Jpmorgan Russian Securit... Share Discussion Threads

[wskill] 07/3/2022 10:24

Barclays still able to buy bought a few today 90.4p to buy .Might get cheaper when Russian markets open but cannot see this as 48% of JRS is in energy stocks cannot see them falling more.

[galeforce1] 07/3/2022 10:21

I can't buy JRS on my IG Index accounts or on my Spreadex account. They all accept 'closing deals only'. It'so annoying when platforms adopt this kind of 'we know best' policy. Personally I think it's for individuals to make their own decisions about how much risk they want to take.

What platforms are accepting buy orders on JRS? I might have to set up a new account to do this.

There's an interesting page in this weeks Investor's Chronicle about Russia risks. They are not encouraging, citing the risk that 'UK citizens may be barred from holding any Russian investments".

But personally I think this is too pessimistic.

[topazfrenzy] 06/3/2022 15:11

'Wall Street Is Quietly Trading For The Return Of Russia'

[soleman1] 06/3/2022 14:11

I managed to pick up this, poly and evr end of last week.Logan you seem to have a firm grasp of the fundamentals, I too am looking at this from a long term hold perspective. I feel the bottom is likely next week, what price are you looking to add?

[honestmarty] 06/3/2022 12:14

I traded POLY in volumes up to £10k.
AJ Bell
I had to repeatedly try to put the trades through to get a firm price.

Usually it only succeeded after a sharp price move.

[smithie6] 06/3/2022 11:37

Joy Division Still

'Perhaps a nuclear strike by Russia against Ukraine, to speed things up' !!

You are a 'little bundle of joy & happiness' !

No chance imo.
Russia has a lot more traditional munitions, shells & cruise missiles.
If wants to use them then I am sure that it could. It has no need to use nukes.

If it just destroys all the buildings in Ukraine to get military control of Ukraine it might find all of its borders closed, including to China. And that Russia would be treated as an isolated leper for years (well, until Putin steps down) & hopefully Putin realises that the Russians would sack him in X months if that happened, sure, not the next day but after some time. If not allowed ever to travel abroad (trapped in cold dark Russian winters) or watch films from the west or music etc etc, the Russians would finally get a new leader imo.

[loganair] 06/3/2022 10:57

I've bought a few Poly by placing a 'Limit' Price then having to wait for my order to be Manually Executed which can take 30 mins to an hour once my Limit price has been reached.

I've had no problems what so ever in buying any JRS for sub 120p. Depending on what's happening next week I may buy a few more. I am a long term investor with many of my investments being 10 years plus.

[joy division still] 06/3/2022 10:52

Any thoughts if Russia launch a small strategic nuclear missile in Ukraine? I know sounds crazy, but it would bring capitulation and stop the war, Russia annex (min) east half of Ukraine. All world markets collapse....

[galeforce1] 06/3/2022 10:05

Re. the current assets of JRS and where they are listed -
We know that 40% approx. of JRS's investments are in GDRs and ADRs of Russian companies listed in other countries. Are these still tradable? If they are, will they remain tradable for long?
I tried to make some small purchases in a Russian goldminer on Friday morning, not sanctioned (POLY), but the IG Markets platform declined the order with the message 'closing trades only'.
I haven't yet tried buying any JRS. Hopefully this is stilll possible.
I have a few Lukoil ADR's, listed in Frankfurt, in euros. They have fallen about 90% and it's very tempting to add some more. But I wonder if they are tradable?
Re. the cash. We think that JRS has about £25-£30m, but remember this cash will reduce after the scheduled divi this week, although I won't be surprised if this is cancelled.
There was a story on Sky re. the inevitable tit-for-tat measures the Russians intend to take against British assets in Russia, in response to British seizing of Russian assets here. That makes a company like POG very vulnerable.
I suppose the question I am trying to ask here is 'what % of JRS's assets do we think will be tradable when the fighting stops and things calm down?' 75%? 50%? Or less?
It is very tempting to buy JRS at less than £1. But there are many risks.

[the millipede] 05/3/2022 22:20

“In the mid 1950's Russia offers to reunify East Germany with the rest of Germany as long as the West and West Germany accept Germany being a neutral country, not in NATO and disarms, sounds rather like what Russia are now wanting of the Ukraine.”

It is hard to know how much Russia could be trusted then, and I am not convinced this deal would have led to no Warsaw Pact. Potentially it would simply have taught the Russians that the west was weak and to push further.

It seems, from info released by government to the BBC, that before the invasion Putin was offered a deal on Ukraine involving its exclusion from NATO, but he turned it down. He scented weakness in my view, and acted accordingly. Whether he understands his miscalculation now, who knows.

[loganair] 05/3/2022 20:37

Some on this thread may feel that I'm pro-Russian, it's just that I'm not anti-Russian.

I first went to Russia in the mid 1980's, the Soviet Union as it was then.

Our flight was the only non-Warsaw pack flight to arrive in St Petersburg that day. Immediately upon stopping on the empty non-Warsaw Pack apron and before the forward door of the aircraft was allowed to be opened the aircraft was surrounded by the military all facing outwards...outwards so except for the ground handlers of this aircraft no other Russian could approach the aircraft.

The first writing I saw was a board on the covered walkway to the arrivals hall and was in English said "have any jeans for sale, phone...."

[loganair] 05/3/2022 20:05

In 2012 Ukraine bans the official use of Russian in Russian speaking areas of the Ukraine.

2014 Ukraine writes into its constitution to join NATO. Soon after Russia takes over Crimea.


In the mid 1950's Russia offers to reunify East Germany with the rest of Germany as long as the West and West Germany accept Germany being a neutral country, not in NATO and disarms, sounds rather like what Russia are now wanting of the Ukraine.

If the West had accepted what Russia were asking for when it came to Germany the chances are there would not have been a cold war and no Warsaw Pack and no need for massive huge military spending by the West - what a waste of financial resources.

Sadly NATO is not a Security of Europe organization as once upon a time Russia asked to join and was refused membership, it is an out right anti-Russia organization and that seems to be its sole function.

[votiem] 05/3/2022 18:38

Well... extraordinary times. Have dipped in and out of Loganair's posts for maybe 20 years - he has to be THE EXPERT when it comes to understanding Russia and JRS. Thanks Logan if you read this. My gut feeling is that further uncertainly thanks to Putin's silly war will mean more boycotts, disinvestment and sanctions and further pressure on the rouble. The NAV is currently 49p against a share price currently of 99p. Am minded to take a speculative punt at around 30p. Any thoughts? Best, Mark

[fabius1] 05/3/2022 18:35

'Should the provision of electricity to countries be left completely to the market ? (& water & gas)
The current instability in prices show the risks of everything just being left in the hands of the private sector.'

Public sector interference is precisely why the market is destabilised. Any business worth its salt will hedge or make provisions for a degree of cost fluctuation on commercial grounds in the interests of its customers. The problems begin when you allow the public sector to dictate terms based on political agendas which is a long overdue and widespread problem in the UK and will only get worse.

[smithie6] 05/3/2022 15:22

Loganair wrote

"Gas prices in Europe spiked to nearly $2,400 per 1,000 cubic meters, or €212 per megawatt-hour in household terms,"

If of interest electricity in Spain today, wholesale price is >400€/MWhr; 0.4€/kwhr.
Retail price ?
Who knows.
(Electricity is normally perhaps double the gas price imo because gas is used to produce electricity in most of Europe. And the generators are perhaps 50% efficient. And the operators have to pay the depreciation of the generators & add their profit)

Not all of electricity supplied to residential clients comes from the wholesale market imo., because many companies will have their own wind/solar/hydro power generation so they do not have to buy those MWhrs, since they own it. I assume that they buy enough power on the daily market to make up the shortfall between their owned production & what they have to provide.

----
The profit at present on hydro power is very high if being sold via the daily wholesale price. The building costs were paid off decades ago. Just need depreciation costs on the generators/turbines which will need servicing & replacement every X years. Otherwise the energy is free & lots of it, as long as there is plenty of water. (No problem for hydro systems in Scotland & Wales !)

-----

The gas from Russia/Gazprom is bought (by Germany, Poland etc) via a market everyday or there are contracts for 6 or 12 months at a fixed price ?

----

Should the provision of electricity to countries be left completely to the market ? (& water & gas)
The current instability in prices show the risks of everything just being left in the hands of the private sector.

[smithie6] 05/3/2022 15:16

Sberbank has not escaped the sanctions imo.

Their shares have crashed, current price ??
10% of pre invasion price ?

imo because of sanctions, no access to western banking system for many things such as raising money.

----

Hungary has put a supervisor in control of Sberbank there, above the bod !
& limited withdrawals to 18k€.

Hungarian banking system appears to have g'teed accounts to 80k€, as per all accounts in the EU. Hungary will surely be praying that they don't have to pay out themselves ! (Perhaps it is an example that many sanctions will produce some negative effects back in the west. No problem, sanctions were/are needed)

[loganair] 05/3/2022 12:38

Gas prices in Europe spiked to nearly $2,400 per 1,000 cubic meters, or €212 per megawatt-hour in household terms, on Friday for the first time in market history as Russia’s military offensive in Ukraine continues.

The April futures at the TTF hub in the Netherlands soared to $2,392 per 1,000 cubic meters, beating the record of $2,280 set the previous day, according to data from London’s ICE exchange.

On Thursday, westbound natural gas flows from Russia to Germany through the Yamal-Europe pipeline stopped despite additional bids from Gazprom’s consumers. Supplies were later resumed.

Russian banking majors Sberbank and Gazprombank have been exempted from the latest sanctions so far due to their essential role in processing payments for the EU’s gas and oil imports from Russia.

[loganair] 05/3/2022 12:17

Putin doesn't look that healthy to me, a very puffy face - he is 70 next birthday, in 10 years he will be 80.

Maybe Putin has taken the action he has because he knows he doesn't have too much longer being the leader and therefore is longer able to take Ukraine fish slice at a time as it were.

[andyforster1] 05/3/2022 12:14

In an effort to prevent a tidal wave of selling when the market eventually reopens, Russia will use up to $10 billion from its sovereign wealth fund to buy stocks, the country's prime minister said Tuesday.He also announced Russia would temporarily ban foreigners from exiting their investments in the country, after a number of major companies including oil and gas majors Shell and BP announced they were writing off their Russian assets.

[smithie6] 05/3/2022 12:05

Medvedev

I don't know much but I doubt that he is respected in Russia.
His body language etc makes me think he was only ever a leader because Putin picked him for being spineless & happy to follow Putin's exact orders. I can't see him being top of the pile ahead of some stronger character.

Putin looks fairly healthy so it looks set to be in power for a while imo. However in 10 years he will be oldish & surely tempted to enjoy his wealth, villas, yachts etc, although yes he loves being the top dog so maybe he will never retire before his death except due to health reasons.

[loganair] 05/3/2022 11:53

How about this for a thought...


After Russia/Putin has taken the Ukraine and before the next Russian elections, Putin resigns in favour of Medvedev.

Putin the bad evil boy, Medvedev the clean cut well spoken Russian who the West think they'll able to have a good relationship with.

Because its now Medvedev, many of the Western sanctions are taken off Russia, to show good faith.

[soleman1] 05/3/2022 09:33

It seems this etf has factored in an 80% drop when the moex returns from already much off the high. As bad as things are I don't believe it will be 80% down. Putin will open it when he believes he can control it, I expect a ban on shorting and the trillions of euros he promised. Russian people surely will also be bargain hunting. Feels like betting on a rigged market because it is.

[topazfrenzy] 04/3/2022 19:50

Excellent news going forward, time to load up big time and sit on them, note iii:

'Following the Annual General Meeting of the Company, held today, the Board is pleased to announce that all the ordinary business put to shareholders was passed. The following special business was also passed which:

i) will allow the Company to allot new shares up to an aggregate nominal amount of GBP20,218, representing 5% of the Company's issued Ordinary share capital;

ii) will allow the disapplication of pre-emption rights on the allotment of new Ordinary shares;

iii) will allow the Company to make market purchases of up to 6,061,383 Ordinary shares representing 14.99% of the Company's issued share capital;

vi) allow the Company to continue as an investment trust for a further five years.'

[bondholder] 04/3/2022 19:38

Surely the future income potential hasn't fallen nearly 90 percent here. Oil,minerals etc. Oversold fear market.