Jpmorgan Russian Securit... Share Discussion Threads

[loganair] 05/4/2022 11:37

The MOEX Russia Index fell more than 1% to below 2,750 on Tuesday morning, snapping a four-day winning streak, as investors turned cautious over potential new sanctions against Russia following alleged war crimes by Russian troops in Ukraine.

The US and Europe pledged to punish Moscow over civilian killings in northern Ukraine, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warning that more deaths are likely to be discovered in towns recaptured from Russian forces. Meanwhile, EU nations remain divided over whether to extend sanctions to energy imports from Russia, including gas, oil and coal.

Energy firms declined, with losses from Gazprom (-2%), Rosneft Oil (-2.8%) and Lukoil (-1.2%). Russian banks also gave up some gains from the previous session, including Sberbank (-2%) and VTB (-1.3%). Other commodity-related firms in the industrial and agricultural sectors slumped as well.

[smithie6] 05/4/2022 07:26

Good question, I know little about oil, need an 'oiler' to comment.

[loganair] 04/4/2022 19:16

The United States are asking the Europeans to go with out Russian oil and gas therefore why aren't the Americans also willing to go without?

[smithie6] 04/4/2022 18:46

Logan

USA & Russian oil

I understand that a lot of USA oil is thick oil, while some Russian oil is thinner.
For USA I think it helps them with the refining process to mix the 2.

[loganair] 04/4/2022 18:12

The MOEX Russia Index closed 1% higher at 2,787 on Monday, gaining for the fourth consecutive session, as investors evaluated talks of further Western sanctions against Moscow amid reports of war crimes in Ukraine.

French President Emmanuel Macron said that a new round of sanctions targeting Russia was needed and that there were clear indications that Russian forces were responsible for the killings of civilians in the Ukrainian town of Bucha, while the German Defense Minister said the European Union must discuss banning the import of Russian gas.

Banks led the gains in Moscow, as VTB shares jumped 9.5% and Sberbank followed to close 5.7% higher. The metallurgical sector also booked gains, led by a 10.9% jump for Petropavlosk. Gazprom ended 0.2% higher, on par with the energy sector amid reports that the German government is in talks with private buyers for Gazprom’s assets in the country.

[loganair] 04/4/2022 13:40

Many Russians, even young Russians, say they want their country to be strong so they can be proud of it which means to them Russia needs to have a really tough strong leader of their country so that their country will be really strong in the world.

The Kremlin is increasingly authoritarian which many Russians seem to endorse.

Russia's history and culture gives them a scepticism about the West means appetite for democracy in Russia in diminishing.

The Russians have been hardened by history. They're resilient, they have to be and very understandably they are often suspicious of the easy Western smile (how the West makes Promises to get what it wants and when the West has got what it wants it doesn't keep its Promises.)

[fabius1] 04/4/2022 10:54

'I can image what the Americans are doing, export this extra oil they've imported from Russia to Europe at a premium.'

Oh yes, just another 'Suez crisis' routine.

[loganair] 04/4/2022 10:15

Being reported that the United States are increasing their oil imports from Russia while demanding that Europe decrease their energy imports from Russia.

I can image what the Americans are doing, export this extra oil they've imported from Russia to Europe at a premium.

[loganair] 04/4/2022 09:55

The MOEX Russia Index jumped as much as 2.75% to 2,835 before turning lower on Monday, as investors evaluated talks of further sanctions against Russia after Ukraine accused Russian forces of war crimes. French President Emmanuel Macron said Monday that a new round of sanctions targeting Russia was needed and that there were clear indications Russian forces were responsible for the killings of civilians in the Ukrainian town of Bucha.

This followed an 11% gain in the benchmark index last week as Russian stocks returned to pre-invasion levels following a month-long shutdown. Authorities conducted a measured reopening of financial markets and gradually eased capital control measures.

Commodity stocks weakened on Monday, with losses from Gazprom (-0.8%), Lukoil (-1.9%) and Novolipetsk Steel (-1.2%). Meanwhile, Russian banks outperformed the market, including Sberbank (0.9%) and VTB (3.2%).

[loganair] 04/4/2022 09:20

If Russia sells its oil and gas to Europe in roubles will mean these countries will have to hold a reserve of roubles and even more importantly will mean roubles going through the world wide banking system thereby making the rouble more liquid, stopping the rouble banking system from becoming clogged up. This will help the likes of Sberbank and VTB.

[mister md] 04/4/2022 08:16

MOEX up another 2%
POLY up 7%
POG up 3%
FXPO up 1%

[soleman1] 03/4/2022 23:51

There are a lot of astute highly intelligent investors here, thank you all for sharing your thoughts they confirm my own research. Unfortunately this will change when it starts getting noticed by day traders and the general herd following crowd but at that point the pound signs will drown out the noise.

[mattjos] 03/4/2022 22:45

The West has frozen some of the RSB reserves (denominated in EUR & USD). The Ruble is not subject to these sort of risks & now Gazprombank is a buyer of Rubles, effectively putting a Bid into the RUB, when one might not otherwise have existed.
Continued strength in the RUB will negate the inflationary impact and in-turn enable the RSB to reduce the interest rates.

The RSB is now buying Gold at RUB5,000/gm thru 30th June .. with the renewed strength in the RUB, this is now actually above the LBMA reported spot rate for Gold & sets up a fascinating face-off between the Russian physical Gold market and the LBMA/COMEX paper markets.
If the USA/UK keeps up its efforts to subdue the price of Gold, there exists an obvious cross-borders (global) arbitrage opportunity but, RSB will certainly not accept paper contracts - they will only accept the physical metal.

Putin & the RSB have devised a really cunning way to challenge the established (& highly corrupted) Gold market & they are using the West's money (in exchange for Oil/Gas) to do so.
It's an extremely astute & cunning move & I'm sure has been quite a long time in the planning.
Rather like a bear-trap .. the more the West struggles, the deeper & tighter the trap will close.
Russia will start to corner the physical Gold market and the funds with which he does so, are being provided by the very countries who are truly desperate to prevent true price discovery to occur in the Gold market (& likely therefore the Silver market given their linkage).

The Ukraine situation to one side, it's potentially a stroke of genius.

[smithie6] 03/4/2022 22:15

Not so sure that getting paid in euros or roubles affects the euro:rouble exchange rate at all.

If a Russian co. selling gas, oil or gold gets paid in euros then he changes them to roubles because his workers & other costs are mostly in roubles. He buys roubles & sells euros. If the buyer or the seller of the oil does the exchange, it makes no difference imo.

[loganair] 03/4/2022 12:11

Gordon Brown use to give out prior notice of the UK's next gold sale which use to temporarily depress the price of gold for the sale. With this money he bought US and EURO bonds.

He said he was doing this because gold provided no interest, therefore no income whereas as US and Euro bonds paid an interest which provides income for the UK government.

[loganair] 03/4/2022 10:34

Currently the Central Bank of Russia will buy any amount of gold from miners at the equivalent of $1,890 per oz.

As the Rouble continues to strengthen this equivalent USD rate will only rise. If the exchange rate returns to the average from when Russia took Crimea, however before going into the rest of Ukraine would mean the CBR buying gold at the equivalent of $2,200 per oz.

[loganair] 03/4/2022 10:20

The Russians have not put the rouble on some sort of gold standard. Instead, they have repeated the Nixon/Kissinger strategy which created the petrodollar in 1973 by getting the Saudis to agree to accept only dollars for oil.

This time, nations deemed by Russia to be unfriendly will be forced to buy roubles – roughly 2 trillion by the EU alone based on last year’s natural gas and oil imports from Russia — driving up the exchange rate. The rouble has now doubled against the dollar from its low point of RUB 150 to RUB 85 yesterday in just over three weeks.

The Russian Central Bank will soon be able to normalise the domestic economy by reducing interest rates and removing exchange controls.

[amaretto1] 03/4/2022 08:25

Looks like Gazprom have turned the gas off to Europe....Biden still sat nice and warm

[amaretto1] 03/4/2022 07:51

U forgot Japan ....