Jpmorgan Russian Securit... Share Discussion Threads

[stallone10] 03/3/2022 14:48

Yes but it sure would be nice seeing these billionaires suffer

[galeforce1] 03/3/2022 14:37

The problem with illegally seizing Russian assets in the UK and the rest of Europe is that Russia will feel justified in illegally seizing foreign-owned assets on their territory - foreign-owned mines or even foreign-owned holdings in Russian companies.

Also, it would be damaging to the UK's reputation as country with a respect for the law and justice (surely one of our main USPs?) to go around illegally seizing the property of Russian individuals just because we are angry with their government's actions?

It's good to see that JRS is still trading. I hope the managers aren't forced to sell the assets at a fraction of their real value. The buyers would probably be Chinese, Qatari, Saudi etc, who see our (ineffective) sanctions as an opportunity for them to profit at our expense.

[smithie6] 03/3/2022 14:02

Can the villas, yachts of Putin & family not be seized ?

And then charge him war crimes, in the Hague.

& if he refuses to take part or provide a defence,
find him guilty.

& keep/sell the seized assets of Putin & family & use to pay part of the costs to rebuild Ukraine & compensate victims & families.

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If seize Putin family assets then he might turn off the gas supply in reply.

[smithie6] 03/3/2022 13:44

...very strange & bad situation

Invading a smaller country just because 1 person feels like doing it !. Putin. Bxdsteward.

[robertball] 03/3/2022 12:21

If I was Russia I would halt energy supplies to the West

[smithie6] 03/3/2022 11:32

Any opinions on this one today ?

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I see that Germany has apparently seized a luxury yacht. Worth 600 million€. And France has seized one as well. And in Spain where most of the luxury yachts are ? Well, the authorities will probably be having dinner with the oligarchs tonight to discuss the situation ! (Spain & tourist income. They think mostly about the income).

Be interesting to see how they justify keeping or confiscating it, for ever. The owner being Russian would surely not be a legal justification. But who knows.

Update: ok/good, it is freezing of assets under the sanctions.
If Russia does not leave Ukraine I assume that the owner will have a slow legal battle to regain possesson. While at the same time he will have to pay the marina mooring costs ! (Or not pay & see a debt run up, with interest)

[smithie6] 02/3/2022 18:57

Including the biggest holding (before this crash) which provides a large part of the gas from Russia consumed by Germany. 40% if from Russia.

I understand that the daily purchase by the EU of Russian gas/oil is 700 million $.

Worth noting ?
Not imo.

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Putin's conduct, of course a disgrace. Ideally he should be tried in court but I cannot see that ever happening.

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Did Gazprom approve the invasion ?
Uh, no. But yes it is an integral part of the Russian state system, since it is state owned.

[doe808] 02/3/2022 18:56

Fabuis1 - Putin certainly didnt see the sanctions again the Central Bank, otherwise they were remarkably unprepaired for those.

[sludgesurfer] 02/3/2022 18:41

The manager of this Trust cannot trade 50% of the holdings as they are locally held. Many of them will be written down to zero.

[fabius1] 02/3/2022 15:27

Seems to me this all boils down to Putin calling the bluff and resolve of the Luvvies in the EU. One way or another, we will find out who has the strongest hand. Loganair is more or less correct about sanctions. Putin et al have been through this hoop so many times it matters little to them. Do people really think they have not thought this all through and planned ahead. At the end of the day, they have what the world increasingly needs and I am quite sure that as far as Putin is concerned, 9/10 possession is good enough for him. Title is a moot point.

[goldpiguk] 02/3/2022 15:12

Hi Smithie6,

I don't quite know why you brought up the Opium Wars. They were from 1839-42 and 1856-60, although given what is going on in Hong Kong today, it is a moot point if they affect share prices today. (Hong Kong was ceded to Britain as a result of the First Opium War.)

Boxer Bonds were first issued after The Republic of China was formed. A few of these bonds held in the UK were paid (pennies on the dollar) during the 1980 negotiations on the return of Hong Kong to China, but most were never repaid. I suspect the owners would not have forgotten their loss.

The reality in Ukraine is that thousands of soldiers, civilians, and children have already been killed; buildings and infrastructure are being destroyed; war crimes may already have been committed; hundreds of thousands of people displaced. A pandora's box has been opened with far reaching consequences. History suggests this crisis will last years.

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." Those now buying shares in JRS clearly fall into the don't remember camp!

Goldpig

Postscript Edited at 10.45pm on 2/3/22

This evening I was pleased to read Roman Abramovich will sell Chelsea and donate all net proceeds to the victims of the war in Ukraine. For me the idea of trying to cash in for personal gain from the suffering and tragedy unfolding in Ukraine is repugnant.

[panshanger1] 02/3/2022 14:25

https://citywire.com/investment-trust-insider/news/barings-writes-down-russian-shares-to-zero-jrs-axes-nav/a2381267

[smithie6] 02/3/2022 12:50

GoldpigUK

"....will fare little better than holders of China Boxer Bonds issued from 1911-1940"

I think your arguments are a bit disconnected from reality.
One possibility is that the talks between Ukraine & Russia produce a result. And a ceasefire & most of the Russian troops leaving. (& the sanctions being removed).

At this instant no one knows for sure what will happen.

An on going dispute is not in Russia's interests, being a leper in the world. Perhaps unable to import/export to Europe or even to go there on holiday. Unable to take part in any sports competitions. A big fall in their currency value. Interest rate up to 20%, which will surely cause a hard recession.

While Europe will still want/need Russian gas. And also Ukraine/Russian wheat & maize. (For making bread, feeding pigs, beef cattle, dairy cattle, chickens...)

Both sides want a solution.

And I think the EU will keep the sanctions in place if Russia doesn't get out of most of Ukraine. (EU will probably not demand that Russia 'gives back' Crimea & the 2 Donetsk regions, the EU tolerated that before so probably will again).

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the Opium War between the UK & China
.....time moves on
No one remembers it now. It doesn't affect share prices any more !

...most crises are overcome...

[loganair] 02/3/2022 12:36

Sanctions will not badly effect Russia as do not include Energy or Commodities, including grains which make up circa 75% to 80% of Russian exports.

Russia has a swap line with China so are able to get their hands on as many USD as they wish.

Turkey has not closed its airspace to Russia, Turkish airlines have increased their flights to Russia 5 fold over the past few days which will help Turkey bring in much need forex.

Bank of Russia have already announce will not be defending the Rouble and thereby not wasting any of Russia's forex.

[goldpiguk] 02/3/2022 12:18

Hi,

JRS was an investment trust I had on my watchlist, so from time to time, I looked in on this board. After the appalling events now unfolding in Ukraine, this company is no longer one I would wish to put money into.

Quite apart from ethics, anyone who thinks they are going to make a quick buck buying JRS shares is living in cloud-cuckoo-land. Frankly, I am amazed these shares have not been suspended.


Sanctions like the ones imposed on Russia tend to last years not months. To give just a few examples:
Sanctions against Cuba started in Feb 1959 and some still exist to this day.
Sanctions against Iran (1979-81) and since 1987.
Sanctions against North Korea - since 2006.
Sanctions against Syria - since 2011.

Unraveling the consequences of the horrific war now taking place in Ukraine will take years, and there can be no guarantee holders of this paper will receive much, if anything back. More likely is many holders of investments in Russia will fare little better than holders of China Boxer Bonds issued from 1911-1940, many of who are still waiting for their money.

Goldpig

[smithie6] 02/3/2022 11:59

Ownership

The oligarchs owning big chunks of these companies are mates of Putin.

With their luxury yachts in the same marinas in Barcelona or in Majorca.

I can't see Putin acting against them.

[sludgesurfer] 02/3/2022 11:44

It's not the ability to operate and generate income which i question. It's the ownership and listing structure which could radically change.

[chesty1] 02/3/2022 11:44

When Russia invaded they should of shut down all Russian stocks, simples, anyone buying this deserves to lose.

[smithie6] 02/3/2022 11:37

So

You think that these companies will not be able to sell any oil or gas ?

[sludgesurfer] 02/3/2022 11:32

The main risk to me isn't simply the health of the underlying holdings. Its more systemic regarding ownership, liquidity and the health of the market in which they are traded. I don't see how even the investment manager can fully understand that risk at this time given how this is unfolding. Yesterday's statement said as much.It seems quite possible to me that several holdings will cease to exist at least in a manner in which current holders can extract any value.

[smithie6] 02/3/2022 10:48

...but the same applies to the EU as well, no ?

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The Balkan war.
The EU just watched. We saw the bombings of civilians every day on TV.

Finally it was the yanks that took military action. Not the EU.

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Germany's help last week for the Ukraine was to promise to send 500 soldiers' helmets !! & some other non-weapon stuff. (Now they have decided to send weapons)

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Population of the EU is double Russia's.

& EU economy is much bigger.

The EU, with the USA backing it, should be able to overcome Russia economically or however, while avoiding a nuclear war !!

[wskill] 02/3/2022 10:39

Just started buying a few risk reward usually works out fine with these Russian shares did ok on their previous attacks on neighbouring countries seems to be in their DNA.

Its a great shame for the poor Ukrainians and Georgians its maybe about time they started realising that the USA will never help anyone but themselves they are nobody's friend only when it suits them.