think food and shelter ultimately trumps the latest fad. By comparison, the UK, in its wisdom, is far too reliant on food imports, not to mention too many other items. Let's not even talk about the current account balance and national debt. Russia, on the other hand, has a low debt per capita. Free trade is the solution, but as always, governments insist on interfering and skimming off their taxes for their political agendas. The US and EU are about as selectively protectionist as it gets. I would imagine the Russians have done their sums if nothing else.

[loganair] 10/4/2022 10:24

Y-O-Y inflation in Russia currently 19.7%, with food inflation of 17.4%. Plenty of Colgate toothpaste and Heinz baby food in the supermarkets in Russia, in other words there are still plenty of Western branded goods in the supermarkets in Russia.

Looking at my latest grocery shopping bill in the UK it seems to me many items on it have increased by 15% to 20% since last year, Aldi in Germany say they are putting up many of their prices by 25% over the coming month, therefore Russia's food inflation is similar to those in the West.

[soleman1] 09/4/2022 21:22

I see weekly inflation expectations have dropped from 17 to 1% and the bank of Russia cut interest rates three percent to 17%

[irkin] 09/4/2022 16:37

A historian who once stated "Trump's campaign for president of the United States was basically a Russian operation" an idea that has now been thoroughly debunked. He might be right this time but I'll wait and see if it turns out to be yet another anti-Russian propaganda piece on behalf of the Biden administration.

[tigerbythetail] 09/4/2022 14:50

This article (by a well-known historian) deserves to be read...
hxxps://snyder.substack.com/p/russias-genocide-handbook?s=r

[loganair] 09/4/2022 12:39

What has Russia going into the Ukraine shown us?

1. Russia is not what it was once perceived to be outside of having a red button. Militarily they've proven themselves to be a complete disaster.

2. China needs the U.S. consumer and can not survive without them and therefore doesn't have the power it thinks it has.

I have lived and worked in Taiwan and believe you me there is only a very small, a tiny possibility that China will go in and invade - why?

China has always felt that the Taiwanese people are Chinese.

China needs the trade it does with Taiwan and to take Taiwan they would have to all but destroy the economic and manufacturing capacity of the country.

Even China has acknowledged that to take Taiwan it would cost them 100,000 troops killed and several million Taiwanese also killed.

[fabius1] 09/4/2022 12:30

Loganair. It is all very transparent. The EU has been talking about a European army for a few years. Macron has been clearly provoking Russia for some time. It is hard to believe that Putin was not aware that he was being set up. I think we are now seeing a game of chicken on the west versus east front that have been in play behind the scenes for a while.

[loganair] 09/4/2022 11:46

I know some of my posts are not the stuff of polite conversation, however I'm just trying to be a rational voice in the wilderness.

When it comes to sanctions on Russia it seems to me that the United States are just doing what is best for them and for some reason like a lap dog, Europe is just doing what the United States tells them to do irrespective of what harm it may to do their own economies.

It is interesting what Von der Leyen has been saying, that she wants Ukraine to join the EU to protect its borders is exactly what Russia has been saying about the Ukraine that they want Ukraine in their trading block to protect Russia's Western borders. What she says sounds rather like what NATO is about, that the EU is not a trading block, rather a National State which is anti anything thing that is not European - in there way, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and to some extent the USA can be counted as European - or as the Europeans and United States calls themselves "The International Community."

[irkin] 08/4/2022 17:47

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg's has issued an open invitation to Finland ans Sweden to join Nato suggesting that both Nordic countries would be fast tracked.

A cynic might think that the West is doing everything it can to escalate the situation regardless of the impact.

Mind you this is a Zerohedge report so must be unreliable according to some here.

[loganair] 08/4/2022 17:45

It seems to me Russian troops have now pulled totally out of the Sumi region to over the Russian border. As far as I can see Russian troops are now just a little North of Kharkiv is as far North as they now go.

Ukraine are now pulling civilians out of Kramatorsk and Pokrovsk which are East of the Izium/Crimea line.

[loganair] 08/4/2022 16:46

Just before Russia went into the Ukraine the GBPRUB exchange rate was circa 105.

2 weeks after the Russia had gone in 180 rubs to the pound, today the GBPRUB exchange rate is 103.

CBR policy is to keep the USDRUB exchange rate below 80 and therefore as it is now below 80 they have started to ease their monetary policy and lower interest rates.

If the USDRUB exchange rate stays below 80, over the next couple of weeks I can see the CBR lowering interest rates to 12% and within a month down to 8% which is only 1.25% above where it was before Russia went into the Ukraine.

[mattjos] 08/4/2022 16:32

Look at then Ruble fly, even with 300BP Rate Cut.
USDRUB now at 75.5

[loganair] 08/4/2022 16:27

It seems to me what Putin is now looking for, instead of capturing Kiev and taking everything East of the Dnipro river, he is now just going for a line from Izium diagonally down to Crimea.

Russia already has much of this area, just that 20,000 crack troops of the Ukrainian army are still holding the line just west of Donetsk plus Ukraine also holds much of central Mariupol.

Once these two areas have fallen to Russia, is when I think they'll go for a ceasefire.