Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Jpmorgan Brazil Investment Trust Plc LSE:JPB London Ordinary Share GB00B602HS43 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.0% 66.50 64.50 68.50 66.50 66.50 66.50 10,334 08:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Equity Investment Instruments 0.6 0.1 0.1 511.5 25

Jpmorgan Brazil Investment Share Discussion Threads

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Brazil: Growth recovery is slowing down - BBVA: Analysts at the Research Department at BBVA, lowered their growth forecast for the Brazilian economy for 2019 and 2020. They expected USD/BRL to rise to 3.95 by year-end. Key Quotes: “The deceleration in the world economy, as well as slow and limited progress in the local adoption of economic reforms –particularly in the social security- will limit the economy’s capacity for growth in the coming years.” “We expect GDP to grow 1.8% in both 2019 and 2020, slightly above the 1.1% growth recorded in each of the previous two years. Our forecast for 2019 has been adjusted downwards by 0.4 p.p., mainly due to poor incoming activity data, while the forecast for 2020 has remained constant Inflation will remain relatively under control, but will be higher going forward than in the previous two years. The progressive - albeit timid - recovery in domestic demand, the depreciation of the exchange rate and the normalization of food prices will contribute to the upward trend in domestic inflation.” “The SELIC interest rate will remain at the current expansionary level for a long period. While weak domestic demand and the more accommodative tone of monetary policy in the US make an upward adjustment unlikely in the short term, rising inflation and fiscal risks leave little room for cuts.” “The shift towards more accommodative policies by the main central banks has reduced financial tensions in both global and local markets. Thus, the exchange rate has neared US$3.8 and could remain close to this level for some time. But the slow progress of both the economy and reforms, as well as the deterioration in the terms of trade, support the forecast of depreciation up to 3.95 at the end of 2019 and 4.05 at the end of 2020.”
HSBC say they like Emerging Markets and they like India, China and Brazil most of all.
There are two simple reasons for the sell-off: one, profit taking. The first sign of weakness in the government was bound to trigger a sell-off. Brazil’s been a money maker since Jair Bolsonaro was elected in October, so why not take some money off the table the first sign of duress? This has been going on since February. The second reason is politics: Investors are less confident in key reforms, especially pension reform. There is no united front rallying around Bolsonaro on anything related to the economy. Earlier this week, Barclays Capital lowered its growth forecast for Brazil to 2.2%, rising to 2.6% next year.
The Brazilian government wants trade to represent 30 percent of the country’s gross domestic product by the end of 2022, with one official saying on Wednesday it will get there on the back of President Jair Bolsonaro’s liberalization plans. According to the International Monetary Fund, Brazil’s trade flows, including exports and imports, average around 25 percent of its GDP, which makes the country one of the least open among the G20 group of the world’s most industrialized nations.
Brazilian stock market reaches another all time high.
Latin America: A region with challenges by Scott Hazelton: Brazil’s economic outlook is clouded by political and policy uncertainties. Bolsonaro, the new President of Brazil, will soon have to deal with a sizable fiscal deficit fuelled by a growing shortfall in the nation’s pension system. In principle his agenda is pro-business, but he may lack the ability to bring consensus and pass much needed reforms in Congress. We expect delays and changes to the already proposed pension and tax reforms, and this will delay investment projects. The outlook for Brazil is one of sluggish growth. Although we forecast acceleration in 2019, we expect only mild pension reform and businesses will not be convinced that the country will see fiscal consolidation. It may take three to four years to bring the fiscal deficit to manageable levels (below 3% of GDP). Apart from pension reform, the government will have to implement fiscal reform to simplify the tax system. One advantage in the region is the so-called demographic bonus: all countries in the region have relatively large and young populations, which are expected to support economic growth in the next 10–15 years. However, challenges do lie ahead, namely the ability of the economies to make use of this future labour force.
hTtps:// Good historical base rates here. Not sure the carry trade is happening on the scale it used to. I do expect Brazil to rocket in the coming years IF (big if) they can a) get the pension reforms through and b) sort out the ludicrously complicated tax system EDIT: and c) have a crack at reducing capital controls So much potential, but a mountain to climb to get there
bishan bedi
I understand that money is also flowing into Brazil as a 'carry trade' due to their high interest rates.
The new president of Brazil has put forward a plan to revamp the country's pension system - tackling a reform considered critical to boosting growth of South America's biggest economy. The proposal would set a minimum retirement age of 65 for men and 62 for women, among other changes. The proposal include a sharp tightening in the granting of welfare benefits and an increase in the social security contribution rate for different salary ranges. "We need to change the rules of the pension system," said Leonardo Rolim, the official responsible for pensions at the Economy Ministry. "People are living longer and women have fewer children, which means that the working population will decrease."
After any pension reforms there'll then need to be Labour/Employment and Tax reforms
Brazil's retail sales, one of the country's economic engines, grew 2.3 percent in 2018 over the previous year, the best result since 2013. For this largest economy in Latin America, the economic growth rate will be 2.5 percent in 2019, according to the forecasts by the financial markets.
The newly elected speaker of the lower house, Rodrigo Maia, said this week that pension reform will be the first item on Brazil’s legislative agenda and could be approved in both chambers by July. Guedes said on Thursday that various options will be put to President Jair Bolsonaro. Guedes said the measures they are examining will form a comprehensive package. The size, shape and scope of the government’s plan to overhaul Brazil’s social security system, which Economy Minister Paulo Guedes said could save the state around 1 trillion reais ($270 billion) in a decade, is still to be determined.
Once the Pension reforms have gone through I can see this being positive for the JPB share price on 3 fronts: 1. The continued rise in the Brazilian stock market. 2. The strengthening of the Brazilian currency. 3. Postive sentiment returning thereby reducing the discount to Nav. I can see of no good reason why these three could not see a rise of 20% from here in the share price of JPB.
Accept your good point as I didn't take the difference in the exchange rate into account. I still hope as sentinment in the Brazilian economy improves that the discount to Nav will narrow which could add 10p to the JPB share price.
"Personal note - Considering the Brazilan stock market is at an all time high, JPB is 44% off from its all time high shows me how poorly the managers of JPB have done and are doing." Real in 2011 was 2.7 to £, now 4.8 so although the index is at a high its measured in Reals not sterling. Similar to Turkey situation.
Brazil stocks scaled an all-time high on Wednesday and the currency firmed, boosted by the country's economy minister reiterating that much needed pension reforms remained the government's top priority. In Brazil, the real rose 1.3 percent and posted its biggest one-day gain in three weeks, while the benchmark Bovespa index scaled new highs with gains being broad-based. Brazil's economy minister Paulo Guedes told Bloomberg TV that pension reforms are the government's top priority and that more than half of the fiscal deficit will be cut with the reform. He also said that intended privatizations should generate at least $20 billion in 2019. "Guedes once again enchanted the market," said an analyst at a brokerage in São Paulo. Guedes was to participate in a press conference along with the Brazilian delegation at the World Economic Forum but the talk was canceled, with representatives of the government citing President Jair Bolsonaro's fatigue. But, meetings between Guedes and some foreign investors on Tuesday may have been enough to get the message out about reforms and explain the theme of investor reforms, said Fernanda Consorte, an FX strategist at Banco Ourinvest. Personal note - Considering the Brazilan stock market is at an all time high, JPB is 44% off from its all time high shows me how poorly the managers of JPB have done and are doing. Hopefully when the pension reforms look as though they are going to happen will cause positive sentiment to return to JPB considerably reducing the Discount to NAV.
JP Morgan’s global equity strategists are positive on emerging markets versus developed markets this year, but are ‘neutral’; on China whereas they prefer Brazil, Chile, Russia and Indonesia. In addition the analysts say global emerging markets are cheap, trading at lower price-to-earnings ratios than in their last bear market in 2015-16.
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