Jpmorgan Brazil Investment Share Discussion Threads

[quepassa] 06/12/2020 08:13

For the Record.

The 72p referred to above is the INITIAL PAYMENT by the liquidators.

In the fullness of time, once all Trust fees, taxes, expenses and sundries have been fully tallied and paid, there may be a (modest) Final Payment.

On 10/11/20, the NAV was 74.3p - investors received an Initial distribution of 72p.

We don't know how much the liquidators received when selling the portfolio - and we don't know the final expenses- but maybe there is a penny or two still to come over time by way of Final Payment.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 02/12/2020 18:16

Liquidation proceeds @ 72p per share have today been received by my broker and credited.

[loganair] 27/11/2020 20:23

Aberdeen is 60% Equity / 40% Bonds which puts me off whereas Blackrock is 100% Equity.


Aberdeen 5.35% Yield - Blackrock 5.85% Yield so very similar there.


Aberdeen - Brazil 46%, Mexico 24.6%, Columbia 8.0%, Uruguay 6.3%, Peru 6.2%, Chile 4.7%, Argentina 3.8%.

Blackrock - Brazil 65%, Mexico 21.5%, Chile 5.1%, Argentina 4.8%, Peru 1.7%, Panama 0.9%......Talking about their next country investment being Venezuela.


Aberdeen 49% above 52 week low - Blackrock 46%
Aberdeen 24% below 52 week high - Blackrock 39%

Aberdeen 31% below all time high (July 2019)- Blackrock 46% (Aug 2017)

[quepassa] 27/11/2020 19:42

Don't follow....it was all in public RNS's and on JPAm BIT web pages

..one of the resolutions at the AGM was about the Trust's continuation which the Board had recommended to vote AGAINST due to Brazil political concerns

the resolution to continue was duly not passed and that kicked off the rapid winding-up of the Trust as per the immediate market RNS of 17th. September which was followed in due course by another market RNS on 16/10 concerning the Posting Of Circular to shareholders on this topic giving timetable and expenses etc for winding-up. The subsequent Circular had all the info.

i guess the lady you refer had spokenat the AGM before the voting on resolutions took place and in hope of the trust continuing as she didn't know for sure whether or not the continuation vote would pass or fail.

only know about the two LatAm trusts you mention.

[loganair] 27/11/2020 18:40

If you listen to the JPB AGM presentation in September the lady says she is looking forward to another year of investments for JPB and there was no inkling at that time that the trust would be round up and therefore I haven't been keeping an eye here.

Seeing you had posted QP was the first I knew about the voluntary liquidation.


I was wondering if you had any thoughts about any other Investment Trusts that invest in South America. I only know of Aberdeen Latin America which is 34% Latin American bonds and 66% Equity Shares and Blackrock Latin America which is 86% Brazil/Mexico.

[quepassa] 27/11/2020 17:47

news came today via an electronic corporate action notification came from my broker .

i bought in the depths of their 2016 crisis at 40p a few years ago - so happy enough at 72p.

good luck with your transfers to a new broker.

[loganair] 27/11/2020 17:13

QP - I'm a little rushed at the moment and only been able to take a quick look - where did you see that the shareholders will receive 72p per share?


Just think when JPB first IPO in 2009, it did so for 100p then quickly shot up to 120p. Sadly JPB never really lived up to what I thought it would - never mind at least I'm coming out with a small profit.

This is my 2nd share this month to do a voluntary liquidation, with return of monies to the shareholders + one take over just at the time when I'm having to change my broker due to my current broker no longer dealing with client from my tax jurisdiction and my shares are currently in mid transfer between brokers.

[quepassa] 27/11/2020 15:10

The liquidators of the Trust have now announced that shareholders will receive 72p per share.

Great result.


Official Pay date 2nd December 2020.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[loganair] 10/9/2020 13:22

Latin America:

The position in Latin America is more mixed, especially because many people there work in the informal economy. Not only does this make it more difficult to control the spread of the virus, as Carlos Gonzalez Lucar of RBC Wealth Management notes, but it also means that those who are unable to work are not covered by welfare and job-protection schemes, undermining confidence. Low levels of digital infrastructure in Latin American countries have also made it harder for people to shift both their consumption and their work online. The upshot has been some of the highest death tolls in the world and sharp downturns. The IMF expects the region’s economies to shrink by an average of 10% this year.

Still, even in the worst-affected Latin American economies there are positive signs that growth could bounce back, says Gala. Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro may have been widely criticised for his “obdurate̶1; handling of the crisis, and there is “little room” for fiscal policy to support growth, but economy minister Paulo Guedes is planning a series of privatisations, which have already led to many poorly performing state-owned firms moving to the private sector. This policy could “kick-start a major catch-up in terms of efficiency, especially in logistics, therefore transforming Brazil into a competitive producer”.

[loganair] 14/8/2020 10:27

Brazil drowns in its own debt by Alex Rankine:

With public-sector debt ballooning towards 100% of GDP, the state cannot afford generous fiscal support measures for much longer.

Brazil’s democracy is tearing at the seams, says Ryan Berg on aei.org. The country has just surpassed 100,000 coronavirus deaths, making it the world’s second worst-hit nation. The virus has deepened bitter political divisions. Embattled by Congressional opposition and Supreme Court probes, President Jair Bolsonaro’s supporters have called for a military coup. That’s unlikely, but political institutions, already discredited by massive corruption, are entering an advanced state of decay.

A second chance:

Bolsonaro’s election victory in October 2018 triggered euphoria in the stockmarket, with the benchmark Ibovespa index advancing 38% to January 2020. Yet shares then crashed a stomach-churning 43% as the pandemic hit. The market has since made up much of the lost ground, but is still down 12% for the year to date. That is a noticeable underperformance compared with the emerging-market average, down about 2%.

Bolsonaro’s first 18 months in office have been disappointing for the country’s business community, says Bryan Harris in the Financial Times. Last year’s pension changes aside, promised reforms have fallen by the wayside. Economic growth has remained anaemic. Yet recent weeks have seen investors’ old “ebullience221; return.

The proximate cause is a proposed tax reform, which should simplify one of the world’s most “byzantineR21; systems. Brazilian businesses are thought to spend an average of 2,000 hours complying with tax obligations, 20 times longer than their UK counterparts.

Another reason for the recent rally is that government stimulus has turned out to be more generous than expected. A signature crisis measure has been a 600-real (£84) monthly stipend paid to workers in the hard-hit informal economy. Finance minister Paulo Guedes, a disciple of Milton Friedman, has emerged as “the world’s most reluctant Keynesian”, say Martha Viotti Beck and Mario Segio Lima on Bloomberg. Long an advocate of fiscal rectitude, the pandemic has forced him to run Brazil’s “biggest-ever budget deficit”, predicted to be at least 11.5% of GDP this year.

The headwinds are considerable, says Craig Mellow in Barron’s. With public-sector debt “ballooning221; towards 100% of GDP, the state cannot afford generous fiscal support measures for much longer, says Alberto Ramos of Goldman Sachs. Brazil has “one of the weakest fiscal positions” of any emerging economy. Proposed tax reforms are badly needed, but Guedes will need to rally a majority in a fractious legislature. As Monica de Bolle of the Peterson Institute for International Economics puts it, talk of tax reform looks like an exercise in “shuffling deckchairs on the Titanic”.

[loganair] 26/12/2019 14:45

Brazil is now cracking down on corruption.

Brazil agriculture is first world and working best out of all Brazilian industries.

Infrastructure is worse, most goods still transported by road rather than rail. Not a lot of money going into infrastructure in Brazil.

Brazil needs more tourism and infrastructure for tourism.

[loganair] 03/11/2019 12:25

Fund managers now so positive on Brazil and yet the discount to Nav is running around 20%.

[loganair] 03/11/2019 12:19

From Fidelity to Schroders, Money Managers are Bullish on Brazil:


Global portfolio managers are growing optimistic on the outlook for Brazil’s stock market, as the Bolsonaro administration finally delivered a long-waited social security overhaul and is set to unveil the next priority on its economic agenda.

With pension reform out of the way, Economy Minister Paulo Guedes is expected to present a new agenda to Congress this week that focuses on tackling Brazil’s budget woes. It will probably include an administrative reform that restructures the civil service and cuts initial salaries, and may create a fiscal council to oversee federal, state and municipal budgets.

“The prospects for equities in Brazil are bright given where we are in the economic cycle -- early -- as well as significant progress on the reform side, and attractive valuations,” said Will Pruett, who manages $542 million at Fidelity Management in Boston. Economists are expecting growth in Latin America’s largest economy to pick up to around 2% in 2020, more than double the expected rate this year, as the central bank lowers interest rates to fresh lows.

Brazil is Schroders Plc’s preferred stock market in the region, according to Pablo Riveroll in London, the head of Latin American equities at the firm. The benchmark Ibovespa index has advanced 22% since the beginning of the year and some early signals of increased foreign interest are starting to emerge, after offshore investors missed most of the recent rally.

“After years of weak economic growth and weak earnings momentum, the economy needs to accelerate to gather interest,” said Riveroll. “We think the conditions are there or almost there: pension reform approval, credible fiscal outlook, increasing confidence, low interest rates and inflation, and low leverage at the corporate and household level.”

Here’s how investors have been playing Brazilian stocks:

Fidelity, Pruett:

Largest positions in Brazil are discretionary, industrial and health-care sectorsOptimistic on education, airlines, integrated health-care players, “as well as any business poised to benefit from the long-term migration of savings from government securities into higher risk products in search of yield.”

Schroders, Riveroll:

Likes Brazilian retailers, homebuilders, non-bank financials, tech and utilitiesUnderweight banks, materials and consumer staples. Has recently added to retailers; took some profits on homebuilders and reduced banks.

Alliance Bernstein, Morgan Harting:

Owns groups such as utilities that should benefit from government reforms, including Cia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo, Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras SA and Equatorial Energia SA. Also likes Yduqs Part, B3 SA - Brasil Bolsa Balcao and Petroeo Brasileiro SA“We’re light on the bigger benchmark banks,” he said.

[loganair] 25/10/2019 14:55

Rogério Marinho, the government’s social security secretary, says the finally passed long-awaited pension reform — which will increase retirement age to 65 for men and 62 for women, from 56 and 53, respectively — represents an 800 billion real ($194 billion) in savings over the next decade, plus 270 billion real of ancillary savings over the same period.

“This is a big number. It is a good result,” says David Beker, chief economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in São Paulo. The pension reform should prevent the government’s debt ratio from rising over the coming years — a concern in a country where gross public debt could have topped 120 percent of GDP “if reforms are not implemented,” the International Monetary Fund warned in July.

What’s next?

Many international businesses have held back from investing in Brazil until the reform passed, viewing it as a litmus test for whether Guedes and his team would be able to pass a broader economic agenda, including a comprehensive overhaul of the country’s byzantine tax system. Many hope the passage of the pension reform will restore confidence in the Brazilian economy.

However, Vladimir Caramaschi do Vale, chief economist for Latin America at Indosuez Wealth Management, warns that Brazil “needs to keep pushing through other reforms” if it really wants to unlock investments.

Analysts warn that the positive reform momentum may dwindle if the economy does not pick up steam next year, and if Bolsonaro’s approval ratings continue to drop. With the pension overhaul finished, the urgency that underpinned it may vanish. A risk, according to Monica de Bolle, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, is that the firebrand president could turn “his big mouth” on his economic team, hampering further reforms.

“I am somewhat concerned about the political obstacles facing the next stage of reforms. There seems to be more opposition than there was against pension reform, and not the same urgency,” says William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics.

[loganair] 07/10/2019 13:46

Brazil has privatized or sold state assets worth $23.5 billion in the first nine months of the year, already surpassing its full-year target of $20 billion, the country's economy ministry said.

Brazil's government has made clear it will reduce the state's footprint in the economy via asset sales, privatizations and concessions across a range of sectors, all of which it hopes will attract foreign investment into the country.

[loganair] 23/9/2019 09:53

Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro on Friday sanctioned the Economic Freedom Act (MPLE), mostly known as "the mini labor reform", a proposal whose main objective is to facilitate investments by reducing the regulations employers must comply with.

[loganair] 14/9/2019 12:32

In 10 years Brazil could become the 4th largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia, USA and Russia.

[loganair] 19/7/2019 13:25

TPW Investment likes China and Brazil out of all the emerging markets.

[loganair] 16/7/2019 20:31

Moody's: Consumers are fueling the gradual recovery of Brazil's economy:

-Consumers contributing the largest share of total economic output in Brazil, driving the economy's entire growth cycle

-GDP recovery and low inflation add purchasing power to wage increases

Similarly to most of the world's major economies, consumers contribute the largest share of total economic activity in Brazil and drive GDP. According to Moody's Investors Service in a new report, employment growth, low inflation, improving retail sales and rising consumer credit in a lower interest environment is supporting the gradual recovery of Brazil's economy.

"In Brazil, employment growth is key to supporting consumption growth," says Moody's Senior Vice President Gersan Zurita. "Employment has been gradually improving since the end of the economic recession, with a rising share of the population slowly returning to the workforce. Furthermore, rising real wages coupled with low inflation and well-anchored inflation expectations is adding to consumer purchasing power."

Retail sales are gradually improving as consumer confidence recovers after the recession. Broad retail sales, which include building materials and vehicles sales, have slightly recovered since the end of the recession but remain well below the cyclical peak reached in 2013. Conversely, the slow recovery in vehicles sales remains disappointing, with sales below the levels predating the recession. On the other hand, the outlook for housing looks more promising, with a more visible recovery in both units sold and values than consumer goods.

Despite the slow recovery in consumption, the demand for consumer credit has continued to rise in both nominal terms and as a share of GDP. Moody's expects demand for consumer credit to continue to rise moderately in the next two years, particularly if the reforms succeed in Congress, which will enable rates to shift lower.

[loganair] 11/7/2019 08:58

Threadneedle Investments - Out look for the Brazilian market looks interesting as the Government is pro-business.